Bitcoin failed to stand above 63,800 in the short term yesterday, and then there was a second pullback to verify the bottom support. It will now test the support level of 60,000 again.
At the 2-hour level, if the bottom near 60,000 is supported by large volume, the market will once again strengthen its confidence. If it is not accompanied by large volume, it will continue to test the strong support position near 58,000.
What other selling pressures does the market need to face at present?
The recent selling of Bitcoin and Ethereum by the US and German governments has put pressure on the market. At the same time, Mt.Gox will start paying out in July 2024, and the Bitcoin market is expected to be under huge selling pressure in early July.
In addition to the continued selling by the US and German governments, the main selling pressure still comes from Mt.Gox. According to the official website information, the latest repayment plan provided by Mt.Gox to creditors includes basic repayment and proportional repayment.
The basic repayment portion allows the first 200,000 yen claimed by each creditor to be paid in yen, while the proportional repayment provides creditors with two flexible options, namely "early lump-sum repayment" or "interim repayment and final repayment."
Among them, the one-time repayment method can only allow creditors to obtain partial compensation (about 21% of the funds they locked on the platform at the time of the hacker attack). For the part exceeding 200,000 yen, creditors can choose a mixture of BTC, BCH and yen or pay the full amount in legal currency.
According to the latest news, Mt.Gox will start paying compensation in July 2024.
This week, there are many important events in the macro market. From the current market analysis, it is expected to have a positive impact on the crypto ecosystem.
On July 3, the United States announced the ADP employment data for June and the number of initial jobless claims for the same week;
On July 4, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, the UK held a general election, and the European Central Bank released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting;
On July 5, the United States released the unemployment rate and non-farm employment in June.
The most important thing is the unemployment rate and non-farm data of the United States on Friday. The macro market, which has been silent for many days, has made a comeback. In terms of encryption, the market expects that the SEC may respond to the ETH ETF in the week of July 8, which is likely to be good news. The quarterly delivery has just ended, and the IV of each major term is very low, which is a good opportunity to build a position.
According to current news, the Ethereum ETF may be launched as early as early July, which will inject new funds into the crypto market. Unlike the lack of ecology on the Bitcoin chain, the influx of new funds into Ethereum is expected to further promote the development of the Ethereum ecosystem.
Trump will speak at the Bitcoin Conference on July 25!
In addition to macro data, Trump may lead a group of retail funds to flow in in late July. Trump is discussing giving a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville at the end of July. The Bitcoin 2024 conference will be hosted by Bitcoin Magazine and is scheduled to be held from July 25 to 27.
Overall, Bitcoin is expected to perform weakly in early July, mainly because the US and German governments and the Mt.Gox compensation will create selling pressure on Bitcoin. At the same time, the first week of July will inject some macro-optimism into Bitcoin from a macro perspective; as the Mt.Gox compensation is digested by the market, Bitcoin is expected to gradually strengthen; in late July, Trump will most likely inject a shot in the arm for Bitcoin.
Why do altcoins only explode in the middle and late stages of a bull market?
1. The project owners of altcoins don’t have much money. From the entire bear market to the early bull market, they have to pay salaries and expenses every month, so they can only sell coins every month;
2. In the middle and late stages of the bull market, when the big whales have made enough money on BTC, some hot money will come to fight for altcoins, creating a bubble altcoin season, which is both a carnival and a wave of harvest.
Many people say that there is no copycat season, but in fact, they disagree. Very few products can be sold by dumping the market. Only crazy price increase during the copycat season is the best way for each project to sell products.
In the last bear market, there was also an obvious signal, which was the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike.
I have repeatedly emphasized that if the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate hike, do not hesitate, just sell it, regardless of whether you make a loss or a profit.
As a result, when the interest rate hike came, the market did not react much, and sometimes even rebounded. So is the current market a bull or a bear? Is it the bottom or the mountainside? This is the answer that everyone wants to know.
Things in the future will all be extremely risky in the cryptocurrency world. Risk means gain, and it depends on how you balance it. Now is a bull market, and the reasons for this judgment have been told to you countless times in the article, so I won’t repeat them here.
As for whether it is the bottom? Here is an obvious signal for you to refer to. This signal is the computing power of Bitcoin. The current computing power of Bitcoin has dropped to the lowest level since December 2022, that is, the lowest level since the collapse of FTX. Where is the turning point of the lowest point of the last bear market?
The FTX crash was the bottom of the bear market, and the current hashrate is comparable to that time. What does this mean? Is it a signal that the market has bottomed out? You can decide for yourself.
