I am surprised to read what all the pages on BINANCE or on most of them post, making predictions about the price of BITCOIN ignoring that all markets at this time are under pressure from the war in the Middle East. How do you explain to them that 20% of all the oil on the planet passes through the Strait of Hormuz under the control of Iran, today Israel made it clear that it will retaliate against Iran, when? we do not know, soon? perhaps, will they destroy Iran's strategic infrastructure? power plants, nuclear plants, industries, will it use nuclear weapons? I can believe anything about Israel, after seeing them massacre 42 thousand children and women in the Caza strip and shit themselves in the UN and in the international criminal court, in Turkey and throughout the planet, being under the protection of the US, Israel will do anything, including using atomic weapons. Does Iran have atomic weapons? I would bet that yes, mounted on hypersonic missiles, if they did not have them, Iran's response against Israel will be brutal, its entire arsenal is in mountains, they will launch about 10 thousand drone missiles against Israel, and believe me, they have them, Iran is impossible to invade, after the damage that Israel causes to Iran, Israel will be destroyed. What will happen to the markets? Let's look at the past, when the winds of war blow over the markets, investors remain in the trenches. Before the outbreak of a conflict, volatility takes over the markets and stock and cryptocurrency traders seek shelter in so-called safe haven assets, that is, those values ​​that even in times of uncertainty usually maintain their value. Gold, fixed-income funds and currencies.

There are also those who say "Buy when the cannons sound and sell when the trumpets sound." This quote is attributed to the financier Nathan Rothschild. And although it seems that he never said it, like Einstein and the Eighth Wonder of the World, it has been etched into the collective imagination of investors.

But is this really the case? Let's focus on just the two conflicts, the ones best known to investors: World War I, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average already existed and was widely followed.

That summer of 1914, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria caused an outbreak of tension that ended at the end of July with the start of the war, which led to the closure of the New York Stock Exchange for 4 months. The Dow Jones plummeted to almost its lowest level since its inception and, although it recovered in 1915, it remained very volatile for a few years. When the armistice was signed, it did rise sharply. Although it was not until the beginning of the 1920s that it began to soar... until the crash of 1929.

The second major test came in 1940, when fears of the outbreak of World War II paralyzed the markets, and when the invasion of Poland began, one of the greatest episodes of hysteria in the markets broke out.

The Dow Jones lost 23% in two weeks, due to fears that the Nazis would invade England as well. But the worst for the Dow Jones came the following year, when Japanese troops bombed the American base at Pearl Harbour and the US responded by entering the war with all its might. The stock market continued to fall until April 1942, when it hit its lowest point and began to recover. In December 1945, four months after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Dow Jones had already doubled its value.

He who forgets history is condemned to repeat his mistakes, I am not a prophet of disaster, I am just an analyst who bases his comments on history, on objective research, and who does not seek to generate fear or panic, only to protect people like me, if there is a peace agreement and the market regains confidence I would be the first to celebrate it, do not forget that the resources I manage, not personal but institutional, are in a proportion of 80/20, with 80 BITCOIN being the majority. Let us trust that rationality will prevail and that we do not make the mistakes of the past, he finished with a piece of the song by Mercedes Sosa, for the reflection of my invisible friends:

I only ask God

May war not be indifferent to me

It's a big monster and it stomps hard

All the poor innocence of the people

Jorge Ferrer

Bachelor of Business Administration