降息
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2025 is an Opportunity for Young People
Happy New Year, friends! Recently, I found time to look at the major global investment banks' (2025 Investment Outlook) reports, and I wanted to discuss with you some economic trends in 2025 that are worth our attention in light of the global economic situation in 2024.
The overall environment is entering a global easing policy cycle.
In the second half of 2024, global economic policies will start to shift, and global #通胀 will begin to ease, with most economies starting to cut interest rates. This means that the global economy is gradually transitioning from a 'de-leveraging' phase to a 'leveraging' phase. Such a shift is beneficial for supporting economic growth and risk assets such as stocks and high-yield bonds.
The overall environment is entering a global easing policy cycle.
In the second half of 2024, global economic policies will start to shift, and global #通胀 will begin to ease, with most economies starting to cut interest rates. This means that the global economy is gradually transitioning from a 'de-leveraging' phase to a 'leveraging' phase. Such a shift is beneficial for supporting economic growth and risk assets such as stocks and high-yield bonds.
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On the 18th local time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would lower the benchmark interest rate target range by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5%, which was the first rate cut since March 2020. In the past four years, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times, and the benchmark interest rate has continued to increase from 0%-0.25% to 5.25%-5.5%.
Historically, almost every round of interest rate cuts has been accompanied by a recession in the US economy.
In this chart of the US Effective Federal Funds Rate, the red shaded area is the period when the National Bureau of Economic Research determines that the United States is in a recession.
It can be seen that from the oil crisis in the 1970s, the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s, the Internet bubble at the turn of the century, to the global financial crisis in 2008 and the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, every time the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply, it was highly coincident with the shadow range of the recession.
This is why rate cuts are sometimes seen as a "signal of economic weakness" - the Fed usually cuts rates when the economy is in trouble, trying to stimulate economic recovery through looser monetary policy
Daily market analysis, high-quality potential currency recommendations. Long-term irregular recommendation of high-quality individual coins and market analysis, follow the homepage Xiaozhi and don't get lost. #token2049 #新币挖矿HMSTR #降息
Historically, almost every round of interest rate cuts has been accompanied by a recession in the US economy.
In this chart of the US Effective Federal Funds Rate, the red shaded area is the period when the National Bureau of Economic Research determines that the United States is in a recession.
It can be seen that from the oil crisis in the 1970s, the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s, the Internet bubble at the turn of the century, to the global financial crisis in 2008 and the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, every time the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply, it was highly coincident with the shadow range of the recession.
This is why rate cuts are sometimes seen as a "signal of economic weakness" - the Fed usually cuts rates when the economy is in trouble, trying to stimulate economic recovery through looser monetary policy
Daily market analysis, high-quality potential currency recommendations. Long-term irregular recommendation of high-quality individual coins and market analysis, follow the homepage Xiaozhi and don't get lost. #token2049 #新币挖矿HMSTR #降息
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On the 19th, the Federal Reserve announced a decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. That night, U.S. stocks rose and then fell, and Bitcoin was also affected. After the U.S. stock market closed, Bitcoin began to exert its strength and closed with a positive line. Due to Powell's speech after the interest rate decision, the market generally believed that this rate cut was a positive signal. On the evening of the 20th, the U.S. stock market opened higher and the trend was stable.
Observing the current market performance of Bitcoin, the previous decline led to divergence in various cycles. Coupled with the warming of the news, it is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, and the main pressure is at $64,000 and $67,000.
Next, let's talk about the situation of altcoins. Most altcoins have experienced a deep correction and are basically at the bottom of the weekly level. It seems that there is not much room for decline. Therefore, in this Bitcoin rebound, altcoins performed strongly, and many currencies have risen by more than ten points. This strong momentum is expected to continue in the next few days. In particular, the bitcoin ecosystem-related currencies and several meme currencies we mentioned earlier have performed well, especially CKB, which has risen by nearly 300% driven by the news of landing on South Korea's largest exchange UP, which is amazing! The market for altcoins still has room to rise, so just hold it. Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision on the 20th. The last interest rate hike in Japan caused a sharp drop in the market. This time, investment banks including Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and 53 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg generally predict that the Bank of Japan will keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. If so, the market should remain stable on the 20th. As long as there is no external black swan event, Bitcoin should be able to rise steadily.
