6.12 Bitcoin continues to plummet! Can the Fed's interest rate meeting reverse the situation?

Bitcoin has started two consecutive plunges in the past few days. The lowest point of yesterday's decline was around 66,000. The current price rebounded by 1,500 points and returned to around 67,500. In the short term, it can be seen that the current price seems to be resisted here and has not been able to rebound upward!

The market in the past two days is not our main concern. We should pay more attention to the news. As shown in the above figure, the US Congress will announce the core inflation rate in May at 8:30 this evening, and then there will be the Fed's interest rate decision at 2 a.m., and of course the Fed's press conference at 2:30 a.m. These are all news that will affect the current price.

Before the announcement of major news, the technical side is often not fully referenced. Once the news is different from the previous expectations, the market will destroy the current technical structure in most cases. So if there is no special grasp, I think it is best to avoid trading in this situation.

At present, we can probably know that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States has increased before, as we mentioned in the last issue, so the current expectation is that the Federal Reserve will most likely not cut interest rates this time, and the market generally expects that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged at this interest rate meeting.

However, before the interest rate is announced, we can know the inflation data for May in advance at 8:30. If inflation is still very high, the interest rate cut cycle may continue to be postponed, which also means that it is bad news, and prices may fall in advance at that time.

It is also possible that due to excessive inflation, it is not impossible to continue to raise interest rates, but the probability of this situation should be very small. I have read a lot of analysis articles, and most of them did not mention this situation. Most people just think that if inflation is too high, the interest rate cut will continue to be postponed, because the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will start to decide to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points in the September meeting.

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6.11 Bitcoin failed to break through! The plunge started! When to go short?

In the previous article, we thought that Bitcoin was likely to break through the key upper resistance and rise strongly, but in the evening of the same day, there was a wave of news, which we could not have expected!

That is, the United States announced the non-farm payrolls in May in the evening. The data released at that time was higher than the previous market expectations. Of course, this is good news for the American society, but for the Federal Reserve, they will think that the current benchmark interest rate is appropriate, so they will postpone the interest rate cut. We all know that interest rate cuts are actually a big release of money, and more funds will flow into the investment market. Then the postponement of interest rate cuts means that large funds will enter the market later, so it is bearish for the current Bitcoin, and then the price began to plummet.

​After a few days of sideways trading, the subsequent price began to break down again in the morning of today. ​The current price has fallen below 68,000.

​Then from the current daily situation, the position where the price fell at this time is still supported, which is a trend line support level, as shown in the figure. So from the current situation, it is not very suitable to go short directly. Of course, if you went short when it was sideways before, I think you can still hold this short order now.

But if you didn't go short before, I think going short now is going to be short on the floor, which is more dangerous! If you want to continue to go short, you can wait for the price to continue to break down, and then try it in the short term. It will be better to go short after breaking this key trend line support!

Then I also drew it on the chart. In fact, after breaking this current trend line, the price still has a lot of room to fall. After breaking this trend line, our next downside target can be seen from this trend line below.

#BTC走势预测

6.7 Bitcoin is likely to break through today! How should we choose to get on board?

Yesterday we saw that Bitcoin's macd at the four-hour level was about to form a dead cross, so we thought that the price might be likely to give a callback. Combined with the fact that the Bitcoin price was at the upper rail of the Bollinger Band at the four-hour level at that time, if it was callback, it would most likely be callback to the middle rail.

Then we can also see from the current market that yesterday's price failed to break through a small wave, and then stepped on the middle rail of the Bollinger Band at the four-hour level, and then the price began to rebound. The current Bitcoin price has returned to around 71,500.

At present, the K-line at the four-hour level has also shown a continuous positive trend. From the current macd below the four-hour level, the fast and slow lines have formed a dead cross, but it can also be observed from the red volume column below. Because the price rebounded, the red volume column has a trend of shrinking, which means that the macd fast and slow lines have the opportunity to form a golden cross again above the zero axis.
According to this trend, today's rebound is likely to be able to break through the previous high successfully.

Because we have always said that Bitcoin has a five-wave model on the daily chart, and the current price is in the fifth wave. According to the previous rising trend of the previous waves, the price of the fifth wave may reach the position of 77,000.

