Master discusses hot topics:
Just over the weekend, quite a few fans asked me: 'Master, is there going to be a big pullback soon?' I shook my head, thinking this is really the most typical portrayal of retail investor psychology.
Whenever the market rises quickly, everyone starts to feel fear. They think that once it breaks a certain psychological barrier, there will be a significant drop, falling by tens of thousands of points.
But in reality, a pullback is a gradual accumulation process, where does such an exaggerated crash come from? If you look too pessimistic, it's like setting a time bomb in your mind, and you never know when it will explode.
The Master emphasized in previous articles that so-called major pullbacks are not random events. They need an accumulation of smaller pullbacks, and then there must be a sudden major negative event to coincide.
Currently, the market is just a minor adjustment on an hourly scale, with small fluctuations and no obvious bearish pattern. So everyone doesn’t need to panic; just follow the market's rhythm and normally buy the dips.
Every time a new high arrives, you just adjust your profit-taking points, maintain your previous targets during consolidation, and adjust your profit-taking targets timely when it pulls back to key support points, following the changes in the market.
And today, as the last week of the month, there are no particularly negative signals. The interest rate cuts in December and some minor market spikes and fluctuations will not lead to major pullbacks. So everyone can relax, looking back from April to October of this year, the market has been oscillating for so long; prolonged horizontal movements must lead to vertical movements.
A series of three consecutive monthly gains or five consecutive monthly gains are almost common, and the upward momentum of MACD is gradually increasing, indicating that market sentiment is not so pessimistic. If there are signals of a major pullback, I will definitely remind everyone in advance to prepare.
Moreover, here on the short term, we strictly execute defense every day, and risk control has been done very well. So there is currently not much risk, everyone can be assured.
As for the decline in the market, I personally believe it does not represent a major crisis. The drop over the weekend was actually just some investors exiting, related to insufficient liquidity, as the shortage of market maker funds has led to a bit of tension in market liquidity.
However, from the URPD data, especially below $80,000, many profit-taking orders have emerged, and this group of investors has not shown panic, indicating that the market remains stable.
Therefore, the overall market has not seen particularly large risks yet, at most, just a gradual decline in FOMO emotions, and a retreat in everyone's greed.
In the short term, the typical pullback range for Bitcoin is usually around 3,000 to 5,000 points. Why is this the limit? Because the current pullbacks basically belong to small fluctuations within the daily chart. As long as the 4-hour MACD does not break below the zero line, there is no need to blindly turn bearish. The short-term fluctuations in the market can be understood, but if you pursue shorting too much or blindly turn bearish, that’s just asking for trouble. The real opportunities in the market are to capture them under a stable trend, not to chase short-term fluctuations repeatedly.
As mentioned earlier, this week is the last week of the month, and it is expected that the buying power in the market may converge after Tuesday. After all, the surge on Friday and Saturday has made the market overly excited, and last night it pulled back to 95,800, which is a healthy pullback, giving the market some breathing space.
If it dips down to the 95,000 level again, as long as it doesn't break below, the Master will not turn bearish. The 4-hour MACD is already close to the zero line and has turned, with support levels between 96,000-95,800 still relatively strong, so it’s highly likely that there won't be major issues.
As for the many fans asking about small coins, it is still best to let go of them for now. Volatility may intensify at the end of the month, especially when market sentiment is weak; it's best to focus on major currencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum are two better choices. Even if they occasionally dip below low points, the market will quickly rebound.
You can also gain quick floating profits in the rebounds. Moreover, the volatility of altcoins is greater, and the pin-like response during pullbacks is also more severe, which can easily lead to injuries. Therefore, unless you can strictly grasp the trend, it’s best to operate cautiously with small coins.
As for Ethereum, from the current technical perspective, the upper edge of the left-side 4-hour center is around 3,524, while 3,600 is just an integer barrier. A daily top divergence signal has appeared, indicating a certain expectation for the end of a rebound. Ethereum should still break through the high of 3,498 to complete a small rebound, but if it can't break, it will continue to probe lower, so everyone should pay attention to the changes in structure.
So don't let the panic of a big pullback lead you astray; the market is not that apocalyptic. As long as you keep a clear mind, adjust your profit-taking targets in a timely manner, and follow the trend of the market, victory often belongs to those rational and steady retail investors.
And even if there are slight fluctuations in the short term, this is just the market accumulating strength for a larger rise. So don’t scare yourself, and don’t start worrying just because the market adjusts a bit. This is just a process; stabilize your mindset, follow the trend, and market opportunities will continue to come.
Looking at the trend:
The market is still full of expectations for Bitcoin to break $100,000, but due to the strong resistance at this psychological price level, the price may experience fluctuations.
From historical experience, within the range of creating historical highs, there is usually a rebound after a sharp drop, so you can look for entry opportunities in the sharp drop range.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 98,100.
Second resistance level: 98,500.
Support level reference:
First support level: 97,350.
Second support level: 96,500.
Today's suggestion:
If Bitcoin can hold the first support level today, it can continue to maintain the rebound view. It's recommended to pay attention to the 120-day moving average trend mentioned by the Master yesterday.
Although yesterday's important support was temporarily broken, a rebound occurred shortly after. The drop over the weekend has been partially compensated, and it is currently judged that the short-term low has been formed.
Still can maintain the rebound view.
11.25 Master’s segment pre-embedded:
Long entry reference: 95,900 light position long. If it pulls back to the 95,400-94,800 range, go long directly. Defense: 94,400. If it briefly breaks 94,400, then reduce your position appropriately. You can continue to add positions near 93,800. Target: 97,350-98,500.
Shorting entry reference: not applicable.