In the long run, does this mean that a bull market is coming? I don't think so. A 50 basis point interest rate cut is a more radical measure, and the US economy may not be as optimistic as Powell said. Historically, a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the beginning often indicates that the economy may have a hard landing and a financial crisis may occur in the future. We must be vigilant about this. Although the specific time cannot be predicted, we need to remain vigilant. After all, even Buffett is holding a large amount of cash in case of an emergency. We expect the market may experience another sharp drop, and then with the help of the Federal Reserve's printing press, the bull market may really come!
#降息
Observing the current market performance of Bitcoin, the previous decline led to divergence in various cycles. Coupled with the warming of the news, it is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, and the main pressure is at $64,000 and $67,000.
Next, let's talk about the situation of altcoins. Most altcoins have experienced a deep correction and are basically at the bottom of the weekly level. It seems that there is not much room for decline. Therefore, in this Bitcoin rebound, altcoins performed strongly, and many currencies have risen by more than ten points. This strong momentum is expected to continue in the next few days. In particular, the bitcoin ecosystem-related currencies and several meme currencies we mentioned earlier have performed well, especially CKB, which has risen by nearly 300% driven by the news of landing on South Korea's largest exchange UP, which is amazing! The market for altcoins still has room to rise, so just hold it. Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision on the 20th. The last interest rate hike in Japan caused a sharp drop in the market. This time, investment banks including Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and 53 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg generally predict that the Bank of Japan will keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. If so, the market should remain stable on the 20th. As long as there is no external black swan event, Bitcoin should be able to rise steadily.
In the long run, does this mean that a bull market is coming? I don't think so. A 50 basis point interest rate cut is a more radical measure, and the US economy may not be as optimistic as Powell said. Historically, a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the beginning often indicates that the economy may have a hard landing and a financial crisis may occur in the future. We must be vigilant about this. Although the specific time cannot be predicted, we need to remain vigilant. After all, even Buffett is holding a large amount of cash in case of an emergency. We expect the market may experience another sharp drop, and then with the help of the Federal Reserve's printing press, the bull market may really come!
#降息
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Anticipated once again! Please pay attention to our real-time information, which will be of great benefit to the operation! Regarding the pin, several previous articles have repeatedly mentioned that the position of 6.9 needs to be repeatedly impacted and tested. After it officially stabilizes, there will be no upward pressure, and the first pressure after the breakthrough is 8.2. In addition, it is no longer important to insert the pin. The upside space is opened. If you insert the pin, you will take the pin. This is looking out for you and I will pick you up later!
#BTC #非农数据 #降息 $BTC
#BTC #非农数据 #降息 $BTC
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#降息 #5月市场关键事件
Powell's speech yesterday was neither dovish nor hawkish, and he seemed to be preparing for a big one, but it doesn't matter anymore. What we need to pay attention to is whether to cut interest rates this year, which is the key to whether the bull market can continue to rise!
Summarize the key points of yesterday's speech:
1: Interest rate outlook: Reiterate that interest rates may remain high for a longer period of time, do not think that inaction may be a rate hike, and are more likely to maintain the policy interest rate level at the current level.
2: Inflation outlook: Confidence in the decline in inflation is lower than before, and the lack of further progress in inflation in the United States in the first quarter is noteworthy: the inflation rate is expected to fall month-on-month.
3: Economic outlook: The US economy is performing very well, with a very strong labor market, and GDP is expected to continue to grow at a rate of 2% or higher, which benefits from the addition of new labor.
