Is the lack of new stories the fundamental reason why copycat websites cannot be launched?
Lack of new stories:
1. Being so bored that they create memes to vent their emotions.
2. Defi valuation returns to traditional commercial valuation. The leading Defi of Strk/Sui (with 100-200 million USD TVL) has a project FDV/market value of 10 million USD.
3.ETHgas dropped below 2 gwei, no fun.
4. Everyone goes to BTC, this ecological desert (which has been deserted for more than 10 years), to find new stories
5. ETHlayer2-type stories are highly homogenized, either Oprollup or zkrollup, with a valuation of $3 billion.
6. High-performance public chains such as SUI, only price can drive the community, technology is not good, Solana is one of them.
Only new stories can support a complete copycat bull market, so the new story concepts that have only appeared in the past six months are likely to become the outbreak point of the copycat bull market.
Possible new stories:
1. BTClayer2 and ETHlayer2 have been in a state of disarray, but BTClayer2 has only been registered for one year, so it is new enough. ETHlayer2 already has 10% of Layer2. The#BTCon BTClayer2 is far less than 1%, so there is enough room for growth.
2. Computing power RWA, the computing power time is long/RWA time is also long, but computing power RWA is a new concept, computing power is a positive cycle business model (there are 20 billion US dollars in computing power market transactions every year), RWA is also a positive cycle business model (USDC/USDT is the US dollar RWA business logic), computing power + RWA is a new concept, a positive cycle business model.
3. Telegram’s new public chain Ton, a model combining social and public chains, is a new story at the moment.
There may be many new stories. I think there is a Shanzhai bull, but the bull has not come yet. If there is no Shanzhai bull, then the currency circle is going downhill. But obviously BTC is still far from the US dollar market value, and it is still on the uphill road. On the uphill road, there will be no Shanzhai bull. The overflow of a little money from the BTC bull is a flood for Shanzhai.
Several key points of observation that may bring volatility to the market this week are:
1. US May core personal consumption expenditures PCE report
The U.S. Department of Commerce will release the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday (28th), which is one of the important indicators used by the Federal Reserve to measure inflation changes. Analysts estimate that the annual growth rate of the U.S. core PCE in May is expected to slow to 2.6%.
Most economists expect U.S. inflation to have turned a corner after rising in the first quarter, as both consumer and producer price indexes slowed in May, driven by lower gasoline and other commodity prices that partly offset rising home rental costs.
2. Fed officials talk
Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, including two Fed chairmen, Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman, as well as San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who has a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year.
3. The first debate of the US presidential election
In addition, the first debate of the 2024 US presidential election will be held at 9 am on the 28th. It will be a battle between the current President Biden and the former President Trump. If the two discuss the issue of cryptocurrency on stage, it may bring potential fluctuations to the market.
This week, 7 projects will unlock a large amount of tokens at one time, including:
alt will unlock 105 million ALT at 18:00 on June 25
YGG will unlock 16.69 million YGG at 22:00 on June 27
agix will unlock 8.57 million AGIX at 8:00 on June 28
Prime will unlock 750,000 PRIME at 8:00 on June 30
OP will unlock 31.34 million OP at 8:00 on June 30
ena will unlock 14.89 million ENA at 15:00 on June 30
sui will unlock 64.19 million SUI at 8:00 on June 31
The total unlocked tokens are worth 188 million US dollars, which means that if the market trading volume cannot absorb these 188 million, the market will once again face a short-term adjustment. In the last bull market, we did not seem to pay special attention to the selling pressure of unlocked tokens, but now we have to pay attention to it. The market is so sluggish, and so many tokens are still being unlocked. What is the purpose of the copycat to pull up the market?
Since falling below 66,000, Bitcoin has been adjusting downward to find a support position. No such support level has been seen so far. This morning, it fell below 63,000 again. Currently, there is no support signal from any angle. Unless there is a spike phenomenon, the market will keep testing and searching, so we need to be more patient.
From a cyclical perspective, after June, there will be a high probability that the decline will stop starting in July, and then the market will gradually stabilize. Starting from the third quarter, there will be improvement, but it will take until the fourth quarter for the market to really take off.
The market has given us a lot of time at present. We can use this time to learn more knowledge, and then study and think more about how the market will develop in the future and which tracks will be the code to wealth in the future, etc. When the overall market is not good, it is a waste of time to watch more markets and it is meaningless!