So under the current situation of very good indicators, today's price may directly break through successfully, and the trend of the fifth wave will appear in the next few days.

Now there is another question, which is how to enter the market. I believe that many people may not get on the bus. As shown in the figure, because the price gave a relatively deep correction yesterday and came to the position of 70,000, in the short term, the current price has formed a channel downward, and the current rebound is almost at the top of the channel.

Then it is certain that there should be resistance at this position. If you get on the bus at this time, it is likely to become a situation of going long at the ceiling. So you can be more stable and wait for the breakthrough of this channel before getting on the bus, or you can also wait for the fast and slow lines of the macd to form a golden cross according to the situation of our four-hour level macd just now. Get on the bus!

#BTC走势预测

6.6 Short-term breakthrough failed! Will Bitcoin give a chance to get on board?

From yesterday evening to early morning, Bitcoin had a trend of breaking through and rising. The highest price of Bitcoin reached 71,600, but it failed to break through successfully. The price was adjusted again, but the amplitude of the adjustment is not very large so far. The current price of Bitcoin is around 71,000.

From the perspective of form, Bitcoin is still in a channel upward trend. As shown in the figure, the current price has not fallen below the channel. The price has only reached the bottom of the channel. Although the upward channel is a bearish trend and a bearish pattern, such an upward channel often appears in the process of rising. The price may try to continue to break through this bearish pattern. If it can break through such a bearish pattern, it can rise against the trend. It can also show from the side that the upward trend is very strong.

Then from the macd below, it is currently at the one-hour level. It can be found that the macd fast and slow lines form a dead cross above the zero axis and then the double lines begin to move towards the zero axis, but the current fast and slow lines have not fallen below the zero axis but are close to the zero axis. Then it can be found that the current short-term red volume column is beginning to shrink, which means that today at the one-hour level, the macd fast and slow lines have the opportunity to form a golden cross above the zero axis.

Then we often say that the macd zero axis is above the bullish area. If the golden cross continues to form in the bullish area, then there is a high probability that there will be another wave of rising trends. You can pay attention to this signal. There may be an opportunity to get on the train in the short term!

Then let's take a look at the situation at the four-hour level. At present, it can also be found that the four-hour period begins to appear with a negative line and begins to pull back. From the Bollinger band, the current price is near the upper rail of the Bollinger band. If the price pulls back next, it may pull back to the middle rail of the Bollinger band. At present, the middle rail of the Bollinger band is around 70,000.

Then let's take a look at the macd at the four-hour level. We can also find that the macd fast and slow lines currently have a trend of forming a death cross. Combined with the one-hour level, the one-hour level has already formed a death cross, and the four-hour level may also follow this trend. If the four-hour level forms a death cross above the zero axis and gives a pullback, then the price may pull back deeper. However, being able to form a death cross above the four-hour level macd and give a pullback is not a particularly bad situation.

That is to say, if a dead cross is formed above the zero axis of the four-hour level, there is still a chance for the fast and slow lines to form a golden cross again above the zero axis of the four-hour level MACD. Before the fast and slow lines of the four-hour MACD break below the zero axis, it can be seen as a correction trend. If the golden cross above the zero axis of the one-hour level cannot be formed and the upward trend cannot be started, then we will wait for the formation of a dead cross at the four-hour level, and then form a golden cross again, and then follow the opportunity to rise!

#BTC走势分析

6.5 The current rise is very good! Is Bitcoin about to break through the historical high?

Bitcoin suddenly showed an upward trend last night, rising directly from around 68,800. The current price has reached around 71,000. From the recent Bitcoin triangle, the current price has broken through this triangle.

Then as shown in the figure, the next resistance of Bitcoin's rise is around 72,000. This wave is a rise after breaking through the triangle, and it is about to test the resistance of the previous high point. So can it break through smoothly?

We need to continue to observe from the daily level. In the previous article, we mentioned that the daily level is following a five-wave model. After confirming the rebound, the price is actually following the fifth wave of rise. So I currently think that there is a high probability that it is following the fifth wave of rise.
According to the rise of the fifth wave, I think it is no problem to break through the previous high resistance of 72,000. That is to say, I think the price will break through this place very smoothly.