4: Market reaction: Since Powell's speech, gold has basically remained sideways, rising to a maximum of $2,356.72. The three major U.S. stock indices generally showed a V-shaped trend.
5: Latest expectations: The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a cumulative 40BP this year, with the probability of rate cuts in June and September at around 50%, which is basically consistent with the situation before Powell's speech.
Powell's speech yesterday was neither dovish nor hawkish, and he seemed to be preparing for a big one, but it doesn't matter anymore. What we need to pay attention to is whether to cut interest rates this year, which is the key to whether the bull market can continue to rise!
Summarize the key points of yesterday's speech:
1: Interest rate outlook: Reiterate that interest rates may remain high for a longer period of time, do not think that inaction may be a rate hike, and are more likely to maintain the policy interest rate level at the current level.
2: Inflation outlook: Confidence in the decline in inflation is lower than before, and the lack of further progress in inflation in the United States in the first quarter is noteworthy: the inflation rate is expected to fall month-on-month.
3: Economic outlook: The US economy is performing very well, with a very strong labor market, and GDP is expected to continue to grow at a rate of 2% or higher, which benefits from the addition of new labor.
4: Market reaction: Since Powell's speech, gold has basically remained sideways, rising to a maximum of $2,356.72. The three major U.S. stock indices generally showed a V-shaped trend.
5: Latest expectations: The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a cumulative 40BP this year, with the probability of rate cuts in June and September at around 50%, which is basically consistent with the situation before Powell's speech.
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Are there any characteristics in the Fed's seven rate hikes? When will it start cutting rates?
1. The seven interest rate hike cycles in the history of the Federal Reserve occurred in the following time periods:
The first round of interest rate hikes:
Time: March 31, 1983 to August 9, 1984
Interest rate change: Federal funds rate increased from 8.50% to 11.5%
Duration: 17 months, 10 rate hikes
The second round of interest rate hikes:
Time: January 5, 1987 to May 17, 1989
Interest rate changes: The interest rate increased from 5.87% to 9.81% (some say it was a 6.5% increase to 9.8125%, the exact figures may vary slightly depending on the data)
Duration: 28 months, 22 rate hikes
The third round of interest rate hikes:
Time: February 4, 1994 to February 1, 1995
The first round of interest rate hikes:
Time: March 31, 1983 to August 9, 1984
Interest rate change: Federal funds rate increased from 8.50% to 11.5%
Duration: 17 months, 10 rate hikes
The second round of interest rate hikes:
Time: January 5, 1987 to May 17, 1989
Interest rate changes: The interest rate increased from 5.87% to 9.81% (some say it was a 6.5% increase to 9.8125%, the exact figures may vary slightly depending on the data)
Duration: 28 months, 22 rate hikes
The third round of interest rate hikes:
Time: February 4, 1994 to February 1, 1995
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The Fed wants to cut interest rates, but is afraid that the market will think it doesn’t want to! The Fed’s inconsistent behavior is unusual
The Fed finally managed to hold on in June. It is rare that the CPI data and the interest rate decision are released at the same time. This is because the Fed has made a direct statement before, right? He said that weak employment will make us cut interest rates in advance, but strong employment does not necessarily make us postpone the interest rate cut. What determines whether we will postpone the interest rate cut is the inflation data. This is a typical example of not speaking human language. Although his own logic is fragmented, we can still sort it out for everyone. What exactly is this statement saying?
First of all, because he discussed the factors that affect whether the interest rate cut is in advance, right? So, the first thing we need to reach a consensus on is to cut interest rates in advance, that is, to cut interest rates in advance is a stimulus policy, which is expected by the market and everyone wants to see, right? Then, delaying the interest rate cut is equivalent to a contractionary policy, which is what the market does not want to see. At this time, let alone continuing to raise interest rates, even delaying the interest rate cut will make everyone feel nervous. Then he mentioned two data indicators, one is the employment rate and the other is inflation CPI. The employment rate is a leading indicator, which usually changes before the economic changes. What does it mean? It means that everyone must first get a job, so that the company can start work, produce products, and everyone can earn money, right? With income, he will spend it. Therefore, the indicator of the employment rate changing in advance, you can also understand it as the employment rate, which is more like a sign. On the contrary, the inflation rate, CPI is a lagging indicator. It usually starts to change after the economy has changed. CPI will only change after everyone has started working and producing, received income, and consumed it. So you can also understand that the inflation rate is already the result.
