#比特币打破感恩节魔咒
Master Chat Hot Topics:

Since the big cake rebounded slightly and then surged to 97K, fans and friends can't help but ask Master: "How will the monthly closing be? Will there be another rebound at the beginning of the month?" This question is almost asked once at the beginning of every month, just like asking "Is it spicy" after eating hot pot.

In fact, the answer is similar. According to historical experience, there is always a small rebound from the beginning of each month to the 5th, as if the market is taking a deep breath, taking a breath, and preparing for another fight.

Will there be a rebound in early December? According to common sense, a small rebound of 3-5K is more reliable, but a large rebound of 8K to 10,000? This remains to be seen. The market is like buying vegetables. When will the price rise or fall? Who knows. Before this, Master clearly said that he would not tell fortunes, but only believed in science.

But we must remember one thing, where we stand firm, we can make a layout. For example, the 9W that Master said a few days ago did not fall below, and the recovery decline has been so large, how can we expect a big rebound?

Now the momentum is not there yet, and guessing 80,000 or 70,000 is just a random guess. We can continue to be conservative and bearish, but don't chase high prices. Staying rational is the right way.


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#市场回暖新机遇
Advisor Discusses Hot Topics:

Due to the significant increase after the end of the pullback, many have been asking for my basis, so today I will explain why I expected the pullback to end in the past two days, primarily based on the following points:
Clearing map analysis: The reduction of long positions clearing in the 92000-91000 range indicates that market support is strengthening; meanwhile, the concentration of large short positions clearing in the 97000-94000 range may trigger a rebound, especially as shorts around 97100 are being liquidated.
Judgment of support levels: 91600 and 90850 are the key support levels near 90000. Even if 90000 is breached, it will not be easy for these two points to continue breaking down, and a strong rebound is expected in the short term. Even if there is a decline, the most likely rebound range is between 88800-92300.
Signal of weakening momentum: The downward momentum at the 12-hour level has weakened, indicating that the market is about to enter a rebound phase.
Operational strategy: It is recommended to enter the market boldly during the pullback, especially within the support range of 91600-90850. One can first establish a position and then add to it based on the market rebound situation to avoid missing opportunities and control risks.

On the second day of the pullback, I saw significant short position clearing near 97100 through the clearing map, and then the market quickly rebounded to 97200. This indicates that the market is still under the control of large players in the short term, and the liquidation of short positions triggered a strong rebound. From this point, it can be seen that combining the clearing map with technical indicators allows for a more accurate prediction of market direction.

My personal view is that there are often large players operating behind market fluctuations, and the clearing map can help us capture reversal signals. For example, many friends have told me that they expect the pullback to drop to 80000 or 76000, but I judge that this is impossible because the clearing map shows strong support in the higher range.


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#市场波动，加仓还是观望？
Master discusses hot topics:

After watching the Federal Reserve's November meeting minutes, Master feels that there weren't too many surprises. The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December still seems the highest, but this is merely a preemptive positive expectation from the market.

Speaking of news, Master has to mention the past couple of days, as soon as Bitcoin dropped, various 'negative news' started flooding in, along with reports of sell-offs and market crashes.

In fact, Master has always wanted to ask, why didn't they start reporting this earlier? Such news feels more like it aims to catch the heat after a drop; emotional news reactions can attract more attention than actual market trends. Is this not purely losing face?

As for the current market situation for the medium to long term, Master does not recommend opening short positions anymore. The two strongest bearish days have already passed, and the current adjustment is nearing its end; the 8-hour and 12-hour pullbacks have been completed, and the upcoming trend should not plunge too much.

Master has also seen many people in the market expecting a correction to possibly reach 80K or 76K, but I do not agree. Based on the current trend, the lowest should not fall below 88K or 87K.

The daily indicators are still far from the zero axis, making it difficult to assess whether there will be a significant adjustment in the short term. Especially around 90K, Master believes it will not easily break below; instead, if the indicators for 4 hours and below regain strength, it might stifle the potential for a significant adjustment and even trigger a rebound.

Therefore, the current operational strategy remains to buy on dips. If your average price is high, you can consider making a T trade, waiting for a correction to recover before looking for entry opportunities. As for shorting, it is recommended to be cautious. The buying force in a bullish market is still strong, especially after the MACD for 8 and 12 hours returns to zero, the likelihood of the market moving upwards is greater.

