First of all, the market as a whole rebounded yesterday, but began to fall back in the evening. During the rebound, new coins and AI sectors rebounded well. According to the principle of speculating on new things rather than old things, new products have their volatility, but there are also corresponding opportunities. You can reasonably allocate some funds to play with new products, and there may be unexpected surprises at any time!
Currently, Bitcoin is testing the rising trend line, and the pattern of a rebound has been formed. All pullbacks are good opportunities to get on board. The altcoins that are promising at the current position are very suitable for getting on board in batches, and don’t buy them all!
Judging from the overall rebound strength, the AI sector and SOL ecosystem projects are relatively strong and active, indicating that the market is still optimistic about the development of these two ecosystems. We have already talked about the fan series and AI sector.
When the market is not active enough, you can choose to participate in some popular projects, because there is enough volatility, which means there is room for profit, such as ENA, WIF, SOL, RNDR, AR, etc.!
When making a layout, you should pay special attention to the unlocking status of tokens. AVEO and PYTH urgently need special attention this month. Friends who want to make a layout can wait until they are unlocked before looking for opportunities to intervene!
Overall, it is still in the early stages of a rebound, so don’t panic if it falls back. Those who have positions can gradually arrange some more positions. There is no impact from any data in the near future, so a pullback is an opportunity to get on board!
The market will not continue to fall sharply in the short term as everyone panics:
Basically, it will fluctuate in the range of 61500~66000, because the data of Bitcoin ETF including Grayscale are all in net inflow, which is not a pure signal of a sharp drop! There will be no direction in the short term, and it will fluctuate. The altcoins with narratives will perform well. Perhaps at some point in the middle of this month, the market will suddenly take off.
During the shock process, we need to control our hands!
First, long-term positions remain unchanged, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum;
Second, for short-term positions, we can buy at around 62,000 and sell at around 65,000. The longer and more frequent the fluctuations in this range, the greater our profits will be.
If it falls below, just hold on. If it breaks through, don’t worry about missing out. Trading on the right side has less risk. You can refer to Bitcoin for other altcoins.
The operating principle in May is to hold on to the chips, control the positions, not to enter into contracts, and wait for the market to take off.
This month there is a big narrative in the cryptocurrency circle, the Ethereum spot ETF. Although the possibility of it being approved is not high, after all, it is not clear whether it is a security or not, but it does not prevent capital from hyping this topic.
For example, OP was very strong in this wave of big pullback, and even rose against the trend. The performance of all Ethereum L2 currencies was very good. This may give us a signal to pay attention.
Hold on to your chips firmly, no matter whether the price goes up or down, and don't worry about losing profits due to a sudden crash. Extending the timeline will allow you to move the stop-profit line to the appropriate position.
Ethereum is still in a sluggish trend recently, but I believe that the lower it goes, the higher it will jump in the future. I will not consider exiting my Ethereum position if the price is less than 10,000.
In terms of altcoins: ASI 3-in-1 is about to be launched, Google 2024 I/O event will be held on the 14th of this month, and Apple Developer Conference will be held on the 10th of next month, which are all expected time points for key AI hype. Before the official start of the European Cup next month, the fan series is expected to be hyped until the end of this month. In the high-level sideways stage of the big cake, you can't go wrong if you take a shot in the hot sector.
In addition to these two sectors, MEME is still the main theme of the early and middle stages of the bull market. Recently, the ten-fold coin pepe has taken off again, and the old doge has also hyped Tesla's payment again. No matter what the news is, it is old wine in a new bottle. The hype every year can bring new market conditions every time. In addition to pepe, you can also pay attention to flokl in this sector of the Ethereum series. The project party is very willing to spend money and constantly ranks first in Twitter's cryptocurrency hot search! Solana's ecology is also quite strong, bonk and wif, if you give me a chance, ambush.
Back to the topic!
Why can't you make money in the so-called bull market?
After talking about the market and altcoins, let’s talk about the reasons why most of the friends can’t make money:
The first type feels that the market value or price of a certain coin has increased many times in the early stage and they dare not touch it anymore?
Take Pepe as an example. In November 2023 and January and February this year, everyone asked me which long-term coin they could buy?