First of all, because he discussed the factors that affect whether the interest rate cut is in advance, right? So, the first thing we need to reach a consensus on is to cut interest rates in advance, that is, to cut interest rates in advance is a stimulus policy, which is expected by the market and everyone wants to see, right? Then, delaying the interest rate cut is equivalent to a contractionary policy, which is what the market does not want to see. At this time, let alone continuing to raise interest rates, even delaying the interest rate cut will make everyone feel nervous. Then he mentioned two data indicators, one is the employment rate and the other is inflation CPI. The employment rate is a leading indicator, which usually changes before the economic changes. What does it mean? It means that everyone must first get a job, so that the company can start work, produce products, and everyone can earn money, right? With income, he will spend it. Therefore, the indicator of the employment rate changing in advance, you can also understand it as the employment rate, which is more like a sign. On the contrary, the inflation rate, CPI is a lagging indicator. It usually starts to change after the economy has changed. CPI will only change after everyone has started working and producing, received income, and consumed it. So you can also understand that the inflation rate is already the result.
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$BTC
🔥Why the entire cryptocurrency industry is looking forward to a rate cut🔥
1. Increased liquidity: There is more money in the market, and the rate cut has led to sufficient funds in the market. Some funds have flowed into the cryptocurrency market, pushing up prices.
2. Safe haven demand: When there is economic uncertainty, investors seek safe havens, and cryptocurrency becomes a new option, and demand rises.
3. Expectations of currency depreciation: Interest rate cuts have led to a decrease in the attractiveness of currencies, and investors may turn to cryptocurrency to preserve value.
4. Market expectations: The expectation of a rate cut has triggered the market to make early arrangements, driving up cryptocurrency prices.
5. Market specificity: The cryptocurrency market has 24-hour non-stop trading, which is more conducive to flexible inflow and outflow of funds.
#非农就业数据即将公布
#美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率增幅创2021年3月以来新低
#降息
🔥Why the entire cryptocurrency industry is looking forward to a rate cut🔥
1. Increased liquidity: There is more money in the market, and the rate cut has led to sufficient funds in the market. Some funds have flowed into the cryptocurrency market, pushing up prices.
2. Safe haven demand: When there is economic uncertainty, investors seek safe havens, and cryptocurrency becomes a new option, and demand rises.
3. Expectations of currency depreciation: Interest rate cuts have led to a decrease in the attractiveness of currencies, and investors may turn to cryptocurrency to preserve value.
4. Market expectations: The expectation of a rate cut has triggered the market to make early arrangements, driving up cryptocurrency prices.
5. Market specificity: The cryptocurrency market has 24-hour non-stop trading, which is more conducive to flexible inflow and outflow of funds.
#非农就业数据即将公布
#美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率增幅创2021年3月以来新低
#降息
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Bitcoin and Ethereum tested the trend line and rebounded, but the strength was not strong. It was not enough to directly pull up. Those who arranged in the morning should pay attention to grasp the profits, and those who are short can find opportunities to enter the market! Pay attention to the pressure of 2666-2680 and 643/650 above! #比特币 #以太坊 #降息 #美联储
大瀑布你无法想象↓↓↓
68%
比特币原地升天↑↑↑
29%
其它，在评论区补充~
3%
152 votes • Voting closed
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Dear family members, the market is ever-changing, but calmness is our shield and strategy is our sword.
It is expected that the market will face a violent fluctuation, and there may be a situation of "downward ⬇️ pin-inducing short selling". This is not only a test of our strategy, but also a moment to show our execution and patience.
