If you’ve traded $ETH futures, you know how volatile and unpredictable its price action can be. In my experience it is more volatile and unpredictable even compared to $SOL and $BTC. Other SMC-type tools like supply-demand zones, order blocks, and FVGs often fall short due to frequent overshoots, leading to false signals and stop-loss hits.
❗️IMPORTANT❗️I advise you to stay away from futures, especially if you are beginner ❗️This strategy can as well be applied to spot trading liquid coins. If you are just starting read my other article
That said, I’ve found a time-based strategy that works quite well for me, especially in ranging markets. This approach draws on concepts from ICT (Inner Circle Trader), which, in my opinion, falls into the same category of strategies as SMC (Smart Money Concepts) and others. While I don’t consider any of these approaches a “holy grail,” certain elements—like the time component—stand out as effective. In a way this strategy is just variation of support/resistance trading, which sometimes can provide more accurate entry/exit points.
How the Strategy Works
1. Mark Key Levels
Each morning, I identify the highest and lowest prices $ETH reaches between NY 18:00 and 00:00 (including wicks). I draw horizontal lines at these levels to serve as potential liquidity points.
2. Watch for Tests
During the London session or NY AM session, price often tests one of these levels. When it does, I aim to trade from that level towards the opposite.
3. Look for Volume Confirmation
Before entering a trade, I often seek volume-based confirmation. For a long trade, I like to see higher volume in green candles, and for a short trade, higher volume in red candles. This helps validate the level being tested.
4. Use Candle Patterns with Caution
While I find candle patterns often unreliable, they can still provide valuable confirmation when used in conjunction with key levels and volume. I don’t rely on them in isolation but use them as an extra layer of confidence. Combining volume signals with key levels has significantly improved my confidence in entries.
5. Second Chance Entries
Price frequently tests these levels twice—once during the London session and again during NY AM. If I miss the first test, the second often offers another opportunity for a solid entry. It also means I usually don’t exit trade if price reverses for retest. Actually it is even safer to enter on second test.
6. Accept Minor Overshoots
Price may overshoot or undershoot slightly, but in most cases, the wicks reach these marked levels. Patience and candle patterns are key here.
This strategy isn’t foolproof—especially in trending markets where it can miss entries or backfire—but it works reliably in more than half of cases during ranging conditions. I will test it in a trends and maybe write results as I am ready.
It’s important to note that this is based solely on my personal experience and opinion. As with any trading approach, standard risk management practices—such as correct position sizing and stop-loss placement—are critical to managing potential losses.
I’m actually holding a short from the 3152 right now. I believe price can overshoot to 3180 in which case I add to the trade. I will take partial profit around 3040 and 3015.

Don’t trust me blindly. Back test it with smallest possible position size. And remember it may fail if market goes out of the range to continue trend or reverses - we have stop losses to catch that. I’m aware that 20-30 trades I made following it is not enough to be completely sure, but we also should remember that market is inherently unpredictable anyway and always implement RM. But on the other hand I’m so confident that I didn’t quit from the trade today when saw $SOL getting higher even though they are correlated assets in my opinion.
One more thing, I’m trading NY hours, sometimes EU. I don’t have an opinion about how to apply it to overnight hours.
Well these experiments also indirectly prove that “smar money” are actually interested in ETH which also may mean bright future for Ethereum in a long run. 😀
Would you like me to elaborate on any details about this strategy?
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$ETH #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