US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell makes a number of theses on US monetary policy. As part of the annual meeting of Foreign Bankers Amsterdam.
As warned in the daily calendar, the crypto market reacts with increased volatility.
Powell repeated some of the points from his last press conference on the day of the interest rate decision. He also commented on today’s negative data on manufacturing inflation, trying to soften them with his assessment. In general, the rhetoric is rather dovish.
Here's the key to what Powell said:
- We have made real progress in the fight against inflation.
- Inflation in the first quarter of 2024 was notable for the lack of further progress in reducing it.
- My confidence in a rapid decline in inflation is now lower than it was before.
- In the fight against inflation, you need to be patient and let the Fed's monetary policy do its job. We didn't expect a smooth road.
- If inflation continues to be stable, the Fed will have to stick to its restrictive monetary policy longer. Time will tell whether we restrict politics enough.
- The Fed is unlikely to cut or raise rates at its next meeting. It is more likely that we will leave the rate at the same level.
- Data on the producer price index turned out to be very ambiguous. I wouldn't call the PPI readings hot, but somewhat mixed.
- The US economy is doing very well.
- Consumer spending and business investment are at a high level.
- Our economy has a very strong labor market. It's about the same as before the pandemic. There are signs of him cooling. We expect the labor market to continue to rebalance but remain strong.
- There are still labor shortages in many industries, but overall it's a good picture when you look at the economic data for the US at the moment.
- US households are in positive financial condition.
- I expect GDP growth of 2% or more.