May 23 is the final deadline for the “pioneer” application from VanEck for the spot Ethereum ETF. And then May 24th is the final deadline for the#ARKInvestapplication.
We wrote our last post on the topic of spot Ethereum ETFs on May 7th. It's time to update the picture.
Now there is nowhere to postpone the consideration of the application further. Now the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has only two options:
1. Refuse approval.
2. Approve.
There is, however, another scenario with bureaucratic delays. But this is essentially the same scenario on the way to approval. Just stretched out over time. What it might look like, Nate Gerasi, president of the investment advisory company ETF Store, wrote in X:
“…The SEC must approve both a 19b-4 (exchange rule changes) and an S-1 (registration statement) to launch the ETF.
It is technically possible that the SEC would approve 19b-4 and then S-1 slow play (especially given the reported lack of participation here).”
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202405/9afef15aaeb1eed37a4110e98939b2cb.png)
Small “explanatory team”:
- 19b-4s (Changes in Exchange Rules): This refers to the documentation that a national securities exchange, such as the NYSE or Nasdaq, files with the SEC when rules need to be changed or new products introduced. In the case of Ethereum ETFs, exchanges need SEC approval for these applications to list the ETF.
- S-1s (Registration Statement): This is the initial registration form required for new securities offered to market participants, which provides the SEC and potential investors with detailed information about a company's business operations, financial condition and management. For an ETF, this document will detail the fund's structure, its governance, and how it intends to replicate the performance of Ethereum.
The#ETHrate, even in pairs with USDT, even in pairs with BTC, does not look like before the collapse. This is, in the current situation, very interesting. Because the unresolved issue with the US SEC attack on #ETH,#Consensysand#MetaMaskcreates a well-founded expectation in the market that the ETF will not be approved. And#ETHmay generally be declared an unregistered security. As a result, according to bets on the Polymarket betting platform, the probability of acceptance of spot Ethereum ETFs before May 31 is estimated at only 10%.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202405/926593fc8a69f4934b4d0d80b430e609.png)
It is quite possible that the Dutch crypto trader Michael van de Poppe is right in his recent longread and the negativity regarding the DISAPPROVAL of spot Ethereum ETFs in May is already included in the price. Then, based on the fact of DISapproval, “losing the shackles,” the price will go up. Moreover, many players are already confident in another date - August 7, 2024. When is the deadline for the application of the investment giant #BlackRock. They have a success rate of 99.8% for successfully approved applications for ETFs. Growing up all summer in anticipation of this date is a completely logical scenario.
Technical picture of the asset.
The price of the asset paired with USDT is clamped in a wedge-shaped structure. This can no longer be called either a flag or a channel. The movements over the past week are changing structure.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202405/3cbcecdf23b8e4d81d0f39f3aab203ae.png)
And we still believe that this is the fourth corrective wave in growth since November 2022.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202405/271a61b397fc20a55c0589a6b31b6198.png)
To continue growth, you need to break through at least this pool of resistance in one local zone:
- EMA 50 day TF (currently $3,121, the price in recent days came to test the breakout again, unsuccessful so far),
- volume level $3,114,
- downward trend since March 12 (currently at $3,161).
It is quite possible that in order to break through these and subsequent resistances with at least a squeeze, the asset will go beyond the level on May 1 and at the same time test the EMA of the 200 day TF (currently $2,807).
Paired with BTC, the#ETHrate has reached global support - an upward trend since December 2019 (!). And we still believe that the price is completing the formation of wave C in the ABC structure of the correction from the high in December 2021. The price updated the cycle level last week and reached the level of April 2021. What is not a reason to start a reversal from support into new five waves of growth ?
And yes, according to this excitement, the altezon has not even begun yet, these were all small rebounds.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202405/32cad98fb45aff56767d827420746e16.png)