Bitcoin fell below $57,500 and hit a low of $56,100 in the early morning of the Asian session. The U.S. government transferred 10,000 bitcoins to the Coinbase hot wallet, and several Wall Street exchanges withdrew their applications for Bitcoin spot ETF options, triggering panic in the crypto market. Tracking the world's largest dollar stablecoin USDT, it was found that China's demand is falling sharply and the overall demand for Bitcoin spot is weak.

In the last 24 hours, a total of 57,809 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 219 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance - BTCUSDT valued at 10.831 million

There are two important meetings next Friday worth paying attention to:

1. Japan's parliament will hold a special meeting of the lower house committee to discuss the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will attend at 8:30 am.

2. At 10 p.m., Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and set the tone for a September interest rate cut.

Both meetings concern liquidity issues, which are critical to the crypto markets.

Hold on to your chips and don't get washed out

Judging from the large-scale decline of BTC, this wave of rebound formed a triple-top structure at 61.8%. With this kind of suppression, the basic price is going to go down to 38.2%, which is the 57,000 mentioned a few days ago. Judging from the rebound this morning, there is support here, and it will fluctuate in the range of 50% to 38.2% next, and it is possible that it will fall back to 57,000 for the second time.

ETH’s long order gets above 2600, and then we look for an opportunity to place a short order at 2650. It is not so easy to rebound with the volume of these two negative lines. After falling, it continues to hit a new low. Don’t think it is impossible. Everything is possible in the currency circle, which is the logic of the currency circle.

In a market where everyone is complaining, it is usually easier to make money by shorting at high levels;

In a volatile market where no one is saying anything, it is usually easier to make money by going long at a low position.

You can think about the logic behind it yourself

Interesting thing is:

According to the latest quarterly institutional holdings disclosed in the U.S. 13F report, 701 new funds have increased their holdings of Bitcoin spot ETFs in Q2, bringing the total number of holders to 1,950 funds.

1. Bloomberg: 701 new funds reported holding Bitcoin spot ETFs

2. Analyst Noelle Acheson said: The large number of funds entering the market is exciting

3. The scale of US Bitcoin spot ETF reaches 53.6 billion US dollars

Death Crossroads

The key support level of the 50-day moving average was breached again amid the fall in Japanese stocks and global recession fears. Popular cryptocurrency analyst Mags is concerned about the formation of a death cross here.

“A death cross is a bearish signal that occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, indicating short-term market weakness.” The death cross is forming for the second time since the FTX crash in September 2023. If the moving averages pull back like the previous one, it could also trigger a reversal. The magazine wrote:

“If this pattern repeats, we could see a few weeks of volatility here. Bullish confirmation would be a pullback to the moving averages followed by a nice bullish crossover.”

From a macro perspective, I am bullish on BTC and cryptocurrencies. But in the short term, without more clarity on macro factors such as recession, elections, and war, it is difficult for me to remain firmly bullish. From a technical perspective, the failure of price to recapture the range low/value zone is not satisfactory to me.

I also note that we have not been able to make higher highs since March. Summer vacation will be over in about 2 weeks and there should be more clarity then. If the monthly high of 62.8k is broken, I would think it would be a bullish sign.

History shows that the biggest increase in Bitcoin usually occurs after the halving, and the current low market sentiment does not necessarily mean the end of the Bitcoin bull market. At this time, what you need is to hold on to your chips firmly. After a long bear market, don't give up on the eve of the upcoming bull market!