2024.9.15:

After the U.S. CPI report was released earlier this week, the market almost believed that the Federal Reserve would slightly cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month, but the situation reversed sharply from Thursday. At that time, former New York Fed President Dudley said that the Fed had reason to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. A reporter from the Wall Street Journal known as the "Fed News Agency" and the Financial Times also reported that the Fed was faced with whether to cut interest rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points. After making a difficult decision, the market's bets on the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate cut next week significantly increased to "50-50".

The bull market in U.S. Treasuries intensified, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a 15-month low as traders increased bets on a 50 basis point rate cut at next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The U.S. dollar was nearly flat this week, falling below 101 on Friday, setting a new weekly low. Gold continues to surge to record highs, rising more than 3.2% this week, its largest weekly gain in five months. The three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded strongly to nearly two-week highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising for five consecutive days, both achieving their best weekly performances of the year. Crude oil lost momentum to continue its rebound after Hurricane Francine, but still ended the week higher, ending a four-week losing streak.

There will be many key risk events next week, the first of which will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and updated summary of economic forecasts. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also hold policy meetings. In terms of data, retail sales in the United States and the United Kingdom, and inflation reports from Canada, the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and Japan are all worthy of attention.

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