Generally speaking, from the five-wave model, the rise of the third wave is the highest, but the rise of the fifth wave is also not weak. I have marked the rise of the third wave in the figure. Bitcoin has risen by nearly 20%. We can also predict the rise of the fifth wave.

At present, I think the rise of the fifth wave may be around 15%, which is also marked in the figure above. It can also be clearly seen that the fifth wave with a 15% increase easily broke through the resistance of 72,000. The expected rise target is about 77,000.

Then we can also clearly see from the macd indicator below that the macd fast and slow lines are currently forming a golden cross trend above the zero axis. The zero axis represents the bullish area. The fast and slow lines can form a golden cross above the zero axis. I think the next rise will be very strong.

So we have analyzed the current situation overall and found that the rise is very good! We can look forward to Bitcoin breaking through the historical high next!

#BTC走势分析

6.4 Bitcoin is currently rising well! The five-wave rise is coming!

In yesterday's article, we mentioned that Bitcoin had a five-wave rise model, and in yesterday's market, we also saw that Bitcoin stepped back to a more critical moving average position. That is, the middle track position of the Bollinger band at the daily level, and there was a good rebound trend at that time.

Then, last night, Bitcoin also saw a relatively strong rise, temporarily breaking through the 70,000 position, but the price was not able to stabilize at 70,000, and it gave a relatively fast callback. The current price is around 69,000.

Then, from the form we saw before, that is, the triangle pattern that Bitcoin is currently moving in, it can be found that the previous price stepped back to the trend line at the bottom of this triangle pattern, and a rebound trend appeared smoothly. Then this round of rebound trend is actually quite strong. We can see that it broke through the trend line above this triangle. Although it is a false breakthrough, it is definitely very strong.

If we continue to analyze the current market from the perspective of the triangle pattern, the price will most likely still have to retrace the bottom of the triangle, because from the current market, the triangle may not be completed yet.

And it has just made a false breakthrough on the upper trend line, so from the perspective of the triangle pattern, the price may pull back again and then rise, but we must pay attention to the next wave of rise, which may be an opportunity for a surge, because we can analyze the next rising trend in combination with the rise of the fifth wave we mentioned just now.

Then this situation may appear tonight or tomorrow, everyone must pay attention to it. If you miss it again, the market may continue to fluctuate, and everyone must continue to wait patiently. ​
#BTC走势分析

6.3 Pay attention to the breakthrough signal! The big surge will come again!

Last week, we mentioned the key triangle of Bitcoin. Now it seems that Bitcoin has not come out. Although there was a downward trend in the past two days, it is certain that it was a false break. The subsequent market price will continue to rebound gradually at the bottom of the triangle.

At present, the overall price rebound speed at the bottom of the triangle is still relatively slow. It may be that the bulls are hesitant, or it may be because of the weekend. The overall price fluctuation is relatively small, but it is certain that in the short term, the overall price is rebounding, which is likely to be a start signal for a surge.

Because at the daily level, after this round of bottom rebound, the price presents a very standard wave model structure. As shown in the figure, the current callback trend is a callback of the fourth wave, and the price has also begun to rebound in the short term, brewing a rise in the fifth wave.
At present, it seems that the probability of the fifth wave is very high. Everyone can pay attention to catch a rise in the fifth wave.

Then we continue to look at the situation of the Bollinger Bands from the daily level. We can find that the current price callback, that is, the callback of the fourth wave we just mentioned, is now just stepping on the middle track of the Bollinger Bands at the daily level. This is a very good position.

And at present, we can also find that today's daily line is still good. The overall trend is a rebound. Although it has not closed yet, the overall Yang line entity is still very good. Of course, we can wait for it to show a better trend further, that is, wait for tomorrow's daily line to close and see if it is a perfect daily breakthrough signal.

​Because according to the rise we expected in the fifth wave just now, the price will rise very high. Even if the current price shows a trend of breaking through and rebounding, it should be only a small rebound, and the price will not rise very high. There will still be opportunities to enter the market later, and there will still be profits later.

​But your further waiting can give you a higher winning rate!

#BTC走势分析

5.31 Bitcoin trend is running steadily! Pay attention to the breakout and surge trend that may come at any time!

Yesterday we mentioned that Bitcoin is looking for a triangle trend, so at present, the price is rebounding in this triangle trend, because we also saw yesterday that the price just came to the bottom of this triangle, so according to the trend of the triangle, the price should rebound and continue to rise.

