Last night, after being suppressed for a long time, the market saw a rebound with varying magnitudes. On the surface, this rebound was caused by the news that VanEck applied for Sol ETF. An article two days ago suggested that the market might rebound and then pull back. Of course, we hope that the rebound will be higher, so that after another pullback, the probability that the previous low is the bottom will be greater.
Looking at the net inflow of ETFs, although there has been an inflow in the past few days, the amount of inflow is very small. Simply put, it is a rebound with reduced volume.
In the short term, there is still a spot approval for ETH on July 2, and it is still expected to pass. If it is not passed next week, then passing in August is a foregone conclusion. As long as the Fed’s data tonight is not higher than expected, there should not be another big drop before July 2. It is predicted that it is an indicator of a volatile rise repair.
Keep a close eye on whether it can recover to around 63,000 this week. If it can, then we can basically judge that the bottom support of this round of adjustment is around 58,000, and no matter how it adjusts later, it will not fall below this price.
For altcoins, the bottom of this correction will most likely not fall below, and we are not pessimistic about the future market, but it will take some time. At this stage, it is okay to hold spot goods!
When will the market start? I personally think that the listing and trading of ETH ETF is a good opportunity. In fact, you can recall that before the Bitcoin ETF was passed and traded, the currency circle was actually sluggish for a while. In short, as long as you can endure the dark moments and not cut your losses, you will outperform half of the people. Those who don’t fight at high points and are willing to run away are the ones who make money.
PCE data released tonight:
The PCE price index will be released at 8:30 tonight, with an expected reading of 2.6%.
Below expectations is positive, above expectations is negative.
If we use past standards, there has never been a new bull market since the collapse of the last bull market, because Bitcoin and Ethereum have not yet both hit new historical highs (only Bitcoin has passed the previous historical peak).
In the past, the bull market usually came about half a year after the Bitcoin halving. If we look at it from the perspective of history, this round of bull market may not come until after October this year.
It is only June now, so there is no need to rush, let alone feel that this round is particularly difficult. This round is the same as in the past, and we must be patient before the bull market arrives.
If the Ethereum ETF is passed between July 2nd and July 5th, it will attract about 3 billion US dollars to enter the market. Before the good news is realized, it will have a positive effect and fluctuate upward. Once the good news is realized, the market will enter the stage of "buying expectations and selling facts", that is, "good news is realized". Even if the good news becomes a reality, the price may fall back because it has been fully reflected in the price before.
The overall bullish trend is strengthening, and the market is likely to strengthen in the short term. DO SSV ENS are all on the list. If there is a decent pullback, you can also deploy the Ethereum ecosystem for swing trading.
ENS is a distributed, open and scalable naming system based on Ethereum, which is very popular in Europe and the United States. ENS is planning a Layer 2 network, which may push its price to a higher level.
Where will the second market exploration be?
Although the U.S. government transferred 3,940 Bitcoins (worth $240 million) to Coinbase after obtaining liquidation approval, Bitcoin will continue to hold the $60,000 support level for the following two reasons:
German government slows down BTC sell-off
According to data, German government-related wallets have transferred Bitcoin to exchanges in multiple transactions in recent days, including:
On June 19, multiple asset transfers began, with a total of 1,110 bitcoins being transferred to the exchange;
On June 25, the wallet transferred 200 bitcoins to Kraken and Coinbase exchanges, totaling 400 bitcoins.
On June 26, the wallet transferred 125 bitcoins to Kraken and Bitstamp exchanges, totaling 250 bitcoins.
As the amount of Bitcoin transferred by the German government to exchanges decreases day by day, it may indicate that the large-scale sell-off plan is coming to an end.
Bitcoin spot ETF ends 7-day streak of net outflows
On the other hand, according to data, after the Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net outflow for seven consecutive days from June 13 to June 24, it finally showed a net inflow on the 25th and 26th. The end of the seven consecutive days of net outflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF is a sign of the stabilization of the Bitcoin price.
The negative event of Mt. Got’s announcement that it will repay customers’ bitcoins in July will trigger less selling pressure on bitcoins than expected.
Since nearly 75% of creditors choose Early Payout (subject to a 10% reduction in value), there will only be about 95,000 bitcoins available for early payment of compensation (the remaining BTC will take longer to pay):
Of these, approximately 20,000 tokens belong to the claims fund, 10,000 tokens belong to Bitcoinica BK, and approximately 65,000 tokens are owed to individual creditors, who are expected to hold on to their Bitcoins longer than the market expects:
1. Creditors are mainly long-term Bitcoin holders. They are early adopters with keen technical acumen.
2. Individual creditors have rejected attractive offers from claims funds over the years, suggesting they would rather get their Bitcoin back than compensation denominated in U.S. dollars.
3. The capital gains tax impact of the sale will be large. With the increase in prices, even if only 15% of the physical claims are recovered, the claim holders have gained 140 times the value (in USD) on the Bitcoin they recovered since the bankruptcy.
