Macroeconomics and news:
In terms of macroeconomics, needless to say, the current issue is whether this week’s labor force data confirms Powell’s expectation of slowing down the rate cut plan.
Yesterday we also discussed that the Federal Reserve's previously dovish remarks and now its hawkish remarks gave the world an illusion and successfully deceived Switzerland into cutting interest rates and Japan to raise interest rates. This is the genius, and we have to admit it.
At the same time, the United States, which is raising interest rates, has indeed dealt a blow to the confidence of major economies around the world. Although everyone later realized that the hegemony of the US dollar was slowly declining, it is still a strong first-class currency. There is no doubt that camels are bigger than horses.
Of course, if the employment data this week is good and confirms the idea that interest rates will not be raised for the time being, it will also reduce the probability of an interest rate cut in June again. At the same time, if the number of interest rate cuts this year is reduced from three to two, then the interest rate cut will The time will be delayed to the end of the third quarter or even the fourth quarter.
Tonight's JOLTs data should be able to see some signs. However, after the release of the non-agricultural data on Friday, the market was reassured that the Fed's postponement of interest rate cuts would not have much impact in the short term.
In fact, the Fed's interest rate cut cannot be judged by simple data at the current stage. The Fed has used good data to play with the global economy and financial markets at the expense of the loss of data credibility.
As for when the Fed will cut interest rates, it really depends on whether the Fed's purpose is achieved. The current state is result-oriented. Maybe the United States itself knows what this rate cut may mean, so it will not cut interest rates easily based on data.
Recently, the Federal Reserve has also tasted the consequences of manipulating data. The credibility of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve has declined. The crisis of American companies and banks under high interest rates has also been noticed. The sell-off of bonds and the inflow of funds into the gold market have also successfully promoted the gold market price. Breaking through historical highs. In particular, you must know that in this round of gold's turn from bear to bull, the United States itself has not taken advantage of the bargaining chip. Gold has been continuously increased by central banks other than the United States and several other countries.
The current gameplay of the United States is a bit extreme, but it is also easy to understand. Since I am going to fall, it is better to drag everyone down together, because the United States is still the one with a larger frame when they fall collectively.You can be the head of a chicken if you don't want to be the phoenix.
Due to the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, the price of gold has risen directly, U.S. bonds have been sold off, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has increased. Although funds from U.S. bonds have also flowed out, the increase in the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has changed the assessment of the entire risk market among traders, and there have been signs of risk aversion in the risk market.
At present, many people in the market are concerned about where the selling pressure in the market comes from. In fact, this topic is not easy to discuss. It can only be said that when market sentiment is restricted, the risk market sentiment is tense, and then the action will become cautious. In addition, the demand in the ETF market has decreased, and the normal selling pressure may be amplified after losing the buying power.
As I said before, under the premise that Bitcoin is constantly being held, the liquidity of the market has decreased, and the trading depth has decreased, which has led to an increase in the original price fluctuations and an increase in the volatility risk rate.
Market summary will be later.
#BTC#
LIVE
(The data is real-time data. If there are major changes in the short-term market, the data will be significantly biased)
The current total market value of the market is 2.58 trillion, which is a decrease of 122 billion compared to yesterday.
The market value of Bitcoin is 1,284.7 billion, which is a decrease of 61.3 billion compared to yesterday.
The market value of Ethereum is 394.7 billion, which is a decrease of 22.5 billion compared to yesterday.
The total market value decreased by 122 billion, Bitcoin and Ethereum decreased by 83.8 billion, and the remainder was the 38.2 billion market value drop of the copycat.
Bitcoin’s market share is 49.8%, which is unchanged compared to yesterday’s data. Ethereum’s share is 15.3%, which is unchanged compared to yesterday’s data. Altcoins’ share is 34.9%, which is unchanged compared to yesterday’s data.
In terms of transaction volume:
The total transaction volume was 143.8 billion, an increase of 27.8 billion compared with yesterday.
Bitcoin 39.2 billion, an increase of 3.8 billion compared to yesterday,
Ethereum 21 billion, an increase of 4.8 billion compared to yesterday,
The total transaction volume of Shanzhai was 83.6 billion, an increase of 19.2 billion compared to yesterday.
Funding:
The total funds on the market are 151.2 billion, an increase of 100 million compared with yesterday's retained funds, and the funds accounted for 5.86%, an increase of 27 basis points compared with yesterday.
USDT: Market value is 104.65 billion. Compared with yesterday, the market value increased by 250 million US dollars. The transaction volume was 80.4 billion, and the transaction volume increased by 29%.
USDC: Market value 32.88 billion, an increase of US$520 million compared to yesterday, with a trading volume of 10.6 billion, a 37% increase in trading volume
Yesterday we said that this week is the first week of April, and we do not expect Bitcoin to make a powerful breakthrough. As long as the data of Bitcoin and the crypto market are getting better day by day, it is a good performance. Today’s results are here Yes,
Although the market value of today's market has declined overall, the main players are Bitcoin and Ethereum. Copycats have fallen with the decline, but there are still many strong tokens rising. The overall market value of the market has not changed much, indicating that despite the decline, the copycat market has not A stampede panic occurred, and today's data performance is no longer a case of Bitcoin falling and copycats collectively falling rapidly. Many institutions and market makers of copycats are more sensitive than retail investors. During the downward trend of Bitcoin, some copycats chose to make markets to boost prices, which shows that institutions and market makers judge that the trend of the market is not completely declining.
In terms of trading volume, today's trading volume has increased compared to yesterday. However, when the market falls, the increase in trading volume is often accompanied by an increase in the power of bargain-hunting and buying orders.Especially in today's copycat market, the transaction volume has increased significantly, indicating that the confidence in the copycat market is still there. As the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum fall, the increase in transaction volume is also due to the data brought by traders increasing their holdings.
In terms of funds, today's data showed a significant change compared to yesterday. On-site retained funds increased by 100 million. Over-the-counter funds changed from yesterday's net outflow to net inflow, and the single-day net inflow reached a high value of 7.7. Especially in the United States, 520 million funds have flowed in, which means that 670 million of the over-the-counter inflows today were directly involved in transactions. This once again confirms that market sentiment is better than yesterday, and traders dare to participate in transactions.
Through the comparison of data, we can clearly see that compared with yesterday's data, there are obvious changes today, and they are positive changes. As Bitcoin falls to support, market sentiment has gradually warmed up. If the current state continues, the market will have an obvious explosion after the release of the five major non-agricultural data this week.
#BTC