Then yesterday, the highest price of Bitcoin rebounded to around 69,500. From the four-hour level, the upper resistance is still very strong because you can see that there is a four-hour K-line above 69,000, but in the end it was a K-line with a long upper shadow.

So now we combine the analysis of yesterday's article, the current price is following the trend we expected, so it can be said that the current trend is running well. Similarly, we can also see that in the indicator macd below, the fast and slow lines are forming a golden cross trend below the zero axis. At present, the green long volume column is also increasing in volume.

After the fast and slow lines form a golden cross, they can cross the zero axis. At that time, it should be confirmed that the bullish trend will start and the price may surge, so everyone must pay attention to it.

Of course, there is another situation that we must also understand. If the price rebounds to the top of the triangle and fails to reach the top, it will start to test the bottom of the triangle downward. In this case, it means that the rebound is weak and the bulls cannot push the price to the target position. It proves that the bulls are weak and the bears start to fight back. In this case, the price is likely to fall through the triangle, and the downward trend will start!

Of course, I think the probability of this happening is still relatively low, because we can observe from the Bollinger Band indicator at the four-hour level that the current price is above the middle track of the Bollinger Band at the four-hour level, so when the price does not fall through the middle track of the Bollinger Band at the four-hour level, we do not need to consider the possibility of falling through.

#BTC走势分析

5.30 Bitcoin appears in a triangle pattern! Pay attention to the trend of rebound breakthrough!

Bitcoin did not successfully break through the middle track of the four-hour Bollinger band yesterday. It failed to break through and started to fall directly. However, it only slightly fell below the previous low point in the end. In the early morning, the price advantage continued to rebound. Now it is back to the middle track of the four-hour Bollinger band and tries to break through the middle track of the Bollinger band.

The current price is around 68100. From the macd below, the current fast and slow lines are below the zero axis, but the current red short volume column is now shrinking, which means that it is going to continue to form a golden cross trend. So it is still in the rebound stage. It depends on whether this rebound can return to the long area.

For example, after the macd fast and slow lines form a golden cross, the double lines come above the zero axis, and the double lines enter the long area, or the price breaks through the middle track of the four-hour Bollinger band and comes to the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger band. It is the long area!

The same situation actually occurred yesterday, but the price failed to break through successfully in the end. So now that we see this situation again, the best way for us is to be more stable and continue to wait for the emergence of stronger bullish signals.

Then we continue to look at the four-hour level, but we hide the indicator signal. As shown in the figure, it can be clearly found that the current price trend presents a converging triangle pattern, and we can also clearly see that the current price is just at the bottom of the triangle pattern.

Then according to the trend of the triangle pattern, the next price should continue to rebound to the top of the triangle. Although this wave of rebound may still not be able to show a trend, from the perspective of the triangle pattern, there should be a rebound trend first.

#BTC走势分析

5.29 Bitcoin currently has a chance to break through! Pay attention to the price entering the bullish advantage area!

The current price of Bitcoin is around 68600. From the four-hour level, the price began to fluctuate after the previous wave of increases. It can be seen that the price has been fluctuating in the Bollinger band. If it cannot break through the upper rail position, it will test the lower rail position. If the lower rail position cannot be broken, the price will test the upper rail again, and the cycle will repeat.

The current price just came to the lower rail position of the Bollinger band and started to rebound after receiving support. At present, the price just came to the middle rail position of the four-hour Bollinger band and encountered resistance, but according to the previous oscillating market, the price should definitely continue to test the upper rail position of the Bollinger band.

And from the macd below, the current fast and slow lines are in a dead cross state and have come below the zero axis, which belongs to the short area, but now you can see that the red short volume column is shrinking, which means that there is a high probability of forming a golden cross trend, and the price has the opportunity to break through the middle track position of the four-hour Bollinger band, or in other words, the price breaks through the middle track position of the four-hour Bollinger band, then macd will form a golden cross trend.