Last night, after being suppressed for a long time, the market saw a rebound with varying magnitudes. On the surface, this rebound was caused by the news that VanEck applied for Sol ETF. An article two days ago suggested that the market might rebound and then pull back. Of course, we hope that the rebound will be higher, so that after another pullback, the probability that the previous low is the bottom will be greater.
Looking at the net inflow of ETFs, although there has been an inflow in the past few days, the amount of inflow is very small. Simply put, it is a rebound with reduced volume.
In the short term, there is still a spot approval for ETH on July 2, and it is still expected to pass. If it is not passed next week, then passing in August is a foregone conclusion. As long as the Fed’s data tonight is not higher than expected, there should not be another big drop before July 2. It is predicted that it is an indicator of a volatile rise repair.
Keep a close eye on whether it can recover to around 63,000 this week. If it can, then we can basically judge that the bottom support of this round of adjustment is around 58,000, and no matter how it adjusts later, it will not fall below this price.
For altcoins, the bottom of this correction will most likely not fall below, and we are not pessimistic about the future market, but it will take some time. At this stage, it is okay to hold spot goods!
When will the market start? I personally think that the listing and trading of ETH ETF is a good opportunity. In fact, you can recall that before the Bitcoin ETF was passed and traded, the currency circle was actually sluggish for a while. In short, as long as you can endure the dark moments and not cut your losses, you will outperform half of the people. Those who don’t fight at high points and are willing to run away are the ones who make money.
PCE data released tonight:
The PCE price index will be released at 8:30 tonight, with an expected reading of 2.6%.
Below expectations is positive, above expectations is negative.
If we use past standards, there has never been a new bull market since the collapse of the last bull market, because Bitcoin and Ethereum have not yet both hit new historical highs (only Bitcoin has passed the previous historical peak).
In the past, the bull market usually came about half a year after the Bitcoin halving. If we look at it from the perspective of history, this round of bull market may not come until after October this year.
It is only June now, so there is no need to rush, let alone feel that this round is particularly difficult. This round is the same as in the past, and we must be patient before the bull market arrives.
If the Ethereum ETF is passed between July 2nd and July 5th, it will attract about 3 billion US dollars to enter the market. Before the good news is realized, it will have a positive effect and fluctuate upward. Once the good news is realized, the market will enter the stage of "buying expectations and selling facts", that is, "good news is realized". Even if the good news becomes a reality, the price may fall back because it has been fully reflected in the price before.
The overall bullish trend is strengthening, and the market is likely to strengthen in the short term. DO SSV ENS are all on the list. If there is a decent pullback, you can also deploy the Ethereum ecosystem for swing trading.
ENS is a distributed, open and scalable naming system based on Ethereum, which is very popular in Europe and the United States. ENS is planning a Layer 2 network, which may push its price to a higher level.
Where will the second market exploration be?
Although the U.S. government transferred 3,940 Bitcoins (worth $240 million) to Coinbase after obtaining liquidation approval, Bitcoin will continue to hold the $60,000 support level for the following two reasons:
German government slows down BTC sell-off
According to data, German government-related wallets have transferred Bitcoin to exchanges in multiple transactions in recent days, including:
On June 19, multiple asset transfers began, with a total of 1,110 bitcoins being transferred to the exchange;
On June 25, the wallet transferred 200 bitcoins to Kraken and Coinbase exchanges, totaling 400 bitcoins.
On June 26, the wallet transferred 125 bitcoins to Kraken and Bitstamp exchanges, totaling 250 bitcoins.
As the amount of Bitcoin transferred by the German government to exchanges decreases day by day, it may indicate that the large-scale sell-off plan is coming to an end.
Bitcoin spot ETF ends 7-day streak of net outflows
On the other hand, according to data, after the Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net outflow for seven consecutive days from June 13 to June 24, it finally showed a net inflow on the 25th and 26th. The end of the seven consecutive days of net outflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF is a sign of the stabilization of the Bitcoin price.
The negative event of Mt. Got’s announcement that it will repay customers’ bitcoins in July will trigger less selling pressure on bitcoins than expected.
Since nearly 75% of creditors choose Early Payout (subject to a 10% reduction in value), only about 95,000 bitcoins will be used to pay compensation early (the remaining BTC will take longer to pay):
Of these, approximately 20,000 tokens belong to the claims fund, 10,000 tokens belong to Bitcoinica BK, and approximately 65,000 tokens are owed to individual creditors, who are expected to hold on to their Bitcoins longer than the market expects:
1. Creditors are mainly long-term Bitcoin holders. They are early adopters with keen technical acumen.
2. Individual creditors have rejected attractive offers from claims funds over the years, suggesting they would rather get their Bitcoin back than compensation denominated in U.S. dollars.
3. The capital gains tax impact of the sale will be large. With the increase in prices, even if only 15% of the physical claims are recovered, the claim holders have gained 140 times the value (in USD) on the Bitcoin they recovered since the bankruptcy.