So if there are no strong bearish signals, short-term thinking can maintain the strategy of buying on dips. My main axis remains: when bulls are strong and bears are weak, focus on buying; when bears are strong, focus on selling. Daily resistance and support levels can serve as references, and everyone should operate flexibly based on the actual market situation, without relying on others to tell you whether to buy or sell today.

观看原文$BTC

#比特币盘整分析
Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Waking up in the morning was a shock due to the big pie, which dropped a bit again. When I opened my phone, I saw everyone asking: why can't we break through the psychological barrier of 100,000 dollars? To be honest, this question is quite philosophical, both simple and complex. It’s clearly just a step away, yet we can’t seem to take that step, leaving people feeling anxious.

From trends, data to the information front, I really haven't seen any negative signals lately. On the contrary, the fundamentals of the big pie seem quite stable. More and more listed companies are starting to allocate big pie as reserve assets, like MSTR (MicroStrategy) which purchased 55,000 bitcoins in one go.

This indicates that the recognition of cryptocurrency is increasing, but such purchases often happen through OTC (over-the-counter) transactions, which have limited direct impact on market prices. So the price doesn't rise, not because there's too much selling pressure in the market, but because the 'influence' of these buying actions hasn't quickly translated into market sentiment.

This morning I scanned the news, and the Federal Reserve mentioned a possible interest rate cut in December. The new Treasury Secretary candidate is also suggesting cuts to federal spending, which should be considered positive news for the market.

Moreover, the background sentiment of the election hasn't changed much, and these conditions seem not to disadvantage the price of the big pie. So currently, the larger possibility is the fatigue of market sentiment, especially the decline in FOMO enthusiasm, where everyone is no longer eager to chase prices but instead chooses to wait and see.
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#比特币关键区间
Advisor Discusses Hot Topics:

Just over the weekend, many fans asked me: "Advisor, is a big correction coming soon?" I shook my head in response and thought this truly reflects the typical psychology of retail investors.

Whenever the market rises quickly, fear starts to creep in. People think that once a certain psychological threshold is crossed, the market will experience a significant drop, falling by tens of thousands of points or so.

But in reality, a correction is a gradual accumulation process; where does such an exaggerated crash come from? If you look at it too pessimistically, it's like you’ve planted a time bomb in your mind, and you don’t know when it will explode.

I have emphasized in previous articles that a so-called big correction is not a random event. It requires an accumulation of smaller corrections, along with a sudden major negative factor to accompany it.

Currently, the housing market is only undergoing an hourly level adjustment, with small fluctuations and no obvious bearish patterns. So there’s no need to panic; just follow the market's rhythm and buy on dips as usual.

Every time a new high is reached, adjust your profit-taking point; maintain your previous targets during sideways movements, and when a correction reaches a key support level, adjust your profit-taking targets in line with market changes.

Moreover, today marks the last week of this month, and there are no particularly negative signals, so the interest rate cuts in December and some minor market fluctuations shouldn't trigger a significant correction. Therefore, everyone can relax. Looking back from April to October this year, the market has been fluctuating for so long; prolonged sideways movement must lead to upward movement.

Three consecutive monthly gains or five consecutive gains are quite common; the upward momentum of MACD is also gradually strengthening, and market sentiment is not as pessimistic. If there are signals of a big correction, I will definitely remind everyone in advance to prepare.

Also, on my end, we strictly execute defensive measures on a daily basis, and risk control has been very well implemented. So currently, there is not much risk, and everyone can be at ease.

As for the decline in the market, I personally believe it does not represent a major crisis. The weekend's decline is simply some investors exiting, related to insufficient liquidity; after all, the shortage of market maker funds has led to a bit of tightness in market liquidity.

观看原文$BTC

#比特币突破10万？
Master talks about hot topics:

Yesterday, Bitcoin saw a slight drop until early morning, resulting in many retail investors immediately entering a state of panic. They are worried whether the bull market is over or if we have already entered a correction phase. The Master can only say for now, the outcome is unknown, but the weekend prices really shouldn't be taken too seriously.

After all, the market liquidity over the weekend is ridiculously low; a little bit of capital can easily pump the price, and a slight selling can also crash it. As for whether it's the season of altcoin festivities, we will have to observe the attitude of American investors after the US stock market opens next week.

However, it is worth noting that if Ethereum can maintain more than a 5% increase and surpass Bitcoin, then we can start to have some cautious optimism.

Additionally, Michael Saylor mentioned in an interview that he raised $10 billion within a month to buy Bitcoin! Arkham data shows that MSTR still has $3 billion ready to buy the dip on BTC.

