June 7 U.S. macro data preview: U.S. May seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (10,000 people) Attention: ★★★★
The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in May (10,000 people) are provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This value can measure the situation of the U.S. job market and also reflect the situation of U.S. economic activities.
Data impact: ★★★★
Data credibility: ★★★★
Data: Previous value was 175,000, expected was 185,000, and the market expected the non-agricultural employment market population to increase in May.
Announcement time: 20:30
Influence:
1. The data was in line with expectations and higher than the previous value. Employment warmed up and economic activities increased, which was not conducive to inflation control and interest rate cut expectations, and was bearish for risk markets.
2. The data is higher than expected and much higher than the previous value. The job market is hot and economic activities are frequent, which is harmful to inflation control, unfavorable to expectations of interest rate cuts, and significantly bearish for risk markets.
3. The data is lower than expected, but higher than the previous value. The job market remains active but not hot. The data is lower than market expectations, which will lead to the market's expectation of a further slowdown in the job market and economic activity, which will help control inflation and increase the unemployment rate. The Fed's expectations and rate cuts will increase, which is slightly positive for risk markets.
4. The data was lower than expected and lower than the previous value. The job market slowed down and cooled down faster, and economic activities slowed down. This was not good for the economic trend, but was good for inflation control and for pushing forward the Fed's expectations of a rate cut as soon as possible, which was a big plus for the risk market.
Compared with the non-agricultural employment population, the equally important unemployment rate data tonight will bring different effects. According to the current situation, if the unemployment rate rises, it will be the most positive factor for the market, but the possibility of an increase in the unemployment rate is also the smallest. Because of the increase in the unemployment rate, we can get optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts, but for the US government, it will face more social pressure.
If the unemployment rate remains unchanged, the most likely area of concern will be non-agricultural employment. The current market expectation for non-agricultural employment in May is an increase of 185,000 jobs. Personally, I feel that the market is playing with expectation control again.
First, after the GDP revision in the first quarter, many reports said that the economic growth or rebound in the first quarter was normal. According to this idea, the economy slowed down in the second quarter. The economic activity after the slowdown, at least the job market, is not cooling down rapidly, but at least it is slowing down. The possibility of the employment population increasing again is relatively small. If the data is really in line with expectations, the job market will be active again, and the expectations of economic activities will increase, but the inflation problem will be put on the agenda again. Therefore, the best situation may be lower than expected (slowdown), higher than or equal to the previous value (no difference, no pressure on the unemployment rate)
PS：
As for the impact on the crypto market, if the unemployment rate remains unchanged tonight and the non-farm payrolls are lower than expected and higher than or equal to the previous value, although the single data is positive, it is not enough to support the expectation of the Federal Reserve's optimistic talk about rate cuts as a whole. The market may fall and correct after a small rise.
Waiting for the data to be released!
