BTC is struggling to reach the bull-bear dividing line MA120. What will happen in the future?
MA120, namely the 120-day moving average, is a long-term moving average indicator in technical analysis. When the price crosses above or below MA120, it often indicates a change in the overall market trend.
Data shows that the current MA120 price of BTC is about US$65,910, and it has closed below MA120 for five consecutive days.
It is generally believed that the lowest starting point of this bull market is US$15,476. What will be the interaction between BTC price and MA120 afterwards?
In January 2023, BTC price broke through MA120 for the first time. In March 2023, BTC fell and touched MA120, and immediately rebounded. In June 2023, BTC fell below MA120, and crossed MA120 again 15 days later. In August 2023, BTC fell below MA120 again, and crossed it again 60 days later, and continued to rise.
At this time, BTC was $28,600, and then it continued to rise for 6 months. The bull market was established, and BTC reached a high of $73,777. In May 24, BTC fell and pulled back, touching MA120 and then rose again. In June 24, BTC fell below MA120.
If the confirmation point of this bull market is in August 2023, and the starting point of the unilateral rise is here, then it means that the BTC price has never fallen below the daily MA120.
In fact, in any cycle of BTC history, the daily MA120 is a very important bull-bear line.
In the unilateral rise of each bull market, the situation of falling below this bull-bear line has only occurred twice, once in 2021, on May 19. The other time is now.
Here comes the problem
If BTC is still in a unilateral bull market, MA120 should be unbreakable. If we break below it, it is no longer a unilateral bull market at this moment, and there may even be a big correction.
At present, only Ethereum performs well, and the daily MA120 moving average is a good bottom signal, which may be related to the approval of the ETF by the US SEC on July 2. However, Bitcoin lost the daily MA60 and MA120 moving averages.
When will the volatile market end?
Be patient, it has risen 3 times since September 2023, and needs to pull back to accumulate momentum. Similar to the post-doubling cycle low in the first quarter of 2023, a broad base formation preceded the rise in the fourth quarter, and the shock may continue until July or August to complete the bottoming.
The cryptocurrency world is now like a casino, contracts and scams will never end!
At this stage, there are too many projects and not enough leeks. The leeks have just been cut and there is no liquidity, so we have to wait for a few months to let the old leeks save some money by delivering takeout before entering the market. The big bulls have to wait for the United States to cut interest rates and release liquidity before there may be a crazy bull market. By then, there will be copycat market and general rising market!
But most of the coins will not have a big increase, because there are too many coins, so numerous that attention is seriously distracted and it is impossible to form a combined force!
There will be individual sectors that see sharp increases, and these sectors are the ones that need to be ambushed, and are the key to success or failure!
These opportunity sectors should have the following characteristics:
1. Like the inscription wave, it is an innovation. In fact, the inscription wave is essentially the same as the defi summer in 2020.
2. Pay attention to new things, they are the future and the main force of leeks.
3. Memes cannot be ignored.
4. Contracts and local dogs are gambling and will never fade away. These two sectors are the exception because they both lose money.
In the middle and late stages of the last bull market, BTC could not outperform the copycats, which were thousands of times larger. One reason was that the market value of the copycats was small in the early stages, and grew step by step from tens of millions to hundreds of millions. Another reason might be the so-called SBF crashing BTC and pulling in some copycats.
The high FDV and low circulation copycats basically started from SBF. But until now, why are many coins worth billions right away? There is no longer the previous environment.
Why are there no copycat bulls? On the one hand, most projects were financed in the middle and late stages of the last bull market, and were valued at the peak of the bull market, with an estimated market value of tens of billions or hundreds of billions. Now when they start to realize their value, no one is willing to take over the market. Some people also say that the project owners or VCs are too confident about the coming of the next bull market, and their expectations are too high.
In short, various reasons have led to the current situation where Bitcoin is fluctuating at a high level, while the altcoins are falling continuously. As soon as a new coin is launched, the old projects are sucked dry.
For this phenomenon to change, I think there must either be another wave of decline, forcing the copycats to completely give up their fantasies, squeeze out the bubbles, and drop out of cost-effectiveness, or there must be sufficient liquidity coming in, so that the copycats can stand up!
Once Bitcoin is pulled up, it will be smashed down. Currently, it may be some miners dumping the market because it is difficult for some small miners to survive at the current price. In fact, according to common sense, the time should not be delayed until now, and some unqualified miners or miners with outdated equipment should have been cleared out long ago. However, due to the brc20 and runes protocols, the on-chain transaction fees were relatively optimistic some time ago, so the cycle was inadvertently extended.
Once the miners are liquidated and new hash power starts to grow, the market will rise again and sprint towards $100,000. I estimate that the adjustment of Bitcoin will end around July, and then it will gradually start to rise.
At the current stage, Bitcoin is adjusting, so we must keep a close eye on the daily level. Only when the daily level stabilizes, will the market really explode.
