Let's take a look at the situation of the international financial market that has temporarily lost the US stock market:
Focus 1, Europe, the European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates next month, but the policy remains tight. With rising wages, Europe's inflation has a rebound trend, and with the interest rate difference after the interest rate cut, Europe must be cautious. Of course, in theory they don't want to cut interest rates, but without the strength of the United States, they can't withstand the pressure of high interest rates. However, after Europe cuts interest rates, it will further consolidate the strength of the US index through a basket of currencies.
Today, European stocks performed mediocrely. After all, it is normal to be in a bad state when the leader is resting.
Focus 2, the US dollar index rebounded after a slight decline at the opening today, and currently remains around 104.6. At this time, the 10-year period fluctuated slightly during the day, rising after the opening and then fluctuating and falling, and is currently rebounding again.
The exchange rate of the US dollar to the Japanese yen showed a fluctuating downward trend during the day. Here I want to say that many people said that Japan was going to collapse. In fact, don't forget that Japan's current overseas assets are heavier than domestic assets, and the ratio is basically 1:1.2. Therefore, the low-price route of the Japanese yen does not necessarily mean that Japan will collapse in the short term. Of course, you can be pessimistic about Japan in the big cycle. (No reason needed)
The exchange rate of USD to RMB surged during the day and then fell back in shock. It is now rising again, but the offshore exchange rate has basically remained stable with the regulatory policy. I heard from some news that a lot of foreign capital is currently buying up domestic 10-year government bonds. Hong Kong has been a bit popular recently.
Focus three, Asian stock markets, A shares, Hang Seng, and Nikkei indexes have all closed higher, and the gains of the three major stock markets have all exceeded the closing price last Friday.
Focus four, international gold/crude oil, gold once surged to a record high last Monday and then fell rapidly, but stabilized around 2,300 last week and started a new round of rebound this week. As for the rise in gold prices, we can actually find that geopolitical factors have little impact on the price trend of gold as long as they do not involve the possibility of S3. In fact, the biggest factor affecting the price of gold at present comes from the US dollar, which is the decline of the US dollar's credit system in the world as I said before, resulting in a large amount of US dollar capital outflow, or direct purchase of gold, of course, including purchases by central banks of various countries.The decline of gold is also full of games. JPMorgan Chase has been shorting gold above 2000. I believe that JPMorgan Chase also participated in the decline of this historical high.
Suppressing the short-term rise in gold prices is actually a defensive measure against the outflow of US dollar capital, but the current price of gold is obviously supported by someone around 2300, and the trend of gold will continue to strengthen in the future. At the same time, there is a possibility that the party that controls a large amount of gold resources in the future can redefine the new currency. Of course, this is a future concept and does not need to be true for the time being.
The price of crude oil is affected by many factors such as production and transportation. Although it has stabilized near 82 recently, it is still full of risk. We have said before that the International Monetary Fund once proposed a concept that for every $10 increase in crude oil prices, global economic growth will slow by 2%, which is already a very scary data.
In fact, it is not just gold, crude oil, and the prices of many bulk commodities have actually remained high recently. On the surface, it seems to have nothing to do with the crypto market, but this high-pressure state is a challenge to the economy and financial markets. You can say that it has no direct relationship with the crypto market, but indirectly, the crypto market as a risk market will eventually be deeply affected.