The market may suddenly fall 📉 to induce short selling, but remember that this may be a trap 🪤.
Our eyes are locked above 3887, which may be the key resistance level for the market rebound.
We just need to wait quietly for the best time to attack like a crocodile 🐊, and don't be disturbed by market fluctuations. Once the market gives a clear signal of Abi's strategy 📶, execute the operation plan quickly and decisively! ! #热门话题 #5月非农数据即将公布 #MegadropLista $ETH #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #降息
It is expected that the market will face a violent fluctuation, and there may be a situation of "downward ⬇️ pin-inducing short selling". This is not only a test of our strategy, but also a moment to show our execution and patience.
The market may suddenly fall 📉 to induce short selling, but remember that this may be a trap 🪤.
Our eyes are locked above 3887, which may be the key resistance level for the market rebound.
We just need to wait quietly for the best time to attack like a crocodile 🐊, and don't be disturbed by market fluctuations. Once the market gives a clear signal of Abi's strategy 📶, execute the operation plan quickly and decisively! ! #热门话题 #5月非农数据即将公布 #MegadropLista $ETH #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #降息
Finally I waited for you, fortunately I didn't give up❗️❗️ I just want to sing a song at this moment🎵At four o'clock in the morning🕓ETH broke through the first pressure level of 3850 and the previous high, until 3887, it began to pull back a little bit. Are you starting to be at a loss now? Don't panic, be sure to read Abi to give you a standard answer!
At four o'clock in the morning, ETH broke through the first pressure level of 3850 with an unstoppable momentum and set a new high of 3887. This is not only a jump in numbers, but also a strong signal of market confidence📶
Although the current price has begun to pull back slightly, those who followed Abi's heavy positions have become headless flies at this moment, and they want to stop when they see the good. At least the current stop profit is also a considerable profit!
But Abi asks you not to panic, this is just the market preparing for the upcoming bigger market. Remember! The drama has just begun, and tonight will be the highlight❗️❗️
In the past few days, the market has been volatile, making many people nervous, but Abi has always believed in his strategy and encouraged everyone to go long, and gave a precise entry point! If you look through Abi's articles in the past week, you will find that my views are consistent and accurate. I have added positions at the lowest point many times. Last night's pullback also clearly told everyone that it was the last chance to get on board.
Now is the time to stay calm, firm in strategy, and continue to follow the pace of the market. Don't be confused by short-term fluctuations, look at the long term, and grasp the big trend❗️❗️
Let's look forward to tonight's market together. Every pullback is the market accumulating strength for our next leap! Abi's position is larger than yours, let's witness 3900-4100 together❗️
Finally, remember to follow Abi! #热门话题 #5月非农数据即将公布 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #MegadropLista $ETH $BTC
At four o'clock in the morning, ETH broke through the first pressure level of 3850 with an unstoppable momentum and set a new high of 3887. This is not only a jump in numbers, but also a strong signal of market confidence📶
Although the current price has begun to pull back slightly, those who followed Abi's heavy positions have become headless flies at this moment, and they want to stop when they see the good. At least the current stop profit is also a considerable profit!
But Abi asks you not to panic, this is just the market preparing for the upcoming bigger market. Remember! The drama has just begun, and tonight will be the highlight❗️❗️
In the past few days, the market has been volatile, making many people nervous, but Abi has always believed in his strategy and encouraged everyone to go long, and gave a precise entry point! If you look through Abi's articles in the past week, you will find that my views are consistent and accurate. I have added positions at the lowest point many times. Last night's pullback also clearly told everyone that it was the last chance to get on board.
