Realistic Expectations.
If I had to be honest.
I think why I got so mad at the Bitcoin space is people you trust keep hollering these outlandish expectations and you internalize them and believe. And then see the reality in the ChART and realize your hero's are either stupid or scammers. Not to mention some of the cultist behavior is a turn off.
But in 2017 we were going to 250k. At 20k I was starting to be suspect. At 17k I sold.
Thought ok I am getting the hang of this. Then i said I can macro ChART Bitcoin with the best of them. And I obviously can. As I called the first top to a T. But then I was like I am tired of the cum rockets stealing the glory here. And just got totally negative on the space.
Because that was the whole story. Limited supply yada yada. But how can you claim that when the Total 2 (ALTCOIN) market cap is as large as the BTC market cap. So without the shitcoin show. Bitcoin would already be at 250k like we all have been anticipating. Instead it just breached 100k.
So Bitcoiners have overtly been diluted by 50% whether they like to admit it or not.
With that being said. From a fundamental and technical perspective. Bitcoin and the shitcoin show are here to stay. Just as penny stocks trade along side of valid companies so shall it be in Crypto.
But evaluating the long term aspects of Bitcoin. These outlandish claims of billion dollar bitcoin and million dollar this and that. It's scammy pump talk... I think over the next 27 halvings Bitcoin will compete with Gold and Silver at this point for the foreseeable future. But market caps matter and have to make sense.
Global GDP is 100 trillion!
Gold for instance at 18 trillion now. That is 18% of Global GDP... For Bitcoin to trade for a billon dollars a coin. That would be 2.2 QUADTRILLION! So Bitcoin will trade at 22 X Global GDP! You see the problem with the math here?
The GLOBAL STOCK MARKET VALUE IS 55 TRILLION!!!! 55% of global GDP!
People talking about Gold tripling from here are either ignorant and haven't thought this through, or scam artists themselves in my opinion.
So as I type this message Bitcoin is around 1.9% Global GDP...
Silver 1.7%...
These two individual asset classes are the skinniest of the bunch.
I DO NOT SEE GOLD TRILPING OR EVEN DOUBLING FROM HERE TO MATCH THE STOCK GLOBAL MARKET!
I DO NOT SEE THE STOCK MARKET TRIPLING FROM HERE TP BE WORTH MORE THAN IT PRODUCES!!!
I do think that over the next 5 decades or so Bitcoin will ebb and flow through cycles that will eventually see it trade somewhere around half of what Gold is (10% of GDP) and maybe after 100 years flip Gold. So if you are 20 you may see that happen. But until then 4 year cycles taking out 50k chunks of that price and retracing as profit taking is taking place.
I also see Silver as it is needed in the manufacturing of modern technology as a skinny asset class that will probably eventually over the same 5 decades or so be worth 5 or 6% of Global GDP. And yes population is growing etc. and so on but all we have is todays evaluations.
So IMHO what are the two best assets to DCA for the next 30 years?
Silver and BTC...
But I will still add some Gold, and S&P ETF...
I am done with the all in and all or nothing approach. The only one way mindset...
I am an Saver/Investor/Positional Trader/Swing Trader/ & Day Trader...
I enjoy all aspects of the investing world.
That is diversification as much as asset classes.
Multiple ways to generate wealth in the markets.
Taxes with BTC are confusing to say the least. Same with Physical Gold and Silver, not to mention you get punished as a collector. So never sell! Pass them on!
So save cash!
Stack Gold and Silver indefinitely...
Stack BTC indefinitely...
Stack an S&P ETF or mutual fund indefinitely...
Positional Trade Dividend Stocks... (medium size)
Swing trade speculative stocks... (small size)
Day trade high volume mega cap stocks... (small to medium size)
Large and Supersized plays kills financial situations just as it does in your diet.
NEVER OVERTRADE OR OVERSIZE!
The less you trade the more you make.
And remember when trading the BEST LOSER WINS!
LOSE SMALL, BREAK EVEN, WIN SMALL, WIN BIG...
This is the only way!!!
Fear instead of hope. Hope instead of fear...
Most get this backasswards.
So onto this ChART...
The 200 week SMA is the key here. It should stay right around that angle from here on out. Spreading from it pulling it up and coming back to test it once it gets to far away.
I think a 20% correction to about 80k in early spring and a 2025 top around 130k is in play. The correcting to around 50k in 2026-27... Then by 2030-32 after the next halving maybe around 170k. Then rinse and repeat. Which is why a DCA approach with this asset is the most logical emotionless approach with this asset. $20-$100-$500 a week. I don't know your budget. But that is what I will be doing from here on out with Bitcoin. Because I think it would be a dereliction of duty to any portfolio to not be doing so at this point.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year Traders