I basically always mention Pepe. I said with great confidence at the beginning that PEPE might follow the path of Shib, and at worst it would at least be ten times as high. Now PEPE has given many people the answer. It has indeed grown 10 times this year, and those who thought that the market value and price were high in the early stage have learned a hard lesson, because since the beginning of this spring, among the bull market, only Pepe has grown ten times as high.
The second way is to change positions when the market fluctuates and falls?
This type of operation is undoubtedly the most dangerous in the market. For those who don’t take U as real money, let’s take the position issue that many friends talked to me about some time ago. The market is already in an adjustment trend, and you still have to move your own positions. Most of the positions in the adjustment are altcoins that have lost about 20%. Is it meaningful to switch from holding L2 concept coins to staking track coins? Will you switch a 20% altcoin to another coin and continue to lose 20%? In this way, you will lose 40% back and forth. This situation still exists at present.
During the downward adjustment process this year, only the MEME concept and RWA concept are relatively strong, and the prices have rebounded better, such as PEPE and ONDO. If you hold these, you don’t need to move and you won’t change them.
How to adjust and change warehouse correctly?
First of all, when the market fluctuates and falls, you should protect your principal first. In the case of a bull market correction, the adjustment is generally 20%-50%. You can't change it anywhere, so you have to make sure whether the coins in your hands are valuable. How to judge whether the coins in your hands are valuable is also very simple.
First, see if the token itself has a narrative. For example, I have been recommending WLD in the AI sector. This coin issued an announcement in April that it will use the L2 concept in May and June, which means it will be based on the L2+AI concept in the later stage. If Ethereum explodes, WLD will also have some movement. If there is good news in the AI sector, WLD will also have some movement. This judgment has been 80% certain in the past two days based on the popularity of the AI sector and the trend of WLD. In other words, if you use this method to find potential coins, 80% of the time you will make money, and the other 20% is the decline of the market.
The second one to look for is the leading coin that is resistant to falling. The classic one is ONDO. In the first pullback, it was observed that ONDO not only did not pull back but also rose in price. In the second pullback, ONDO slightly dropped to 0.75. I decisively used the three-layer position of hedging to buy ONDO in batches. When the price rose to 1 dollar, I sold 20% of the position. Didn’t I get the 20% profit? ONDO is still profitable now.
The third type is that they cannot hold on. They clearly have a copycat with a narrative in their hands, but they cannot withstand the volatile market and sell it during the gradual outbreak. Later, they regret chasing high prices and getting trapped.
This type of people are very impatient. They believe that the stock they buy must explode within a week. If it doesn’t explode, I will sell it. If it explodes, I will chase it. If I am trapped, I will fight to the death. Are you like this?
This case can be felt from CFX. Back in early March, people in the Hong Kong conference market were basically releasing the news that the Hong Kong conference would start in mid-March. In early March, we at Crypto Library ambushed CFX, and it exploded and doubled in about 20 days, and the principal was paid out. However, there was a very interesting scene in this process. In addition to recommending CFX in Crypto Library, including the reasons for the ambush, I basically posted it on Weibo and the Square, but the general evaluation was that CFX was a Chinese project that could not be supported. This kind of words were all scolding, which also echoed an old saying in the currency circle, "Sell when the voices are bustling, and buy when no one is interested." In fact, now is to buy in the scolding and sell when everyone is praising it.
Everyone knows what happened next. CFX went downhill after opening the Hong Kong big account. Even if it went down and broke our principal, it was just a profit-taking, which did not hurt the overall situation.
What is the correct way to take narrative copycats?
For now, as mentioned above, WLD will work on the L2 concept in the next two months. Let’s wait and see what the reaction will be when WLD successfully achieves the L2 concept.
There is another one that has been mentioned many times, the fan token CHZ. The Champions League will start in June, and the advance hype was in May, so we can also look forward to CHZ this month.
If these two coins do not perform well in May, and even if WLD has switched to the L2 concept but there is still no improvement, then consider changing positions. Don’t move before these things happen. If you move, it will be true that if you buy, the prices won’t rise, and if you sell, all the prices will fall!
I have said a lot today. It’s nothing more than that everyone is bored at this stage and can’t help but trade frequently. I hope everyone can hold on to their coins patiently and wait for Ethereum and Bitcoin to break through new highs again before thinking about selling!
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