Now is the time to stay calm, firm in strategy, and continue to follow the pace of the market. Don't be confused by short-term fluctuations, look at the long term, and grasp the big trend❗️❗️
Let's look forward to tonight's market together. Every pullback is the market accumulating strength for our next leap! Abi's position is larger than yours, let's witness 3900-4100 together❗️
Finally, remember to follow Abi! #热门话题 #5月非农数据即将公布 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #MegadropLista $ETH $BTC
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Don't be a loser carried away by market sentiment
Three days ago, everyone was shouting about new highs.
Trump, interest rate cuts, Musk, ETH ETF, all good news.
I said, don't fomo yet, wait and see, try not to push it up, block out the noise and observe.
Now, let’s talk about the macro news. There is no one-sided bull or bear market.
Even if it is a new high, it is achieved by betting while watching and observing, not by shouting it out.
There could be many reasons for the increase:
The interest rate is going to be lowered, Trump is going to be elected, the compensation of Mt Gox is not large, the German government has sold out, and Musk has changed his avatar to Cyclops.
There are many reasons for the fall:
Harris has a high chance of being elected, MT Gox is about to crash, and there are many economic uncertainties in the interest rate cut.
Trump, interest rate cuts, Musk, ETH ETF, all good news.
I said, don't fomo yet, wait and see, try not to push it up, block out the noise and observe.
Now, let’s talk about the macro news. There is no one-sided bull or bear market.
Even if it is a new high, it is achieved by betting while watching and observing, not by shouting it out.
There could be many reasons for the increase:
The interest rate is going to be lowered, Trump is going to be elected, the compensation of Mt Gox is not large, the German government has sold out, and Musk has changed his avatar to Cyclops.
There are many reasons for the fall:
Harris has a high chance of being elected, MT Gox is about to crash, and there are many economic uncertainties in the interest rate cut.
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Hot topics on October 2
Web3 hot topics on October 2
1. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 63.3%
The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 63.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 36.7%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 32.6%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is 49.6%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 100 basis points is 17.8%.
2. Geopolitical tensions may affect the Fed's interest rate cut plan
Geopolitical tensions may pose a challenge to the Fed. Rising oil prices may offset recent progress on inflation and affect consumer confidence. Oil prices are a risk that the Fed cannot control, and the potential price pressure from port strikes may exacerbate Wall Street's concerns about inflation, making it more difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates significantly.
3. Cryptocurrency assets plunged after Iran launched 200 missiles
On Tuesday, Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, causing the biggest drop in digital assets in nearly a month. The market is concerned about the possibility of intensified conflicts. Digital assets have recently been more consistent with stock trends. Macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have a greater impact on BTC.
4. The Japanese government opposes the Bank of Japan's premature rate hike
Japanese Economic Minister Ryomasa Akazawa said that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba does not necessarily actively support the Bank of Japan's rate hike, highlighting the government's opposition to raising borrowing costs too early. Akazawa's remarks implied opposition to raising borrowing costs again too early.
5. Small non-farm ADP added 143,000 jobs in September
According to CNBC, the number of ADP jobs in the United States in September was 143,000, with an expected 128,000, and the previous value was revised from 99,000 to 103,000.
#9月小非农数据高于预期 #加密市场急跌 #伊朗导弹袭击以色列 #降息 #BTC☀
Web3 hot topics on October 2
1. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 63.3%
The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 63.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 36.7%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 32.6%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is 49.6%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 100 basis points is 17.8%.
2. Geopolitical tensions may affect the Fed's interest rate cut plan
Geopolitical tensions may pose a challenge to the Fed. Rising oil prices may offset recent progress on inflation and affect consumer confidence. Oil prices are a risk that the Fed cannot control, and the potential price pressure from port strikes may exacerbate Wall Street's concerns about inflation, making it more difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates significantly.
3. Cryptocurrency assets plunged after Iran launched 200 missiles
On Tuesday, Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, causing the biggest drop in digital assets in nearly a month. The market is concerned about the possibility of intensified conflicts. Digital assets have recently been more consistent with stock trends. Macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have a greater impact on BTC.
