In fact, Europe and Canada dare to cut interest rates first, based on the expectation that the Fed will not last long.

But in general, unless the world financial crisis breaks out, even if the Fed cuts interest rates, it will cut interest rates slightly first, and will not cut to a low interest rate level of about 2% at one go.

I have analyzed it before, and if the financial crisis does not break out, then the Fed will at most cut interest rates slightly three times in the next year, reducing interest rates to about 4.5%.

But if the US financial crisis breaks out in the next year, the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates significantly, or even to 0 interest rates at one go.

The Fed is likely to cut interest rates slightly 1-2 times in the second half of this year, which cannot be regarded as a crisis signal.

But if the Fed suddenly expands its balance sheet or cuts interest rates significantly, it can be regarded as a signal of the outbreak of a financial crisis.

It is not the sharp interest rate cut that causes the outbreak of the financial crisis, but the outbreak of the financial crisis that forces the Fed to cut interest rates significantly#非农就业人数高于预期