Saturday is coming soon this week, and there will be no big events on Saturday and Sunday as no Federal Reserve officials will speak and no economic data will be released.
What we have to guard against is Israel's attack on Hamas, because there is no rest in war. If a missile accidentally hits Egypt, or Iran launches an attack behind Israel, then a war is inevitable and BTC will be affected, but the possibility is only 10%.
If there is no black swan, BTC will remain strong and is expected to return to 70,000. It seems that the interest rate cut party is about to restart. Can we continue to play music and dance?
In addition to CPI, more and more data show that the effect of the Fed's interest rate hike is showing. For example, retail sales stagnated in April and the growth rate was revised down for two months, indicating that Americans can no longer consume. U.S. household debt reached a record level in the first quarter, indicating that many Americans are having difficulty repaying their debts.
However, the probability of a rate cut in September is not too high, because Powell said on Tuesday that at least one quarter of data will be needed to determine whether there will be a rate cut. Therefore, each subsequent economic data release will bring new variables, and hopefully it will not reverse the expectation of a rate cut and cause a sharp drop in BTC.
Still optimistic about on-chain data
1. The amount of stablecoins flowing into exchanges continued to increase, with a significant inflow after 8:00 last night.
2. There are not many BTC flowing into the exchange, only more than 2,000, and the general trend in recent days is outflow.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) plans to launch spot Bitcoin trading, marking the further advancement of major Wall Street institutions in cryptocurrencies, which is good for BTC. In short, the current positives outweigh the negatives. Before Mentougou releases the news in September this year, it is estimated that there will be another wave of increases. Brothers in the car are advised to hold on patiently to avoid missing out.
Now most people are still worried about a big drop, worried about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and worried about the Ethereum ETF not being approved. All these worries lead to pessimism about the market and all kinds of complaints.
In fact, the market always starts to rise inadvertently, and it definitely does not rise when most people think it will.
You can review the inscription sector, ORDI, SATS, and SOL. When the market was optimistic, these coins all rose very well, with substantial increases, outperforming other coins, and everyone said they were awesome.
But in reality, everyone saw that his share price was rising and thought he was awesome, but did he make any money in the end?
If you want to make money, it is too late when a certain sector or a certain coin has started and everyone is optimistic about it.
If you want to make money, it's when no one cares.
Looking at the market through data, why there is no big drop in the current market:
Midea’s market makers finally stopped pretending and opened the floodgates to buy in! Funds are pouring into the crypto market like a tide, and this is just an appetizer. After all, a few hundred million dollars is really nothing in the financial market!
The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of approximately US$221 million yesterday, and has had a net inflow of over US$200 million for three consecutive days!
On May 18, the net inflow/outflow data of all current Bitcoin spot ETFs have been released. According to Tree News monitoring, BlackRock IBIT had a net inflow of US$38.1 million yesterday!
According to Farside Investors data, other ETF data are as follows:
Fidelity FBTC net inflows of $99.4 million
Grayscale GBTC net inflow of $31.6 million
Bitwise’s BITB saw a net inflow of $20.8 million
ARK’s ARKB saw a net inflow of $10 million
Invesco BTCO net inflow of $5.7 million
Valkyrie’s BRRR net inflow was $6.4 million
Vaneck’s HODL net inflow is $9.5 million
The total net inflow yesterday was about 221 million US dollars, and the overall net inflow exceeded 200 million US dollars for 3 consecutive days. This week's net inflow totaled 14,389 BTC, which has exceeded 1 billion US dollars at the current price.
What will be the subsequent trend of Ethereum this year?
Let’s first look at Coinbase’s research report and analysis conclusions
Ethereum has underperformed the broader cryptocurrency market this year, but its long-term positioning remains strong and has the potential to surprise on the upside, Coinbase said in a research note published Wednesday.
It also pointed out that the cryptocurrency does not have a "major source of supply-side excess", which means, in simple terms, there is no pressure caused by token unlocking or miners selling.
On the contrary, both staking and Layer 2 growth have proven to be significant and growing sources of consumption for ETH liquidity.
In our view, ETH’s position as the center of DeFi is also unlikely to be replaced by the widespread adoption of Ethereum EVM and its Layer 2 innovations.
In addition, Coinbase said that the importance of a potential U.S. Ethereum ETF cannot be ignored, “arguing that the market may underestimate the timing and likelihood of potential approval, leaving room for unexpected upside.”
Even if the first deadline of May 23, 2024 is rejected, we believe litigation has a good chance of overturning that decision, and in the interim, we believe ETH’s structural demand drivers and technological innovation within its ecosystem will enable it to continue to span multiple narratives.”
The above is Coinbase’s analysis of Ethereum’s current situation and the next situation.
Personally, I think this view is very objective!
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