4. The Japanese government opposes the Bank of Japan's premature rate hike
Japanese Economic Minister Ryomasa Akazawa said that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba does not necessarily actively support the Bank of Japan's rate hike, highlighting the government's opposition to raising borrowing costs too early. Akazawa's remarks implied opposition to raising borrowing costs again too early.
5. Small non-farm ADP added 143,000 jobs in September
According to CNBC, the number of ADP jobs in the United States in September was 143,000, with an expected 128,000, and the previous value was revised from 99,000 to 103,000.
#9月小非农数据高于预期 #加密市场急跌 #伊朗导弹袭击以色列 #降息 #BTC☀
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With the European Central Bank looking set to begin full rate cuts ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve,
credit spreads denominated in euros are likely to tighten, Bank of America analysts said in a note.
European credit is cheaper relative to U.S. credit, and expectations of ECB rate cuts should boost euro credit, Bank of America said. The ECB is widely expected to begin cutting rates at its meeting next week,
while the first rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve looks months away. #降息 #MegadropLista #新币挖矿 $BTC
credit spreads denominated in euros are likely to tighten, Bank of America analysts said in a note.
European credit is cheaper relative to U.S. credit, and expectations of ECB rate cuts should boost euro credit, Bank of America said. The ECB is widely expected to begin cutting rates at its meeting next week,
while the first rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve looks months away. #降息 #MegadropLista #新币挖矿 $BTC
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The interest rate cut storm is coming! Can altcoins hold up?
The latest developments in monetary policy have sparked heated discussions among financial experts.
One notable shift in opinion came from Bill Dudley, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Dudley, who once advocated higher interest rates to curb inflation, is now calling for an immediate rate cut.
Bill Dudley called for an immediate rate cut, marking a major change in economic strategy amid recession fears.
Dudley's unexpected policy shift
In a notable about-face from once a staunch supporter of keeping interest rates high for the long term, Bill Dudley now believes that waiting until later in the year to adjust rates could unnecessarily increase the risk of a recession. This is a sharp reversal from his earlier assertion that the current federal interest rate of 5.3% might not be enough to curb economic growth.
One notable shift in opinion came from Bill Dudley, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Dudley, who once advocated higher interest rates to curb inflation, is now calling for an immediate rate cut.
Bill Dudley called for an immediate rate cut, marking a major change in economic strategy amid recession fears.
Dudley's unexpected policy shift
In a notable about-face from once a staunch supporter of keeping interest rates high for the long term, Bill Dudley now believes that waiting until later in the year to adjust rates could unnecessarily increase the risk of a recession. This is a sharp reversal from his earlier assertion that the current federal interest rate of 5.3% might not be enough to curb economic growth.
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Interpretation of important information on June 6:
✦Today's transaction volume of 6 Hong Kong virtual asset ETFs was HK$59,839,300.
✦The net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs yesterday was US$489.9 million
✦The number of unemployment benefits just announced was 22.9, expected to be 22, and the previous value was 21.9.
✦SEC Chairman: The speed of listing of spot Ethereum ETFs depends on the issuer
Summary: Today's Hong Kong ETF inflows nearly doubled compared to yesterday's 25,692,800 Hong Kong dollars. Yesterday's US Bitcoin ETF net inflows also increased several times compared to the inflows of the previous two days. Tonight's unemployment benefits were higher than expected, and have been higher than expected for two consecutive weeks, which means that the labor market has seen a sharp and sudden weakness, further prompting the Fed's view of gradually easing monetary policy. The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank have successively announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which means that the era of high inflation will soon become a thing of the past. The market will definitely rise strongly again. Ethereum's ETF will be launched in the near future. Finally, the big non-agricultural data at 20:30 tomorrow night will also be very eye-catching. Let's look forward to meeting expectations.
#现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准 $BTC $ETH #降息
✦Today's transaction volume of 6 Hong Kong virtual asset ETFs was HK$59,839,300.
