First, let's talk about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision early in the morning. The outcome feels rather bland to me, with the biggest impression being that it's quite boring.

Firstly, this time the committee members unanimously decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, and the wording of the statement has also become milder: no longer emphasizing greater confidence in inflation, but instead stating progress has been made; the slowdown in employment growth has also been changed to a general easing in the market.

It is clear that the Federal Reserve is also contemplating: September's non-farm payrolls were impressive, but the unemployment rate did not continue to rise, and October's CPI slightly exceeded expectations, so they dare not be too aggressive in tone.

Powell's press conference basically had nothing new, still the same approach of taking it step by step based on data. It’s just that, if the economy is good, lower rates slowly; if the economy is bad, lower rates quickly. Hmm, the classic "flexible response"!

The most eye-catching moment was when someone asked Powell: "What would you do if Trump asked you to resign?" Old Powell decisively stated: "I won’t resign, the law doesn’t allow the president to fire me!" This response is quite on point; the Fed chairman needs to have an independent stance, which can be seen as defending the credibility of the Federal Reserve.

That said, if Trump were to come to power, a power struggle between the two is inevitable, after all, Trump is a big proponent of interest rate cuts.

As for the most concerning question of whether there will be another cut in December? Powell’s forward guidance has become lower this time; barring any unexpected events, as long as inflation rebounds significantly, there should be another cut in December. Although if Trump comes to power and implements stimulus policies, it might raise inflation expectations a bit, but the short-term impact will likely be small, and the path of interest rate cuts is expected to continue.

Returning to the market, Bitcoin has been hitting new highs while also experiencing a massive short squeeze these past couple of days. After this tumult, Bitcoin needs to take a breather, giving Ethereum the chance to shine.

On the other hand, ETH/BTC has started to take a strong trajectory, with funds flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum for two consecutive days, indicating a bit of a trend. The Ethereum ETF has seen over 50 million dollars in net inflows for two consecutive days, reaching a recent high, and the market is quite vigorous.

In the early hours, Bitcoin made a strong surge thanks to the Fed's rate cut, reaching a high of 76,850 before a slight pullback; the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones also hit new highs, but the Dow formed a "dark cloud cover" candlestick, showing some signs of divergence.

Master talks about hot topics:

The dust has settled after the election, and market volatility has significantly decreased, revealing historical patterns once again. As mentioned before, as the election approaches, the market experiences increased volatility due to changing expectations, prompting investors to seek safe havens. Once the results are announced, uncertainty turns into certainty, and volatility decreases accordingly.

After Trump's victory, the market may experience a phenomenon of 'good news fully priced in'. If policy implementation does not meet expectations, it may trigger reverse trades. In a prior discussion with fans over the phone, the master believed the market might initially surge before retreating, but the extent of the decline would be limited, and after adjustment, there would still be upward space.

After all, Trump will not officially transfer power until January next year, and truly pushing policies into effect will take one or two months after taking office. During this period, the market is filled with optimistic expectations about Trump's future governance.

I remember in October, the market driven by expectations of Trump's victory felt like being in a passionate romance, with small investors subtly indicating: 'This is the man!' The election victory felt like entering a honeymoon phase, and the market was sweet. However, as time goes on, if it becomes evident that Trump talks more and does less, disappointment may arise, causing the market's enthusiasm to gradually fade.

As someone joked: 'Trump's policies are like his new hairstyle, looking very stylish, but it's uncertain how long it will last.'

Regarding Bitcoin and Ethereum, the master mentioned in the article on October 30 that if Ethereum does not stay above 2820, then this wave of Bitcoin bulls would be the last celebration.

Because in the master's view, when Bitcoin previously broke new highs, Ethereum did not break the 2820 resistance level as synchronously as last year's Bitcoin highs, which made the master wonder if Bitcoin was a false breakout and whether it would form a weekly top divergence; perhaps we will see clarity this month.

Now, speaking of Ethereum, the master believes many friends want to continue asking, will the altcoin season come? However, this morning, Ethereum has successfully broken through the 2820 resistance level, and DEFI (Decentralized Finance) has risen across the board. It seems that market funds are flowing from Bitcoin to the Ethereum series, and BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) has sharply dropped. #特朗普宣布胜选

.师爷陈11.7：川普胜选+以太坊突破2820 蜜月过后见真章

Master discusses hot topics:

Today is also considered a historic day as the U.S. elections enter the final voting stage. However, many friends see the percentage of votes and shout 'this is safe, that is safe', but celebrating after only counting 5% is truly optimistic.