Of course, I suggest that you wait for the bullish signal to stabilize before entering the market, so that the winning rate will be higher, so you can wait for the four-hour macd to form a golden cross, or after the golden cross is formed, the fast and slow lines come above the zero axis before entering the market, which is more stable! In terms of price, you can wait for the price to come to the area above the middle track of the four-hour Bollinger band before entering the market, because it is considered a long area.​

Then let's take a look at the daily level. Now we can see that the daily MACD fast and slow lines are still in a golden cross trend, but the signs of turning downward are already very obvious, and we can also see that the green bullish volume column is shrinking very strongly at this time, so the daily MACD indicator is not very good at present.

From the daily Bollinger Bands, the current situation is sideways fluctuations, but the price has not yet pulled back to the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, so there is still a chance to support it, but if you want to be bullish in the short term, I think you still have to see the four-hour level price and indicators enter the bullish area, because the situation at the daily level is not very good.

#BTC走势分析

5.24 Ethereum is still very strong! The callback is almost over and the surge is about to start?

Bitcoin was not able to support the middle track of the Bollinger Band at the 4-hour level yesterday, but fell directly to the lower track of the Bollinger Band at the 4-hour level. The lowest price was around 66,000, and the current price is around 67,500.

From the MACD below, yesterday the price was at the 4-hour level, and when the Bollinger Band was at the middle track, the red volume column of the MACD did show signs of shrinking volume, but the MACD fast and slow lines did not form a golden cross trend, and the price also fell rapidly, directly from the 4-hour level unconnected middle track to the 4-hour level connected lower track.

At present, the 4-hour MACD fast and slow lines are trending downward. The fast line has touched the 0 axis position, but the slow line has not, but the current situation is very pessimistic for bulls. If the price continues to fall today, and the fast and slow lines of the MACD at the 4-hour level fall through the zero axis position, then the market is likely to turn into a downward trend!

Then let's take a look at the situation of Ethereum. Ethereum is currently very strong. It can be seen that since the last round of rise, Bitcoin has experienced a very large correction so far, but Ethereum has basically not had a correction. It can be seen that after its price reached a high level, it has basically been in a sideways trend. It can also be seen that there was a wave of downward spikes before, but the price quickly recovered.

From the MACD below, because Ethereum's previous rise was very strong and rose a lot, its MACD double line is at a relatively high position. Although it is now a dead cross trend, the double line is correcting downward, but according to the general market trend, the current correction time has been very long.

It should be able to return to the upward trend soon and initiate another round of upward trend. Although the time is uncertain, because the correction time has been very long, it is ready to start the next round of rise at any time, so we can boldly speculate that before the next round of rise, the MACD fast and slow lines at the 4-hour level of Ethereum will be difficult to pull back to below the 0 axis.

So because the 0 axis is above the bullish area, the MACD fast and slow lines can form a golden cross again above the 0 axis, then there is no doubt that this upward trend will be very strong next, so everyone can pay attention to the situation of Ethereum.

#BTC走势分析

The current price of Bitcoin is around 69,500. The previous wave of Bitcoin's breakthrough and rise was very strong, but now it has started a trend of oscillating callback.

From the 4-hour level, the current price has callback to the middle track of the Bollinger Band. There are signs of a small rebound, but it is not very obvious. The price may fall below the middle track of the 4-hour Bollinger Band at any time.

Then from the MACD below, the current MACD fast and slow lines are in a dead cross trend. The current fast and slow lines are moving towards the zero axis, indicating that the current trend is to return to the zero axis and callback. Then the red short volume column below the MACD currently has signs of shrinking. The shrinking volume means that the fast and slow lines may begin to form a golden cross trend. If the fast and slow lines can form a golden cross above the zero axis, then it is very likely that the previous market is the same as the market before the previous wave of rise. After the red volume shrinks, the golden cross is formed, and the price will start a new round of rise!

So in the current situation, if you want to follow the trend of the next round, you can pay attention to the shrinking volume of the four-hour MACD volume column, or wait for the MACD fast and slow lines to form a golden cross, and then get on the train after the golden cross above the zero axis is formed to follow the trend of the next round.

Then from the Bollinger Band, if the price falls below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, then you have to be careful. I think if the price falls below the middle track of the Bollinger Band at the 4-hour level, it is very likely to continue to fall to the position of the lower track. If this happens, you have to wait for the support rebound of the lower track of the Bollinger Band.

