1. The United States proposed a ceasefire between#Hezbollahand #Israel, but the details are still unclear. Due to concerns about the expansion of the conflict, Hezbollah and Israel are drafting a ceasefire proposal with the support of the United States and its allies. Countries supporting the plan include the United States, the European Union and#SaudiArabia. Previously, Israel attacked the leader of Hezbollah's drones in Beirut. Israel launched a precision airstrike against Hezbollah's drone commander in Beirut. Fierce fighting with Iranian-backed organizations continues. Hezbollah fired 45 rockets into northern Israel, which brought a brief calm to northern Israel.

2. Let's talk about the US #降息 . In the past economic cycles, every time the Fed cut interest rates, the unemployment rate would rise. This is because they did not have time to respond to the deteriorating job market. This situation may happen again because the data has a lag. In order to effectively reduce the unemployment rate and increase employment, will the Fed cut interest rates by another 50 basis points next time?

3. The number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States fell to the lowest level since May, and the labor market cooled moderately, but there is no evidence that large-scale layoffs have led to an economic slowdown, because the data they are concerned about is no longer inflation, but unemployment. If the#unemploymentrate continues to rise, the Federal Reserve will have reason to increase the rate cut (Figure 1)

4. As of now, the market value of the index has increased by 8 trillion US dollars, and the average daily trading volume so far this year is 43 billion US dollars. US stocks will continue to rise.

5. Continuing from the previous point, the current wave of gains brought by #软着陆 has caused most stocks to rise. So far, the bottom 490 stocks have been in a steady upward trend, while the top 10 stocks have fluctuated. As for the market cycle, earnings and valuations are currently expanding, putting the market in a state similar to 2016 and 1995, both of which were favorable responses to the temporary suspension of the tightening cycle (Figure 2)

6. Investors’ allocation to#stockshas reached an astonishing 61%, which is the highest level in at least 40 years. From 2009 to now, this share has almost doubled, which is consistent with the level of the Internet bubble in 2000. However, it is interesting that#bondallocation is at its lowest level in 15 years (Figure 3)

7. Combined with the data, an interesting phenomenon is that falling oil prices usually indicate a weak economy, which has an adverse impact on stocks. Although this is sometimes true, it is not always the case. Recently, oil prices have recorded one of the largest declines in the past two years.

In fact, falling oil prices tend to lead to lower interest rates when the economy is still growing. In addition, high-risk bonds remain highly sensitive to #recession, but their recent performance is very strong, indicating that the market is not too worried about a recession. As analysts raised their earnings expectations for the S&P 500 and suggested that companies give positive guidance, it is too early to worry about a recession.

8. Continuing from the previous one, there is still evidence that #美国经济 is heading for a recession. The labor market shows clear signs of weakness, and leading economic indicators also show that the economy is in poor condition. This type of downward trend usually occurs before or during a recession, but it still lacks the key factor of economic shock.

Historically, every recession has been triggered by a clear shock, whether it's an oil crisis or a housing bubble or a market crash. There's usually a clear cause for the downturn, and until we see that shock, the economy may continue to boom, and the stock market, at least for now, will continue to rise.

9. Not long ago, Bitcoin#ETFinflows exceeded $1 billion in the past 12 trading days

10. Bitcoin $BTC's STH (short-term holders)#MVRVis similar to the situation in November 2023, before rebounding to $73,000. In both cases, the indicator exceeded the 155-day average MVRV. Do you think history will repeat itself again? (Figure 4)

11. PayPal announced that US merchants can now buy and hold or sell cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum through their business accounts, and can also choose to transfer cryptocurrencies to third-party wallets

12. It’s been a while since I talked about Ethereum. The second layer of $ETH continues to grow exponentially, with nearly 30 million active addresses. Although there was FUD in the market for #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 some time ago, I am still optimistic about the development of#Ethereummainstream public chain.