Bitcoin continued to fall yesterday at 4 a.m. as the Mentougou crisis and the U.S. stock market adjusted its sentiment at night, and dropped directly to around 58,000 in one go. However, it immediately recovered above the 60,000 mark and has now returned to around 61,000.
At the weekly level, if it recovers above 63,000 this week, then the weekly level will have completed the pin-spike behavior this week, which means that around 58,000 is the support position under the strong market consensus, so that the market at least has expectations in mind.
At the 4-hour level, it is currently in the oversold rebound stage. It will take continued judgment to determine the support at the 4-hour level. It is estimated that there will be continued adjustments or repeated fluctuations.
Overall, the market is still in a downward trend and there has been no major change for the time being. The daily ma120 trend fell below last week, and the weekly ma20 has also temporarily fallen below since this morning's close. However, the daily line has become oversold again. The last time was in August 2023 when it was between 28,000 and 29,000.
From the perspective of important events this week, there are two key data: one is the PCE index at 8:30 p.m. on June 28 (basically equivalent to CPI), and the other is the consumer confidence index at 10 p.m. on the same day. These two data may have a further impact on expectations of a rate cut.
In this round of market decline, on the surface, the altcoins have fallen badly, but in fact it may be a valuation regression of a single currency. As we all know, among all exchanges, the tokens listed on Bian are often valued higher by the market, and in the current period of insufficient liquidity, valuation regression is more likely to occur.
Therefore, what the market shows is that the overall market value of copycats has not fallen much, but the decline of individual coins has been very large. The core reason is that there are too many copycats and the overall valuation of copycats is high (mainly because the new coins of large exchanges occupy a larger market value).
Therefore, for the current altcoin market, it is best to hold currencies with less potential selling pressure within one year or with a high circulating market value.
There are still opportunities in the new round of copycat market, but there will be major changes compared with the previous round, and it will be more difficult to select stocks, which will test how each of us chooses.
Therefore, the idea is that for the copycat market, keep some bullets and wait until the possible right opportunity comes before investing in it. In other words, continue to invest in the promising leading stocks on the left side, and some emerging stocks will be invested again when the right opportunity comes.
The leading position is configured on the left side for certainty, and a part is left on the right side to follow the market funds, also for certainty.
Summary: The market has upward cycles and downward cycles, there will be sharp rises and plummets, but the crypto market is still full of optimism for the new cycle. For some targets that have been missed in the past, and those that have not been held enough in the past, the prices in the near future and in the next 1-2 months will still be a period of great opportunity.
You should have seen yesterday's news that Mentougou will start compensation in July. Before the compensation is completed, the probability of BTC going up unilaterally is not high. You can't just rush in to take over when there is selling pressure.
Regarding the compensation of Mentougou, everyone can pay more attention to self-media. When there are many reports of forced wealth accumulation, the incident of Mentougou will probably be over, and there will probably be no more attention in the future.
From the K-line of BTC, the falling position corresponding to the top rectangle has already fallen in place. Several price positions worth paying attention to recently are 6w (Fibonacci support position, mainly focusing on the daily closing price), 5.77w-200-day line, and finally the previous low of 5.65w-if it falls below this point, it will definitely be a very ugly trend from the perspective of technical analysis.
At least from the perspective of time, I don’t think the correction is over. The best case scenario is a volatile correction after mid-to-late April. The worst case scenario is that there will be another big spike. After several rounds of bottom testing, we can determine where the real bottom is. Keep an eye on several sentiment indicators!
Is the Mentougou compensation a bad thing or a good thing?
740,000 BTC were stolen, but now only 140,000 BTC can be compensated, and each user can only get about 19% of the compensation. Many investors currently predict that this will bring price pressure, especially for BCH.
Because BTC has "debt acceptance", similar to FTX's packaged sale of debts, it can sell assets that cannot be accepted at a discounted price in advance. In simple terms, some people felt that Mentougou's compensation time was too long, so when they learned that they could get 100 BTC, they were willing to sell the debt for 90 BTC or a lower price to get "compensation" in advance (not real Mentougou compensation).
Therefore, in fact, a lot of BTC is already in the hands of institutions, but the exact number is impossible to verify.
The letter said that compensation will be made gradually. Although we don’t know how long this period will be, it should not be too short. Therefore, even if all BTC are being sold, the daily selling pressure will not be very large. If it is divided into ten days, then it will be around 14,000 BTC per day, which is not an exaggeration.
Of course, the current sentiment and liquidity are indeed worse, but the focus still needs to be on the subsequent macroeconomic situation. Friday's PCE, next Friday's non-farm payrolls, and mid-month CPI will all affect sentiment and on-site funds. If these data are better than expected, then Mentougou's impact on the market will be reduced to a minimum. If these data are not good, then Mentougou's impact will inevitably be magnified.
But no matter what, judging from the actual data, Mentougou's direct impact on the market is very limited.
