Speaking with data: The interest rate cut enthusiasm has declined, the market has reset to its initial state this week, and BTC may turn into a "troublesome little goblin"
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After Wednesday's CPI, the dot plot and Powell's speech, the market's game this week is basically over, and the final result is the failure of the bulls. Although CPI brought short-term benefits, it still lost to the dot plot and Powell's "Tai Chi" Kung Fu.
We compared the market data during Tuesday's day, when the bullish sentiment in the market had not yet erupted, with the current market data after the game ended, and the difference is basically the same.
Data interpretation:
The difference is that the proportion of Bitcoin has increased again, with Ethereum being the main blood-sucking target, while the proportion of altcoins has been sucked away by the proportion of stablecoins.
In terms of trading volume, although it experienced an ups and downs last night, compared with the non-agricultural data stage last Friday, the trading volume did not reach the same level as last week, indicating that the market is gradually becoming more cautious in the macro-emotion game. Among them, the trading volume of Bitcoin and altcoins increased significantly compared with Tuesday, while Ethereum always maintained a low liquidity and increase.
In terms of funds, the market value of stablecoins on the exchange increased by 300 million, the market value of USDT increased by 126 million, and the market value of USDC stablecoins increased by 373 million. Among them, the USDC USDC trading volume increased by 18.2%, which was slightly more active. Under the premise of a slight decline in the total market value, the market value of stablecoins increased by 300 million. Basically, these 300 million may not be external capital inflows, but the capital outflow from the exchange after the transaction was completed and temporarily stored in the market.
According to the USDC official website, as of June 6, 2.3 billion were issued and 2.1 billion were destroyed during the week, with a net increase of 200 million. Within 30 days, 9.2 billion were issued and 10 billion were destroyed. In the big cycle of one month, destruction was the mainstream of USDC. Therefore, it can be basically determined that the current flow of USDC funds in the United States is outflow rather than inflow.
However, although the funds have ended the transaction, they chose to remain in the market, which shows that the fund holders are still waiting to see the future market and waiting for market sentiment to guide them.
Summarize:
From this data statistics, we can see that after last night's game, the market only eliminated the part that had risen previously due to expected positive news, and did not trigger a bigger decline afterwards. This shows that with the game about interest rate cuts, the market's sentiment has become more disenchanted, bulls are buying cautiously under expected positive news, and bears are not overly pessimistic after the sentiment has declined.
The results of this situation are mixed. The advantage is that if there is not excessive pessimism, the decline will not be too fast. The disadvantage is that bullish sentiment is always on hold, which may eventually turn into a story of "the boy who cried wolf".
At present, the crypto market needs a strong narrative to boost it, such as Ethereum’s ETF. Otherwise, the market may face a slow and volatile correction trend in the future - turning into a "annoying" little goblin.
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