The mentor discusses hot topics:

With the U.S. stock market closing last night, the last day of Biden's presidency has officially come to an end. Even SEC Chairman Gary published a farewell message on this day, as if the financial sector is quietly changing personnel. Speaking of the future of cryptocurrency, the mentor cannot say it is necessarily bright.

But one thing is certain: Trump is still currently awaited by cryptocurrency users, and this expectation itself has become a market driver. This trend has been mentioned many times by the mentor in articles last year, starting from the election and exploding during the transition, and its conclusion may not be too far off.

The master discusses hot topics:

The recent market is still full of FOMO sentiment, with no new macro data, and the whole world is watching Trump's next moves. The 'final major speech' on the 19th, the swearing-in on the 20th, and the administrative topics on the 21st.

It can be said that the emotional fluctuations over the past three days directly determine the market trend, even serious assets like U.S. stocks and bonds are looking dull, waiting for Trump to start speaking. Although Bitcoin rebounded to 102k this morning, it is still garbage time. Why?

Because everyone doesn't care about the present at all, they are just focused on whether Trump will have any big news about cryptocurrencies. You should know that American media has been more gossipy these days than the crypto circle, speculating on what Trump will say: 'Will he mention Bitcoin? Will there be a big stimulus policy?' What about the fluctuations in the dollar index?

Advisor discusses hot topics:

Last night's CPI data was undoubtedly a catalyst for the market; the news of slowing inflation seemed to blow away investors' anxieties like a fresh breeze. However, blindly believing that the Federal Reserve will immediately turn to easing might be a bit wishful.

After all, I'm not a bookworm reading under the lamp, and I won't annotate 'big interest rate cuts' just because of a slight breeze. Even if there will be policy loosening in the future, it is unlikely to happen in the first quarter. In the short term, these data are more about stimulating the market on an emotional level, and the substantial driving force is insufficient.

Returning to Bitcoin, it surged directly past 100k last night. The advisor has to admit that this aggressive advance has indeed injected a lot of confidence into the market during the power transition.

Advisor discusses hot topics:

Let's first talk about the fact that the Federal Reserve is almost certain not to cut interest rates in January, and it's very likely that there won't be a cut in March either. If we really believe in the dot plot, the two rate cuts in 2025 are likely to be in the second half of the year, with no sign of a cut in the first half.

So, the Federal Reserve has a clear understanding now; inflation decisions are not made based on one data point. Even if the December CPI drops to 2%, do you think they will slam the table and cut rates immediately? Don't be ridiculous; rate cuts are a slow process that comes with time.

Of course, market sentiment still needs to be considered, especially tonight's CPI. Last month it was 2.7%, and this time the market expects 2.9%. As long as it’s below expectations, it's a good sign; the lower, the better.

Master discusses hot topics:

I didn’t update yesterday due to some matters, and as a result, Bitcoin's needle-like performance dropped to around 88909. Now reflecting on what I clearly stated in the article on January 9, I was determined to ambush medium to long positions around 89K, and this wave is the third charge, with the ideal entry point at 88.8K.

Around 10 PM last night, Bitcoin gave the opportunity as expected. By now, it has almost gained 7K, which is quite stable. That said, yesterday's price action was indeed exhausting, dropping from morning until 10 PM, resembling a script that first brings despair and then offers hope.

Master talks about hot topics:

When the market fell yesterday, many people pointed fingers at the Silk Road, calling it the culprit. But in the capital market, any news that can be quantified is not considered a real bearish factor.

During the grayscale sell-off and the Mentougou liquidation, didn’t the market just stir for a while and then pass? What truly scares people is the unknown. Once the cards are on the table, the panic is almost over.

Let's talk about tonight's non-farm data; many people think there will be significant movement, but it's actually not that exaggerated. The market always acts in advance; the real drop has already been digested in the previous days.

Talking about hot topics:

First, let’s talk about tomorrow night's non-farm payroll data; I have also seen the commotion in the market. Many people's views are that 70k and 80k for Bitcoin are already on the way. I have to say: those watching the excitement will always feel the market isn't hot enough, while those really in the game are waiting for genuine opportunities.

I have always been preparing to set up a medium to long-term long position near 89k, ready for a third charge. The question is whether the market is willing to give me this face? Personally, I wouldn't bet on it!

Looking back at this week, the Federal Reserve's small actions have been numerous enough, and the benefits of interest rate cuts are right there for all to see, but economic data makes people doubt life. Tomorrow night's non-farm data will likely hover around expectations; it won't be explosive but also won't crash.

Hot topics discussed by the master:

Caught a cold and missed a day, thanks to all the fans for their concern. Last night, US stocks plunged, and the crypto market didn't escape either, directly leading to a sharp drop in entry prices.

Currently, there might be a slight rebound during the day, but later tonight it might need another hit. However, after last night's drop, the market is already in disarray, so it shouldn’t continue to fall today. After all, short-term indicators also need a breather to recover.

Back to the main point, last night’s plunge, the master saw many people in the market saying it was due to the 11 PM JOLTs job openings data and ISM non-manufacturing PMI data. These two data points are indeed significant; one shows job openings at a new high, indicating that employment opportunities are abundant, and the unemployment rate could be even lower.

Master Discusses Hot Topics:

A new week begins, and the weekend's market performance for Bitcoin truly confirms the 'Weekend Law'. There was little fluctuation, even to the point of questioning life. From the data, the weekend liquidity was pitifully low.

The turnover rate is also at bear market levels, with short-term players busy entering and exiting. Medium to long-term players are too lazy to move, fully embracing the holiday atmosphere.

However, upon closer inspection of the data, the master found that the turnover rate over the weekend was almost catching up to that period before last year's election. At that time, the situation improved significantly after the election, but now it's back to the old path. So the question arises, what does this indicate?

Hot topics of Master Chat:

Today, let's talk about the US dollar index first, because it has always been closely related to the US stock market and the pie circle. Although the US stock market and the pie circle look good for the time being, the US dollar index has quietly rushed to more than 109, and is just one step away from breaking through 110.

I vaguely remember that the U.S. dollar index reached a high of 115 in 2022. Although we cannot say that we have entered a full bear market yet, we can clearly feel that the market's risk appetite is declining.

I have said several times before that the market in 2025 can only take one step at a time, especially in the first quarter. Maybe because of the emotional effect of the power transfer, the market can still take a breather. But once we enter the second quarter, it depends on the strength of Trump's support for the big cake.