Market dynamics and capital changes:
(Data is real-time data. If there are major changes in the market in the short term, the data will be greatly deviated)
The current total market value is 269.2 million, which is 94 billion less than yesterday.
Bitcoin market value is 134.86 billion, which is 43.2 billion less than yesterday.
Ethereum market value is 41.72 billion, which is 18.68 billion less than yesterday.
The total market value is reduced by 94 billion, Bitcoin and Ethereum are reduced by 61.88 billion, and the rest is the market value decline of 32.12 billion of the altcoins.
Bitcoin accounts for 50.1% of the market, which is 10 basis points higher than yesterday. Ethereum accounts for 15.5%, which is 10 basis points lower than yesterday. The altcoin accounts for 34.4%, which remains unchanged compared with yesterday.
In terms of trading volume:
Total trading volume is 104.9 billion, 7.3 billion less than yesterday,
Bitcoin is 32.95 billion, 2.92 billion more than yesterday,
Ethereum is 15.74 billion, 3.34 billion less than yesterday,
Total trading volume of Shanzhai is 56.21 billion, 6.92 billion less than yesterday,
In terms of funds:
Total funds in the market are 155.1 billion, 400 million less than yesterday, and the proportion of funds is 5.76%, which is 18 basis points higher than yesterday.
USDT: market value of 107.31 billion, an increase of 360 million US dollars compared to yesterday, trading volume of 55.2 billion, an increase of 0.14%,
USDC: market value of 32.585 billion, a decrease of 509 million US dollars compared to yesterday, trading volume of 6.28 billion, a decrease of 6.6%
Today's overall market data still continues the mixed results of yesterday
First of all, in terms of market value, as Bitcoin fell, the overall market value of the market fell, and the originally strong ETH was also weakened again, and the market value shrunk more than Bitcoin. On the other hand, the cottage market fell at the same level as yesterday.
In terms of trading volume, Ethereum and altcoins have shrunk in the decline, which is not a good thing. There are few buy orders and weak sentiment. On the other hand, Bitcoin has increased trading volume and obviously strengthened buy orders in the decline. Bitcoin's own rebound sentiment is still good. Ethereum altcoins can only look at the face of big brother Bitcoin.
In terms of funds, the retained funds in the market decreased by 400 million, and the net outflow of off-site funds was 149 million. Combined with the retained funds in the market, only 251 million funds participated in the transaction today.
The participation of funds in the market indicates that some traders are still in a positive mood, and the inflow of funds in the Asian market is also increasing. However, what is worrying is that US funds have been flowing out for the third consecutive day, and today's single-day outflow may be the largest in 24 years.
At present, it is understandable that the market expects the Fed to reduce its interest rate cuts. With the release of CPI data, the increase in US bond yields directly suppressed the sentiment of the risk market, which led to a large-scale capital flight from US traders. Although the current position of Bitcoin is temporarily stable and safe, if the funds are still a large external force, Bitcoin may indeed find it difficult to hold support.
This week, we will continue to pay attention to the liquidity of US funds. The best outcome is that after the release of CPI, funds will begin to flow back. After all, there are still many enthusiastic traders in the market to promote the rebound of Bitcoin.
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Affected by the sentiment of data, the price of Bitcoin fell below 70,000 and then fell again, directly breaking the first and second supports of yesterday. Although it has rebounded above the second support, it can be seen that under the guidance of negative sentiment, the support strength of this support is still weak. At the same time, we will find that the recent small-level support has deteriorated.
However, it is true that in this trading environment, the reduction of liquidity and the reduction of trading depth will indeed make the indicators of small-level time invalid.
For the current rebound resistance, we can directly see that the 72,700 brought by the Bollinger Bands on the daily level is the first resistance level, followed by the historical high, and then the weekly resistance level. However, it seems that everyone does not care about these at present. During the decline, many people try to chase the short position, and even more pessimistically believe that it will fall back to 50,000. To be honest, on the eve of Bitcoin halving, I am not so optimistic about this sharp decline.
Let's take a look at the support situation below:
The first support, 68,500, short-term support, slightly strong support. The support is provided by the middle line of the daily Bollinger Band, EMA7 at the 3-day and weekly levels. From a technical perspective, the support is strong, but according to the current actual situation, it has indeed fallen below the rebound in the short term, so we evaluate that the strength of the support will be reduced. At the same time, this support is also the trend of the price at the short-term daily level. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, the price will return to the safe range again in the short term.
The second support, 66,500, is a short-term support with strong support. This support is simply supported by the upper line of the monthly Bollinger Band, but I still regard this support as the strongest support position in the short term. Another reason is that there was a good turnover of chips in this price range before, which will play a certain role in stabilizing the short-term price trend. However, if this position is broken, the monthly level will be broken, then there will be more room for decline below, and Bitcoin will officially enter the correction period.
The third support, 64,000, is a short-term support with general support. This support is effectively supported by the lower line of the daily Bollinger Band and the middle line of the 3-day Bollinger Band. Although the third support is supported by many technical factors, if the second support is broken, the role of the third support will be minimal.Therefore, I will regard the third support as a support for falling buffer.
From the technical point of view, although it is not enough to be too optimistic, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. I still have to borrow a sentence from Mr. Ni. It is not necessary to be bullish if it rises, and it is not necessary to be bearish if it falls. You must understand the meaning of support and resistance. And use it reasonably.
At present, stimulated by US data, US stocks are still falling. Although there has been a rebound, the strength of the rebound is weak. On the contrary, the crypto market has ushered in a good rebound, but we still can't be too optimistic now. The monetary minutes in the early morning are accompanied by the speeches of Fed officials. If the speeches are not conducive to market expectations again, the mood will be more depressed.
But this is not a direct bearish signal. I think that as long as the Fed does not release remarks about raising interest rates again, even if the interest rate cut this year is eliminated in expectations, it will not bring too much negative sentiment. But there is normal emotional depression. After all, the current 10-year US Treasury bond has returned to around 4.5%, which will have an emotional inhibitory effect on the overall risk market.
The RSI relative strength index has dropped to around 48. Once the index continues to fall, it will trigger an oversold rebound sentiment.
We will look at the changes in market data later.
#大盘走势 #CPI数据