Although this portion of funds may not directly hit the secondary market, it is highly likely to go through OTC and other routes, but if Saylor one day announces: "I spent $3 billion to buy BTC!", then the story will indeed be exciting.

On the other hand, the big player BlackRock has also been busy, scooping up 21,294 BTC within five working days this week, spending over $2 billion. This makes us exclaim that they are indeed knowledgeable! However, the overall chip structure hasn’t changed much, and there are no signs of panic selling.

Instead, more Bitcoin prices are approaching the range of 98K to 99K. The simple translation from the Master is that at this price level, a large number of investors are jumping on board, with a total holding of over 714,000 BTC.

Moreover, there were only 880,000 BTC in total between the range of 87K to 96K, indicating that short-term investors are moving forward. As long as market sentiment does not crack, the likelihood of a significant pullback is low.

Speaking of which, the Master almost forgot to complain! I mean, the highest Bitcoin price of 99660 on the weekend, you can't say it's not a deliberate action by the market makers? Is it still the work of nature? It's not the peak that is messy, the peak is not messy! Everything follows the flow, don't panic at the peak, don't rush at the bottom～

观看原文$BTC

If the multiple armies make a little more effort, we might even see the achievement of this goal tonight. However, the advisor believes that although the opportunity is significant, there is a high probability of a short-term pullback, which may give everyone the illusion that I will break through 100,000.

Although the market is currently somewhat bullish, we need to be vigilant. The market has been moving for a while, and everyone's mood is becoming increasingly optimistic. Retail investors are starting to become overly greedy, and the risk of a pullback is very high at this time.

With this potential policy change, the market may welcome a new wave of frenzy, but we must also be wary of the arrival of a bear market. If a bear market begins, the consequences could be unimaginable—like a glide without brakes.

So in this crazy market, we need to pay attention not only to price fluctuations but also to possible policy changes and prepare a response plan. If we really encounter a bear market, there may be more bloody moments. Don't forget, during a bear market, everyone will think that cryptocurrency is a bubble, and it is only when the bear market arrives that one realizes what a bubble truly is.

Currently, Bitcoin has risen to nearly 98K, and 100K is also a psychological barrier for Bitcoin. Once broken, market sentiment may explode, especially for altcoins. After Bitcoin breaks its historical high, the market's FOMO sentiment will drive capital inflow, leading to opportunities for altcoins to explode, but the altcoin frenzy will not continue during a Bitcoin pullback.

The advisor recalls that in March of this year, after Bitcoin broke its historical high, altcoins truly exploded. Now the market needs to break through these psychological barriers to release liquidity. Therefore, only when Bitcoin breaks 100K will the explosion of altcoins come.

Yesterday, we also talked about Ethereum, so regarding the questions everyone has been asking the advisor about Ethereum and altcoins, the advisor still firmly believes it will lead the altcoin season, just like Nvidia led the US stocks to new highs. The market will always have liquidity rotation, with capital continuously flowing in search of new opportunities. So don't worry, the explosion of altcoins is just a matter of time.#BTC何时突破10万？ 观看原文

Master Chats Hot Topics:

First, let’s talk about MicroStrategy, which spent $4.6 billion in the past week to acquire 51,780 bitcoins, at an average price of $88,627. The amount of bitcoins purchased exceeded the total inflow of all ETFs in November, which was $3.5 billion. One company is taking on the entire NASDAQ and NYSE, it’s simply astonishing!

Why is Master mentioning this news first today? Everyone will understand after reading. First of all, this company truly defines what it means to be extravagant with ‘buy buy buy’! Relying on issuing bonds and increasing stock offerings, they keep buying bitcoins, making it seem like bitcoin is the only future in this world.

While other companies earn dollars, they directly aim at ‘accumulating bitcoins’, even creating a ‘Bitcoin Yield’ to assess how much they’ve bought and how efficient they are.

What is Bitcoin Yield? Simply put, it’s to see how many bitcoins they’ve purchased, how many shares have been diluted, treating bitcoins as performance metrics. Other companies calculate EPS (earnings per share), while they calculate ‘growth in bitcoins per share’, and then it turns out that they can compare their price-to-earnings ratio with Apple and Tesla, or even surpass them.

The key is this company really dares to gamble, using low-interest long-term debt instruments to raise money from the traditional bond market to buy bitcoins. Bond investors are also raising the stakes, knowing that buying bitcoins directly through ETFs is easier, yet they prefer to buy MicroStrategy's bonds, possibly attracted by this new play.