Of course, if the price directly falls below the middle track of the Bollinger Band at the 4-hour level, then you don’t have to panic. If other conditions are good, then the price returns to the top of the middle track of the Bollinger Band at the 4-hour level, then it is still a bullish trend.

#BTC走势分析

5.21 Ethereum has a terrifying increase! Is the second round of cryptocurrency surge about to start? Is the altcoin season coming?

Bitcoin has seen a huge increase in the early morning today, and the current price has reached around 71,000. In this round of Bitcoin's increase, the increase is close to 9% in two days.

Ethereum's increase is even more terrifying, with an increase of 21% in two days. I think this is a very huge increase, as Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency.
In recent years, our article analysis has always mentioned the opportunity for bulls to get on board, and every day we remind everyone to pay attention to the signal of breakthrough and rise. I don't know whether everyone has grasped this wave of market conditions.

In this round of early morning surge, our member community perfectly grasped the rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and both got profits from the two increases. As for Ethereum, because its situation was not particularly good before, its market was not particularly strong, so our target profit stop position was not very high.

Although we didn’t get much profit from Ethereum, we didn’t miss out on this wave of market. I believe that many people actually missed out on this wave of market, because whether in the comment area of ​​my video or in other communities, I have seen many people who are bearish on the current market and think that the bull market is over.

But I have clearly expressed in my videos and articles before that I think this bull market is definitely not over. It is a very simple truth. You can imagine that the bear market in the past two years lasted for a very long time, then everyone should be able to know that it takes a lot of time to reverse the trend.

But the current bull market has not actually been running for a long time. If you want to reverse this trend, I think it will take a very long time, and there will need to be a lot of bearish signals. The current oscillation time does not meet the conditions for reversal.
#BTC

5.20 Bitcoin has a chance to break through today! Pay attention to the signal!

From a short-term perspective, Bitcoin had a wave of failed breakthroughs last night. After failing to break through, the price began to pull back downwards, but so far the price has not started a downward trend. The price has pulled back to around 65,800 and then began to rebound slightly. It seems that the price will continue to try to break through upwards today.

But we must also be careful. If the breakthrough continues to fail this time, the price will most likely start to fall again.

Then we look at the four-hour chart. After this wave of failed breakthroughs, the price fell directly below the middle track of the four-hour Bollinger band, but it rebounded before it completely fell to the lower track. Now the price has begun to show signs of pausing. We can clearly find that the position where the pause is blocked is the middle track of the Bollinger band.

If the price continues to rise and stands on the middle track of the Bollinger band, then I think today's price has a chance to break through successfully. That is to say, after the price comes above the middle track, we can find an opportunity to go long, and at that time the price is likely to break through directly!
But if the price falls back below the middle track and reaches the lower track, the rising situation is not optimistic, so when the price breaks down, everyone must be careful not to be liquidated.

For those who have not yet boarded the train, I think when the price reaches the upper track of the four-hour Bollinger band, you can find an opportunity to chase more.

From the perspective of macd, the fast and slow lines are now forming a dead cross above the zero axis, but because there is a small rebound trend in the short term, you can now see that the red volume column is beginning to shrink.

Therefore, the fast and slow lines of the next four-hour macd have the opportunity to continue to form a golden cross above the zero axis, so friends who are more stable at the moment can continue to wait for the formation of a golden cross before continuing to chase more.
#BTC走势分析

5.18 Bitcoin rebound is blocked and enters the weekend market! Plan the opportunity to get on the train in advance!

Bitcoin was in a trend of rebounding yesterday. As shown in the figure, the price just stepped back to the previous low point, and there was a rebound trend. This wave of rebound is not as strong as the previous rise. The current price is just resisted not far ahead.

Entering the weekend market, generally speaking, the current price is just resisted at the resistance position in front, which should be difficult to break through, but once it breaks through, it is also a very critical position, so you should also consider catching up with the train, if you did not get on the train during the small correction yesterday.

Then look at the macd situation below. Now the macd fast and slow lines are above the zero axis and there is a trend of forming a dead cross. Once the dead cross trend is formed, the price will inevitably continue to give opportunities for corrections. In addition, entering the weekend market, this situation is still quite easy to occur.

