Those who read me before the stock markets opened on the last day of September undoubtedly took their precautions and decided not to operate with cryptoassets. I don't have a crystal ball, but an Iranian response to the invasion of Lebanon could not be so imminent, and even more so when Iran had announced that it would not intervene in the war. The truth is that even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believed it. Seeing him trembling in front of the cameras stunned the entire West and seeing him running in the bunkers even more so. After having massacred 42 thousand children and women in the Gaza Strip, he finally had to face one bigger than him. We all know that Israel, without the protection of the United States, would have been forced to live in Holy Peace with the Palestinian people. By now it is known that the number of missiles with which Iran attacked Israel has exceeded 500 and that the Iron Dome has been saturated. You can see in the immense amount of videos circulating on the networks the countless number of accurate impacts of the Iranian missiles. What everyone wants to know is, what will happen next? In the best scenario, the US convinces Israel not to retaliate, the Zionists need to retaliate with their planes in order to reach Iran and this logistics can only be offered by the US. On the other hand, it is already public knowledge that Benjamin Netanyahu himself called Wladimir Putin to try to mediate with Iran. You already know that the greatest fear of the Americans is what Iran can do with the Strait of Hormuz, the channel through which 20% of the world's crude oil circulates and which Iran can use to strangle the world economy, so it is not easy to declare war on Iran. So in this first scenario, Israel, as it did in the first attack, decides not to counterattack and the stock markets would gradually return to normal. In the second scenario, the US takes a chance with Iran and launches an attack against Iranian military and nuclear facilities. This would have to be added to the support of some countries such as Jordan, through which Israeli planes would be forced to fly. If the US goes all out, it would launch missiles from ships and submarines. This scenario would unleash Iranian fury, which would attack all Western vessels and, in the worst case, would close the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the West and part of the Arab world to launch an operation to free the strait. We must remember that Iran has one of the largest arsenals of anti-ship missiles on the planet. On all its coasts and mountains there are mobile launchers that would cause catastrophic damage to tankers in all countries, but would hit the US and British navies, causing irreparable losses to the Royal Navy and the US Navy itself.the last scenario is the most catastrophic and I personally would not rule out, Israel, which possesses an unknown number of nuclear warheads decides to use them against strategic Iranian targets, it would need to deploy no less than ten nuclear warheads on Iranian soil, what Iran does not recognize but is an open secret is that by this date it already has nuclear weapons, most likely mounted on the Fattah hypersonic missile, which as soon as Israel's missiles hit Iran will be launched against Israel, you can imagine what could become of Israel with its 22,145 km² if it is attacked with nuclear weapons, in this scenario and in the previous one what would follow would be an apocalyptic scenario for the entire Middle East and for the planet, the stock markets would reach negative balances, this is the biggest dark swan that the markets will see coming but most likely will not see return.

At the present time what is imposed is not to operate in the market, there are those who take risks and buy on the falls, who may not have hit bottom, or simply got caught in the market and decide to wait and not change at a loss, right now humanity must put itself in the hands of those they consider to be its creator and if this really intervenes in human affairs stop what seems imminent: A nuclear war with global impact between countries that possess such weapons, that is the most likely scenario at the present time simply because the US has fallen into "the Thucydides trap, which refers to the lethal structural tension that occurs when a new power challenges an established one (China emerges, the US is displaced) that creates the conditions for a war to break out, given the emergence of a multipolar world and emerging powers such as the BRICS + which is an association of emerging countries, which has been established as an alternative international space to the G7, made up of developed countries, with the loss of the hegemony of the dollar, history has shown that the response of the G7 to the birth of the BRICS+ would be a great war, as described by the father of "scientific historiography" and the school of political realism, the Athenian Thucydides in his account of the Peloponnesian War (5th century BC).

So all we can do is pray, implore or meditate. For now, the market's future is uncertain. May God help us!

Jorge Ferrer

Bachelor of Business Administration