What’s even more intriguing is that this company has budgeted for a scenario: if bitcoin rises by 10%, its stock price could rise by 55%, while the price-to-earnings ratio remains unchanged. Isn’t that frustrating? So the answer emerges: MicroStrategy is not playing with bitcoins, but rather leveraging faith.

It’s like a bitcoin trust, and in the future, its valuation will depend on three major factors: high bitcoin yield, rising bitcoin prices, and the unique premium capability of the financing market. The market should not only see MicroStrategy as a bitcoin trust but also recognize its special value in the bitcoin ecosystem.

#BTC何时突破10万？ 观看原文$BTC

Master Discusses Hot Topics:

First, let's talk about the Fear and Greed Index, which skyrocketed to 90 this week. It officially announces that the market has entered a state of extreme greed, as if everyone has become a character from the cryptocurrency world.

However, history tells us that, in my personal opinion, this might not necessarily be a good thing. In the past few years, there have been three instances where the index touched 90 or even higher: at the end of June 2019, from the end of October 2020 to early February 2021, and at the beginning of March 2024.

Looking back at historical performance, the peaks in 2019 and 2024 were like the climax of a bubble drama. They came quickly and left just as fast, with the market rapidly being brought back to reality from the extreme fantasy of (I will definitely get rich).

The only time the state of extreme greed lasted for more than ten weeks was during the bull market from October 2020 to the first quarter of 2021. I remember that the greed index even peaked at 95 during that time, with market sentiment reaching an explosive point. What happened in the end? It was only when the enthusiasm of all the retail investors was squeezed dry that the market finally slowed down.

So the question arises: is this a quick reversal or a long-term celebration at the peak of a bull market? History might be reminding us: in a volatile market that transitions from bear to bull, extreme greed is like a swollen face trying to look fat; it simply cannot be sustained.

However, once we enter the peak period of a bull market, it becomes an emotional marathon, until everyone is exhausted at the finish line.

Nevertheless, in the face of the ebb and flow of market emotions, we shouldn't take it too seriously. Perhaps in the end, we can only sigh: overthinking, the retail investors are forever retail investors, only this time it's a version with "self-added seasoning"!

Master chats about hot topics:

I had a toothache for two days, and I stopped updating for three days because I went to the hospital for a dental check-up. In the face of extreme pain, I still chose to temporarily escape the market because I couldn't bear it at all.

I took a brief look at the market in recent days today, and it really made me travel back to September to the end of October last year. The story line at that time was also inflation repeated, and the market's fantasy of ending interest rate hikes was shattered.

U.S. bonds are in turmoil, with the 10-year yield rising to 5%; the U.S. dollar index has rushed all the way to 106.8; the Nasdaq has fallen so much that people doubt their lives (a 15% drop); on the other hand, Bitcoin has become the king of rebounds, soaring from 24,000 to 33,000.

Until now, although the plot has changed a bit, the core is still the same: inflation has repeated slightly, and the "interest rate cut dream" has been postponed; U.S. bonds continue to jump up and down, and the market continues to wait and see with a helpless look.

Speaking of Bitcoin and U.S. stocks, the relationship is like two good brothers at the wine table. They drink equally hard at ordinary times, but they sway at critical moments. Especially after a long period of shock adjustment, this "different frequency" is more obvious.

From April to September last year, Bitcoin took off against the market after a full five-month period of slacking off. This year, Bitcoin has been adjusting for a longer time, and the practice of more than six months seems to be saying: Hold on, I'm holding back a big move.

Then the question is, will history repeat itself? Just like the owner of the kebab stall asks you from time to time: Brother, do you want another portion? At present, Bitcoin may really have a bit of last year's flavor: US stocks have been falling, and market sentiment has been jumping back and forth between "Hey, why haven't you cut interest rates yet" and "Wow, inflation is coming again."

Bitcoin has found a wave of counter-market trends, but like last year, it depends on whether liquidity and market sentiment are strong enough. If it is really reproduced, then sit back and watch Bitcoin perform a good show of single-handedly fighting; if it is not reproduced, at least it is a suspense film, and we retail investors will not lose!

Speaking of the current Bitcoin, 100,000 is the psychological Mount Everest of the pie. There is only one chance to turn over in a lifetime, how can it be passed casually? After all, at such an important juncture, the main force and the dog dealer must do enough work and create enough momentum. $BTC $ETH

#BTC冲破9万 观看原文