With large-scale outflow of funds, the market may have a crash.
Judging from the quality of the rebound, Bitcoin's defense of $60,000 is not impregnable. The main reasons are as follows:
1. As the market continues to rebound, the USDT premium rate has dropped from 3.2% on April 18 to 1.4% on April 24. During this period, the average USDT lending rate on CEX dropped from 16% to 3.5%. It is particularly noteworthy that OKX, which previously had a USDT lending rate of more than 40% for a long time, now has a lending rate of 1%. These changes indicate that the inflow of OTC funds and the enthusiasm for using leverage in the market are declining significantly.
2. During the rebound, the funding rate of Bitcoin perpetual contracts has continued to decline and has now entered a negative state, which is the first time since October 2023. This also shows that the sentiment of futures traders is gradually becoming cautious.
3. Different from the previous market style led by AI and DePin, this round of rebound is mainly driven by MEME coins, especially the new MEME coins (PEPE, WIF, etc.), so the market's money-making effect is lackluster. This makes people suspect that the activity of MEME coins is likely a trick by the main force to maintain the heat of the market at a very small cost.
Based on the above three points, we can conclude that although the main force has a firm attitude to support the bottom, it has no intention to raise the price of the currency, and its operation is more of selling high and buying low within the range. When the rebound is difficult to form a joint force, the resistance of the bulls cannot escape the fate of exhaustion.