According to this speculation, we can make the next plan to get on board, which is to wait for the four-hour MACD dead cross to form a golden cross again. It is best if the golden cross can continue to form above the zero axis. The area above the zero axis is the bullish area. Therefore, if the golden cross continues to form above the zero axis, the probability of continued rise will be higher.

#BTC走势分析

5.17 Bitcoin has a small correction after breaking through! Is it an opportunity to get on board?

After a wave of Bitcoin surge, the price had a small correction yesterday. The current price just stepped back to the key previous low point. As shown in the figure, it is a support and resistance exchange position. Now from the four-hour point of view, the price begins to pause at this position and closes with a small positive line, showing signs of rebound.

Then from the macd below, the fast and slow lines are now above the zero axis, with very obvious signs of turning around, and a trend of forming a dead cross is about to be formed. The green volume column is also a sign of shrinking volume. So from the trend of macd, the current correction has just begun.

If the macd fast and slow lines now form a trend of dead cross, then there is a high probability that the price will continue to pull back, and it will fall below the current key support position and continue to go down. However, at that time, if the price does not pull back too deeply, it can be supported again and stabilized.

The MACD fast and slow lines were still above the zero axis at that time, and there was hope that a golden cross trend would form again, which would be the beginning of a real rebound. As long as the MACD fast and slow lines have not fallen below the zero axis, we can continue to wait for the opportunity to rebound again!

Of course, the current MACD fast and slow lines have not formed a dead cross trend. Now the price is still stepping back on the key point, and there is still a chance to rebound directly. There is no need to be sure that the price will continue to fall below the key support position. If you think in advance that the price will fall below, then the price will directly break through and rise, then we will miss the profit of this rise.

So the current situation is that the price can rebound directly and break through the previous high, then the rise will most likely start directly, and this time it is very likely to be a big surge trend!
#BTC走势分析

5.16 Bitcoin rises on news! Has the surge just started?

Last night, the US CPI data was suddenly released ahead of schedule, and Bitcoin directly started to surge. The current price has reached around 66,000, which is a surge!

Then my member community had ambushed this long order at the bottom as early as May 10th. Although the market also showed a surge trend afterwards, it soon returned to a volatile trend, which was very uncomfortable. So last night, when the price broke through the previous high, I also stopped the profit of this long order in advance, and also took a profit of 3,000 points!

Now from the daily line, the price has directly reached the upper rail position of the Bollinger band, and the MACD fast and slow lines below have now started an upward trend and are about to cross the zero axis. If the fast and slow lines can directly cross the zero axis, then the upward trend will be more certain to start.

Then from the four-hour point of view, the price has far exceeded the upper rail position of the Bollinger band. In yesterday's rising market, the price directly broke through the high point in front, and now it is almost at the next high point.

From the macd, yesterday's fast and slow lines formed a golden cross above the zero axis. In the past few days, I have often reminded everyone to pay attention to this signal in my articles. I don't know if you have paid attention to this opportunity to get on the train!

After the four-hour macd fast and slow lines form a golden cross, there is actually still an opportunity to get on the train. In the current market, there may be a callback opportunity today, and the four-hour macd fast and slow lines are now far above the zero axis.

If the price is callback, then the macd fast and slow lines will give the opportunity to turn downward. If it is still above the zero axis and gives another golden cross opportunity, then this is a very rare opportunity to get on the train. After all, this round of trend is likely to be the starting signal!

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5.15 Has the hoarding trend quietly begun? Are the big players slowly accumulating funds?

Yesterday's article showed you that big players, whales, were buying Bitcoin and Ethereum, and today there is also such news.

The same is to transfer coins from the exchange to the wallet. Now it seems that they are hoarding coins. I believe that they are able to become big players with better vision than ordinary people. If the current operation of whales is very obvious, the market is about to surge!

Then we continue to return to the current market of Bitcoin. The current price of Bitcoin is around 62,000. Yesterday, the price showed a significant correction trend. From the four-hour point of view, as shown in the figure, the price directly fell through the middle track of the Bollinger band. Now there is a big positive line that has returned to the middle track again, but the closing line is not very strong, and there is still a little upper shadow line.

