We haven’t looked at the BTC Price Volatility Index for a long time, but there were reasons for that. There was no need to write about an analysis tool that went into an anomaly and lost its forecast value for two whole months - from May 14 to July 11.
The most striking achievements of this tool in 2024:
- On February 7, we wrote that the price of#BTCis preparing a quick impulse. From this day on, the price increase over 8 days amounted to +23%.
- On February 26, we wrote again that the price of#BTCis preparing a quick impulse. From this day on, the price increase over 17 days amounted to +44%.
We analyze the Index through Thomas DeMark's candle counting technique. And for a long time, it clearly made it possible to predict reversals in volatility and, in particular, its spikes. But, we repeat, from May 14 to July 11 there was a period of anomalies on the chart and the predictability of the instrument dropped significantly. The long (since March) and exhausting range of BTC prices in a wide range explains the reason. Since June 10, after it became clear that the tool had temporarily lost its relevance, no analysis was carried out.
Now, since July 11, there is reason to talk about aligning the structure. From the reversal candle on July 20, volatility is still turning a corner. But if in the coming days volatility remains above 5.8, we expect volatility for#BTCto increase, plus or minus from current ones. And with goals above 10.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202407/9ef635211ca99f39800b19894c7a4a8b.png)