It's important to know that vote counting in the U.S. is done county by county, and the order differs by state: some states count mail-in ballots first, some count them last, some report big cities (blue) first, while others report rural areas (red) first. Therefore, the initial 'lead' or 'lag' doesn't really mean much; it's crucial to understand what kind of votes have been counted.

So, it's essential to closely monitor the situation; just looking at the numbers is useless; in-depth analysis is required. For example, in the swing state of Wisconsin, if you are a Democratic supporter, don't be too happy just because Harris is leading.

You need to check whether the counted votes mainly come from big cities (blue areas). If Harris is leading 55% to 45% in Milwaukee, don't rush to celebrate. In 2020, Biden led here 60:40, so this lead might actually indicate it's not very secure.

Similarly, if Harris is temporarily trailing in North Carolina, don't be pessimistic. Look at Charlotte (dark blue), which has only counted 6%, indicating that blue votes have not fully come in yet. To understand the situation, you need to know the rules first. Otherwise, it's just wild guessing; it's better to wait for the final results.

By the way, just a few days ago, the market was buzzing about who would win and what impact it would have on the market, but now it has become surprisingly quiet. Everyone is holding their breath, seemingly afraid that saying one more word would invoke Murphy's Law.

If you are in the cryptocurrency circle but don't understand the tricks of capital and are unclear about how your wealth accumulates or dissipates, you will ultimately have to passively accept the arrangements of fate. The election results are indeed worth paying attention to, but they do not have a substantial impact on Master’s trading decisions.

Master focuses more on long-term trends and techniques, which are more important than merely waiting for external news and letting others dictate your fate. #BTC创历史新高

观看原文

Come on, come on, today the master will first discuss the major events that we small retail investors believe are worth paying attention to. Tomorrow is the decisive moment of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and the results will be announced at 6 PM Beijing time. Currently, Harris and Trump each hold 49% support, and the swing states are really all over the place, making the election situation quite dizzying.

One moment we're hearing that Harris has a slight lead, and the next moment there's news that Trump has locked in a victory early. That said, this election is like a guessing game — you never know who will jump out and say guess who I am.

The rumors of election fraud in Pennsylvania are everywhere, and it's all resting on the courts now: should we acknowledge those somewhat interesting ballots, or just invalidate them outright? If Pennsylvania turns red, the Republican Party will have a complete turnaround; but if Pennsylvania turns blue, the Democratic Party will probably breathe a sigh of relief.

However, speaking of betting, just look at the odds in the U.S. BC market: Trump's odds are rising sharply, while Harris's are circling on the floor. Both the dealers and retail investors are following the trend to buy Trump, after all, no one wants to go against their own wallet.

Harris's side is also puzzling; she just announced this as her 'last campaign speech'. Come on, she hasn't even been elected yet, why is she already pulling a 'farewell'? This 'playing hard to get' seems deep, but is actually just 'the emperor's new clothes', right? #美国大选

观看原文

Only the American elections are like a soap opera, long and torturous. Ultimately, it's because the 'daddies' behind the two parties are playing a game. On the surface, elections seem like a party struggle, but in reality, it's about whose policies align better with capital's interests, so that capital can continue to control the future.

Earlier, Musk made a bold statement: 'If Trump comes to power, the US stock market will drop 10% to 30%, and the housing market will be in jeopardy.' Speaking of this, I actually have more faith in Harris. Structurally speaking, regardless of who comes to power, the Nasdaq is destined to fall below 16212.

If Trump really can win, it indicates that the capital group has a 'Buddha-like heart' and is willing to undergo 'rebirth'; otherwise, Harris is stable. Harris's policy plans to impose a 7% tax on domestic companies, which means that the profits of companies in the Nasdaq and S&P will be directly slashed, and the US stock market will naturally tighten. Don’t you think the connection behind this is quite subtle?

Returning to Bitcoin, if the interest rate meeting on November 6-7 results in a rate cut, it might bring a wave of increase; if not, the market is likely to remain the same. Non-farm payroll data supports a cut of 25 basis points, but the election results mixed in are likely to trigger a big market movement in advance.

So, the Bitcoin market has already understood the situation clearly; regardless of who comes to power, the structure won't change. The operators play for their own interests and won't worry about Trump or Harris. Once the election results are out, market fluctuations may actually be less than expected—at most, there will be some ups and downs before returning to the original track. The benefit of the election for the operators is to create volatility, increase divergence, and continue telling stories.