Then the MACD fast and slow lines below are still above the zero axis. Yesterday's decline did not cause the fast and slow lines to pull back below the zero axis, which means that the bullish trend still exists. Then if the price can continue to rebound slightly today and run above the middle track of the four-hour Bollinger band, then the MACD fast and slow lines will have the opportunity to form a golden cross trend, and the golden cross trend formed above the zero axis, then the bullish trend will be more certain!

Then let's take a look at the daily situation of Bitcoin. You can see that yesterday's price closed below the middle track of the Bollinger band. This is a bad signal. The current price is running below the middle track of the daily Bollinger band, so in fact, the shorts still have a slight advantage at the daily level.

Then the trend I just mentioned in the four hours actually requires the price to continue to rise today and remain above the key position before a bullish trend will appear, so I clearly remind everyone to pay attention to this situation and don't get excited and enter the operation!
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5.14 Bitcoin has a start signal? A real whale has appeared?

Yesterday afternoon, Bitcoin suddenly rose and directly reached above 63,000. In the short term, it was a very strong rise, but now the rise has stopped and even pulled back. As shown in the figure, the price is now blocked at the previous high point.

From the four-hour level, yesterday's price directly broke through the middle track of the Bollinger Band and just reached the upper track of the Bollinger Band. From the macd below, we can see that a golden cross trend had been formed yesterday. Now the fast and slow lines have come above the zero axis, but the current green long volume column is beginning to shrink.

Then I now think that the price is in a small correction stage, and the target point of the correction is likely to be the middle track of the four-hour Bollinger Band. If the price pulls back to the middle track and continues to rebound, there is a high probability that there will be a breakthrough trend to break through the current upper resistance, and then there is a high probability that the upward trend will start.

If the middle track of the four-hour Bollinger Band cannot support and falls through during the correction, then there is a high probability that the price will fall to the previous low point. Then I think there is a high probability that the price will show a shock box trend, as shown in the figure. After the oscillating trend is over, let's see which direction the price will break through. Now I think the probability of continuing to break upward is very high. ​

Then let's look at two pieces of news. It is observed that whales are currently buying a large amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I just showed you yesterday's news that there were whales selling Ethereum, but the number is very small compared to today's. ​

You can compare the number of sales in yesterday's news and the number of purchases in today's news. It is obvious that the purchase is more than ten times the sale. It can be seen that the current big whales still believe that the bull market is still there. Now is the time to wash the next round of surges. The whales are also slowly absorbing funds!

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5.13 Dangerous? Whales start selling Ethereum? Bitcoin's key trend affects the situation!

Bitcoin did not fluctuate much during the weekend, as usual, but the overall trend was still a fluctuating upward trend. As shown in the figure, the upward fluctuation will form an upward channel. We know that the upward channel is a bearish trend of the bear flag trend, so now the price is blocked at the top of this oscillating upward channel and falls back to the bottom of the channel. It is very likely to fall through this upward channel.

Once it falls through this upward channel, it will generally fall directly to an equidistant level. According to my deduction, once this oscillating upward channel falls through, the price may come to about 58000. Everyone must pay attention to this!

If today is Monday, a new week, I also observed some different news!

I saw that whales have secretly deposited Ethereum into exchanges in the past two days. As early as half a month ago, there were a lot of news saying that many whales were buying Ethereum. Our familiar brother Sun Yuchen also bought a lot of Ethereum spot.

But we know that the situation of Ethereum in the past half month is not very good. There was a rebound at first, which was very good, but it failed to get out of its own independent market and started to fall. The overall trend is not very good. Now it has fallen to the previous low again!

So now there are whales who can't help it and want to start selling. This may not be the final market, but it may also trigger an avalanche effect. It would not fall so fast. If whales start selling to cash out, no one dares to hold on. It is not impossible to eventually lead to a black swan event, because the market is originally composed of retail investors and whale institutions!

Then continue to look back at the situation of Bitcoin. Now at the four-hour level, the price is blocked at the middle track of the Bollinger Band. If the price does not fall below this trend line today, then the price has the opportunity to break through the middle track of the four-hour Bollinger Band, and then there is a chance to come to the upper track of the Bollinger Band!

Now the macd fast and slow lines below are in a golden cross trend. If the price can continue to rise, the fast and slow lines can continue to break through the zero axis, then the upward trend will be determined at the four-hour level!So I think the market can stabilize now, and it will be an advantage for bulls for the time being!

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