It is destined to be noisy before and after the halving. I don't know how many times I have said this.

As a cyclical spot trader, I have always advised people to invest regularly, especially in the period before and after the halving. Every decline is an opportunity. Buy small when it falls slightly, and buy big when it falls sharply.

Even if you are trapped, you won't be trapped for long. There is nothing to be afraid of in the spot market. Don't always think about buying at the bottom. The trading market is not a fairy tale.

Don't be affected by the various short-term news in front of you. At least for now, the economic cycle has not been broken. The bull-bear conversion of the financial trading market is due to liquidity. It is not difficult to understand that prosperity must decline. It is really not that difficult to understand.

As the saying goes, "those who are involved are confused, but those who are on the sidelines can see clearly." On March 12, the U.S. stock market was circuit-breakered one after another. At that time, facing this situation, people with a little financial knowledge could also understand that the rescue of the market must be released. But in the currency circle at that time, the most common voice I heard was: "The currency circle is over." There is also a voice that wants to wait for a three-digit pie. At that time, facing various negative factors from the outside world, most of those who dared to buy at the bottom were some old traders who had experienced bull and bear markets. Maybe they are also shaken in their hearts, but at least they understand: the profit and loss ratio is very suitable.

Look at the current cryptocurrency circle, the medicine has changed, but the soup has not changed. No matter how bad the situation is, no one says that the cryptocurrency circle is going to end. But they will say that the bull market is gone and the bull market is about to end.

What I want to say is: all judgments that are separated from the macro fundamentals are nonsense. Unless you think that the cryptocurrency circle does not belong to the financial trading market. Not to mention the release of water, the interest rate has not been cut yet, you say that the bull market is going to end, it's outrageous.

In general, everything changes but the essence remains the same.

Although many people now know that the rise and fall trend of the cryptocurrency circle depends on the interest rate hike and cut of the Federal Reserve, taking the interest rate cut as an example, before the interest rate cut, many people are often affected by various negative news, or get on the bus in advance, and are trapped in panic selling. Or they have been waiting for the psychological target position, but the target position has not been reached, and they are reluctant to get on the bus. Or in the high volatility of ups and downs, they continue to trade frequently and lose their principal. There is no doubt that before the main rising wave of the bull market starts, most people are destined to be in a state of "being confused by the authorities".

One or two years later, looking back at the current fluctuations, I can only say: I wish I had held on to it.

For those who are panicking about the decline, I personally think that they are just going all in at a high position. Perhaps the panic is not about the floating loss of the position, but about the fact that they do not have the funds to buy the chips at a lower price, so they feel anxious. Facing this point, it is really easy to deal with. The first is to avoid it by regular investment. If there is no regular investment, and you go all in, then at this moment, there is no need to panic at all.

If you are now fully invested in Shanzhai, look at the current situation first. The big cake fell a few points, and the Shanzhai fell 20-30 points. Are you thinking that if the big cake continues to fall, and falls by thousands or tens of thousands of points, then the Shanzhai holdings will not fall?

Very correct. But there is still no need to worry. You are fully invested in Shanzhai, so you might as well extend the timeline. First of all, you must understand that although the big cake has broken a new high, the Shanzhai season has not come. Let's take the big cake from the bottom of 1.5w to 15w to see the increase in this round of bull market, which is 10×.

Then, for the altcoins you hold (those listed on major exchanges, not all first-level local stocks), under normal circumstances, 10-30x is reasonable in a bull market. So, if you look at the cycle in a longer term, as I said before, if you are really anxious, go and look at the K-lines of the old altcoins that have experienced bull and bear markets. It is normal to increase by dozens of times in a few months. Of course, don't argue here. I am talking about the general situation. Even if you buy EOS, Luna can't do anything.

So, at this moment, those who don't have a full position can still enter in batches, buy a little when it drops slightly, and buy a lot when it drops sharply. There is really no need to worry about a full position. If you have bullets, add them. If you don't have bullets, don't have this idea: cut now, wait for another wave of decline, and then buy again.

OK, you have to understand that if you don't cut now, your position is certain. If you cut, then the continued decline you imagine is just a matter of probability. If it continues to fall, it's okay, so you can catch it. If it doesn't continue to fall, can you accept a higher position and rush in again?

On this point, for most retail investors, my advice is to hold it and don't move. To exaggerate, even if Bitcoin goes down to 40,000, your copycat price will drop by 80%, and your coin base will not decrease. Don't hold on here, saying that you can buy more chips with the same principal at a lower price. If you know that the probability of a certain coin falling is 100%, then you still buy a coin and go short at 125x, wouldn't it be more comfortable?As I said before, probability game, if there is certainty, grasp the certainty.

Continuing from what I said before, it is possible that the big cake will surge by a few thousand points or go sideways in the future, and your cottage will double. So, don't worry.

After all, it is undeniable that in a bull market, the increase of many cottages is higher than that of big cake. As for the fact that many people's income will not exceed the increase of big cake, this is another matter. In fact, it can also be changed here. After a round of bull market, many people lose money, even if they have made a lot of profit. This is the bonus of the wind, not personal strength. Don't confuse it.

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