So you don’t really think that if Harris is elected, Bitcoin will drop sharply, right? If Trump is elected, can we immediately expect $100,000? If it were really like that, the teacher would have to quit and surrender half. The critics who attack other bearish analyses can’t criticize me anymore, okay? 点击观看原文 #美国大选

12,000 new jobs seem a bit precarious, but Bloomberg's estimates are exaggerated and the market was already prepared. The super strong hurricane and Boeing's strike are peculiar factors that mean the October data is not reflecting an economic collapse; instead, it makes everyone feel better about the possibility of interest rate cuts.

The absurdly low new job numbers, the expected unemployment rate, and the manufacturing PMI being above expectations create a combination that not only dispels the shadow of recession but also brings about the fantasy of interest rate cuts.

Additionally, this data may also calm market anxieties about a Trump victory, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields struggling against pressure. Market attention will shift from the election back to the economy and inflation, but the final election result will be the truth that determines future policies and market direction.

Ultimately, the conclusion drawn by the advisor is that this data from the Federal Reserve is not really meant to be taken literally but is more like a code for the various capital groups to interpret.

It is highly likely that this non-farm employment data will be significantly revised downwards, just as the advisor mentioned in his analysis two days ago; it's as if they don't even want to pretend anymore.

The personal analysis regarding Bitcoin and Ethereum's mid to long-term prospects has already been discussed in previous articles. As for the U.S. elections, regardless of who takes office, the impact on the cryptocurrency market is limited. And as the election approaches, it is also a time for capital flight.

This means that a large amount of capital will flee from the U.S. stock market, which will indirectly lead to a collapse of the U.S. stock market. If the Nasdaq plunges, one can only imagine what kind of repercussions Bitcoin might face. The dollar index being favorable will also undoubtedly affect Bitcoin.

If you are worried that the bull market is gone, then the advisor wants to tell you that the change between bull and bear cycles has always been a market rule; everything has its own rhythm, especially in financial markets.

Currently, we are in the latter half of a bull market, so rather than worrying about whether the bull market will disappear, it may be more beneficial to learn to think about whether you can seize the opportunity to make money in this bull market??? #非农就业人数大幅降温 师爷陈11.2：非农冷笑话 做个有韧性的韭菜！

Master Chen 11.1: With the general election, non-farm payrolls, and major corrections, can your bull market belief still hold up?

Master’s hot topics:

In the past two days, fans and friends who found Shiye basically asked several questions on the phone. One is still about how long the bull market of Bitcoin will last, and the other is when will the buying opportunity of altcoins come? Then there’s the question of whether Ethereum’s recent sluggishness will lead to a major correction?

Due to limited time, Master did not go into details on the phone, so today I will write it in a little more detail in the article.

Today is the beginning of November, so let me first talk about the market trend outlook from November to December. First of all, regardless of whether Bitcoin can reach a new high, or only slightly reach a new high, it will face a situation of "the height is too cold" - the weekly top divergence is about to form, indicating that a long and significant wave of correction is coming.

It can be said that November will be the turning point for Bitcoin from bull to bear! Against the background of the end of the U.S. election and possible second interest rate cuts, the historical performance of U.S. stocks before and after the second and third interest rate cuts is also unsatisfactory, and there is often a large retracement.

The economic "faucet" on the old and American side has been tightened, and the Bitcoin bubble cannot continue to blow. For this, you can refer to the analysis that Shiye posted before, which to a large extent analyzed the market derivation after the US election and interest rate cuts.

Therefore, the current Bitcoin bull market has reversed, and it does not matter how much the current price rises. The trend of major corrections in the later period will not change. You must first understand the trend before you can discuss transactions.

Secondly, although Ethereum has rebounded in the past two months, it is still difficult to break away from the short trend on the daily line, and has repeatedly hit the wall in front of the 2820 pressure level. Historical data shows that in November and December during non-bull markets, Ethereum always tends to go down.

Therefore, there is a high probability that Ethereum will continue its short trend this time and may fall below the 2,000-point mark. At the same time, altcoins will fall to new historical lows one after another, a desolate trend.

