Attention! Attention! Attention!

The PCE price index data for May in the United States will be released at 8:30 tonight. PCE is the most concerned inflation data of the Federal Reserve, without a doubt, and will directly affect the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

PCE is the abbreviation of Personal Consumption Expenditures, which is an important economic indicator to measure the spending of American consumers on goods and services. The PCE index, especially the core PCE index, is regarded by the Federal Reserve as one of the key indicators for measuring inflation.

Composition of the PCE index

The PCE index covers a wide range of goods and services, including durable goods (such as automobiles and appliances), non-durable goods (such as food and clothing), and services (such as health care and financial services).

From the specific composition ratio in the figure below, we can see that

● Housing 19.4%

● Medical 16.5%

● Gasoline and other energy 10.7%

● Financial services and insurance 8.4%

These four are the most important in the PCE price index, accounting for 55%!

In May, the U.S. second-hand housing contract volume index and existing home contract sales index both fell more than expected; U.S. oil prices also fell slightly, lower than in April; second-hand car insurance contracts also fell. Overall, PCE will decline in May.

The forecast value is 2.6, which is indeed 0.2 lower than 2.8 in April.

From the perspective of the impact on risky assets, the probability of PCE rising is very low, and it is likely to meet or be lower than the forecast value, which will bring certain benefits.

Wait for the PCE data tonight!

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