Create a high-quality circle
Bitcoin continued to fall yesterday at 4 a.m. as the Mentougou crisis and the U.S. stock market adjusted its sentiment at night, and dropped directly to around 58,000 in one go. However, it immediately recovered above the 60,000 mark and has now returned to around 61,000.
At the weekly level, if it recovers above 63,000 this week, then the weekly level will have completed the pin-spike behavior this week, which means that around 58,000 is the support position under the strong market consensus, so that the market at least has expectations in mind.
At the 4-hour level, it is currently in the oversold rebound stage. It will take continued judgment to determine the support at the 4-hour level. It is estimated that there will be continued adjustments or repeated fluctuations.
Overall, the market is still in a downward trend and there has been no major change for the time being. The daily ma120 trend fell below last week, and the weekly ma20 has also temporarily fallen below since this morning's close. However, the daily line has become oversold again. The last time was in August 2023 when it was between 28,000 and 29,000.
From the perspective of important events this week, there are two key data: one is the PCE index at 8:30 p.m. on June 28 (basically equivalent to CPI), and the other is the consumer confidence index at 10 p.m. on the same day. These two data may have a further impact on expectations of a rate cut.
In this round of market decline, on the surface, the altcoins have fallen badly, but in fact it may be a valuation regression of a single currency. As we all know, among all exchanges, the tokens listed on Bian are often valued higher by the market, and in the current period of insufficient liquidity, valuation regression is more likely to occur.
Therefore, what the market shows is that the overall market value of copycats has not fallen much, but the decline of individual coins has been very large. The core reason is that there are too many copycats and the overall valuation of copycats is high (mainly because the new coins of large exchanges occupy a larger market value).
Therefore, for the current altcoin market, it is best to hold currencies with less potential selling pressure within one year or with a high circulating market value.
There are still opportunities in the new round of copycat market, but there will be major changes compared with the previous round, and it will be more difficult to select stocks, which will test how each of us chooses.
Therefore, the idea is that for the copycat market, keep some bullets and wait until the possible right opportunity comes before investing in it. In other words, continue to invest in the promising leading stocks on the left side, and some emerging stocks will be invested again when the right opportunity comes.
The leading position is configured on the left side for certainty, and a part is left on the right side to follow the market funds, also for certainty.
Summary: The market has upward cycles and downward cycles, there will be sharp rises and plummets, but the crypto market is still full of optimism for the new cycle. For some targets that have been missed in the past, and those that have not been held enough in the past, the prices in the near future and in the next 1-2 months will still be a period of great opportunity.
You should have seen yesterday's news that Mentougou will start compensation in July. Before the compensation is completed, the probability of BTC going up unilaterally is not high. You can't just rush in to take over when there is selling pressure.
Regarding the compensation of Mentougou, everyone can pay more attention to self-media. When there are many reports of forced wealth accumulation, the incident of Mentougou will probably be over, and there will probably be no more attention in the future.
From the K-line of BTC, the falling position corresponding to the top rectangle has already fallen in place. Several price positions worth paying attention to recently are 6w (Fibonacci support position, mainly focusing on the daily closing price), 5.77w-200-day line, and finally the previous low of 5.65w-if it falls below this point, it will definitely be a very ugly trend from the perspective of technical analysis.
At least from the perspective of time, I don’t think the correction is over. The best case scenario is a volatile correction after mid-to-late April. The worst case scenario is that there will be another big spike. After several rounds of bottom testing, we can determine where the real bottom is. Keep an eye on several sentiment indicators!
Is the Mentougou compensation a bad thing or a good thing?
740,000 BTC were stolen, but now only 140,000 BTC can be compensated, and each user can only get about 19% of the compensation. Many investors currently predict that this will bring price pressure, especially for BCH.
Because BTC has "debt acceptance", similar to FTX's packaged sale of debts, it can sell assets that cannot be accepted at a discounted price in advance. In simple terms, some people felt that Mentougou's compensation time was too long, so when they learned that they could get 100 BTC, they were willing to sell the debt for 90 BTC or a lower price to get "compensation" in advance (not real Mentougou compensation).
Therefore, in fact, a lot of BTC is already in the hands of institutions, but the exact number is impossible to verify.
The letter said that compensation will be made gradually. Although we don’t know how long this period will be, it should not be too short. Therefore, even if all BTC are being sold, the daily selling pressure will not be very large. If it is divided into ten days, then it will be around 14,000 BTC per day, which is not an exaggeration.
Of course, the current sentiment and liquidity are indeed worse, but the focus still needs to be on the subsequent macroeconomic situation. Friday's PCE, next Friday's non-farm payrolls, and mid-month CPI will all affect sentiment and on-site funds. If these data are better than expected, then Mentougou's impact on the market will be reduced to a minimum. If these data are not good, then Mentougou's impact will inevitably be magnified.
But no matter what, judging from the actual data, Mentougou's direct impact on the market is very limited.