#市场关注美国非农数据 师爷陈11.1：大选、非农、大回调，你的牛市信仰还撑得住吗？

For the US economic data significantly exceeding expectations, the advisor is no longer surprised, because since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, US economic data has hardly ever been poor. Unless something unexpected happens, the US non-farm payroll data to be released tomorrow will definitely also exceed expectations, so the next step for the Federal Reserve to slow down or even possibly stop interest rate cuts is very likely. What is the purpose of this? Mainly to maintain the strength of the US dollar index and the rise of US stocks, because as long as the US dollar index remains strong, the US can continue to harvest global market capital. Next, it will depend on who can outlast whom. Initially, the Federal Reserve claimed it would never cut interest rates, but eventually, on September 18, it couldn't help but cut rates. Now the Federal Reserve can completely choose not to cut rates or even continue to raise rates, and if it goes to the extreme, the market also has that patience to endure.

Following the trend mentioned in yesterday's article by the Master, Bitcoin stood at 72450 today, marking four consecutive days of gains. Market sentiment is extremely bullish, with everyone looking optimistic. Those who are more rational have already sensed a potential pullback. The bears are few and far between, as anyone attempting to be bearish like the Master did earlier will likely face backlash.

However, the Master believes a pullback is on the way, with the last stubborn resistance likely around 69500~70000 for short-term plans, providing a reliable entry point for medium to long-term positions.

Bullish volume has shrunk, and the short-term targets are nearly reached; it's time to rest and recharge for the next assault on 74000. If the bears exert even a little force, a pullback isn’t difficult to achieve.

I only share my own market analysis logic, without relying on deception to please others, nor do I engage in mysticism or maintain an air of secrecy about divine insights. In the trading market, clarity is key; less fluff and more substantial sharing of insights.

Additionally, many retail investors are feeling anxious, still holding positions and wanting to jump in, but the market is currently in a bullish phase. Chasing prices now feels a bit like 'catching a train'—it’s easy to get trapped. The mindset is crucial, and the Master offers you two pieces of advice:

1. Wait for a pullback: Pray for the market to give you an entry opportunity, and do not jump in as it 'takes off.' Typically, the market will pretend to take off and then pull back when everyone is excited.

The short-term pullback bottom is likely around 69500, with a possible extreme at 65000; returning below 60000 is nearly impossible. The crypto market is a long race; if you miss the best entry point this time, ask yourself why, learn the lesson, and you will be more precise next time.

2. Enter on the right side: Opportunities for bottom-fishing have become rarer; if Bitcoin firmly stabilizes above 70000 and accumulates enough chips, the bottom will be basically established, making it wise to look for entry opportunities then.

Many people get entangled; think about how you once hesitated before Bitcoin in the 50s or even 40s, only to regret it later. If God gives another chance... But then remember, during those years when Bitcoin was at 15000, we didn’t go all in, and now regretting it is pointless.

As for Ethereum, the Master remains bearish in the medium to long term, with expectations for it to drop back to 2000 dollars. 师爷陈10.31：比特币的最后倔强 再不上车要被套？ #Btcoin

As long as Trump takes office, or even if he is certain to take office, the capital groups on the losing side will flee in large numbers, and this flight will most likely bring down the U.S. stock market. Therefore, if the primary election on November 6 indicates that Trump is set, then the losing financial capital will also flee before Trump takes office. #美国大选后行情预测

Watching the market's confidence in Trump's victory soar, the advisor felt a bit uneasy, sensing that there might be a 'big surprise' lurking behind. In recent days, I closely followed Vice President Harris's interviews on Fox News on the 17th and CNN on the 25th. There are countless analyses and comments online, but the genuine impression can only be described in one word: disaster. Especially on CNN, the Democratic 'home ground,' her performance was simply evasive. The host repeatedly attempted to steer the conversation back to the core topics, but she danced around like she was doing Tai Chi, completely dodging the questions, putting on a classic performance of 'nine questions, no answers.'

In contrast, Democratic bigwigs like Obama and Clinton are making a concerted effort to rally votes. However, the struggling sister's performance is so poor that it inevitably brings to mind an old saying: 'The minister wants to fight to the death, but how can the leader surrender first?' Watching this 'battle of the titans,' even the most unreasonable scenarios seem to become reasonable, making one want to joke: Trump might just win by lying down, and Biden's 'motherly help' is really a hindrance! #美国大选

Master Chen 10.30: How much longer can BTC fly? Remember to bring your parachute! 师爷陈10.30：BTC还能飞多久？记得带好降落伞！#比特币突破7万美元