✦The net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs yesterday was US$489.9 million
✦The number of unemployment benefits just announced was 22.9, expected to be 22, and the previous value was 21.9.
✦SEC Chairman: The speed of listing of spot Ethereum ETFs depends on the issuer
Summary: Today's Hong Kong ETF inflows nearly doubled compared to yesterday's 25,692,800 Hong Kong dollars. Yesterday's US Bitcoin ETF net inflows also increased several times compared to the inflows of the previous two days. Tonight's unemployment benefits were higher than expected, and have been higher than expected for two consecutive weeks, which means that the labor market has seen a sharp and sudden weakness, further prompting the Fed's view of gradually easing monetary policy. The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank have successively announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which means that the era of high inflation will soon become a thing of the past. The market will definitely rise strongly again. Ethereum's ETF will be launched in the near future. Finally, the big non-agricultural data at 20:30 tomorrow night will also be very eye-catching. Let's look forward to meeting expectations.
#现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准 $BTC $ETH #降息
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Non-farm payrolls are higher than expected. Whether the US will cut interest rates in September will determine the trend of the cryptocurrency market in the second half of the year!
The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in May were 272,000, expected to be 185,000, and the previous value was 175,000. The unemployment rate in the United States in May was 4%, expected to be 3.90%, and the previous value was 3.90%.
The data results are higher than market expectations. Previously, many people believed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September was 77%. After the release of non-agricultural data, the probability was 55%.
It reminds me of the Ethereum ETF that was approved some time ago. The market was almost convinced that it would not be approved. The result was obvious.
I often share the topic of interest rate hikes in 2023
Shared on June 15, 2023, Bitcoin stopped falling from 26,000 to 30,000 US dollars
The data results are higher than market expectations. Previously, many people believed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September was 77%. After the release of non-agricultural data, the probability was 55%.
It reminds me of the Ethereum ETF that was approved some time ago. The market was almost convinced that it would not be approved. The result was obvious.
I often share the topic of interest rate hikes in 2023
Shared on June 15, 2023, Bitcoin stopped falling from 26,000 to 30,000 US dollars
See original
#降息 Those who still use interest rate cuts as a standard to invest in the cryptocurrency circle are either stupid or cheating. Can something that everyone can see have an effect on the market? Then most people can make money, but the question is, can most people make money?
This is a common thing, and common things are simple, but simple things are not easy. #美国4月核心PCE指标显示通胀放缓 #
This is a common thing, and common things are simple, but simple things are not easy. #美国4月核心PCE指标显示通胀放缓 #
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Will the Fed cut interest rates again?
Economic growth: The U.S. economy is expected to continue to grow in 2024, but the growth rate may slow down from 2023. Some forecasts show that the U.S. economic growth rate will slow down from 2.4% in 2023 to 1.5% in 2024. This trend may affect the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
Inflation level: Although the U.S. inflation rate has eased over the past year, it is still higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. The speed of inflation decline and future trends will be key factors for the Fed to consider whether to cut interest rates.
Labor market: The U.S. labor market is cooling, and data such as unemployment rate and employment indicate that the labor market is gradually easing from a tight state. This may provide room for the Fed to cut interest rates. #美联储何时降息？ #加密市场反弹 #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #BTC走势分析 #降息
Economic growth: The U.S. economy is expected to continue to grow in 2024, but the growth rate may slow down from 2023. Some forecasts show that the U.S. economic growth rate will slow down from 2.4% in 2023 to 1.5% in 2024. This trend may affect the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
Inflation level: Although the U.S. inflation rate has eased over the past year, it is still higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. The speed of inflation decline and future trends will be key factors for the Fed to consider whether to cut interest rates.
Labor market: The U.S. labor market is cooling, and data such as unemployment rate and employment indicate that the labor market is gradually easing from a tight state. This may provide room for the Fed to cut interest rates. #美联储何时降息？ #加密市场反弹 #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #BTC走势分析 #降息