July 11 Macroeconomic Data Outlook: U.S. June unadjusted CPI monthly/annual rate!
Recommended reading: ★★★★
The US June unadjusted CPI annual rate/monthly rate, data provided by the US Bureau of Labor, is a consumer price index calculated based on the price changes of daily necessities and labor. It is also one of the important indicators for measuring US economic inflation.
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Data weight: ★★★★ (Weight ratio may be weakened by 1★ this week)
Data content: Annual rate: previous value 3.3% expected 3.1%, monthly rate: previous value 0.00% expected 0.1%
Data time: 20:30, July 11, 2024 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
Whether the published figures are in line with expectations and compared with previous values will directly reflect some of the inflation conditions in the United States in June. At the same time, the expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024, especially the probability of a rate cut in September, will be re-evaluated and adjusted.
Annual Percentage:
The data was greater than expected and greater than the previous value. Inflation rebounded rapidly, expectations for rate cuts were significantly reduced, and the crypto market fell sharply due to major negative factors.
The data was greater than expected and equal to the previous value. Inflation remained stubborn and resilient. Expectations for rate cuts were greatly reduced, which was bearish and the crypto market fell.
The data was greater than expected and lower than the previous value. Inflation was stubborn and exceeded expectations. Expectations for rate cuts were lowered, which was bearish and the crypto market fell.
The data was in line with expectations and lower than the previous value. Inflation was in line with expectations and fell, which helped expectations of a rate cut. This was positive. The crypto market rose slightly and then turned sideways, and there may be no changes after the data. Wait for the U.S. stocks.
The data was lower than expected and lower than the previous estimate. Inflation accelerated and the decline exceeded expectations. This is a good thing. The crypto market rose. It is very likely that the data effect will be delayed, and other reactions from the U.S. stock market.
The data was significantly lower than expected and lower than the previous estimate. Inflation accelerated its decline beyond expectations, which means the Fed's 2% target may be achieved faster. This greatly increased expectations for a rate cut in September. This is good news, and the crypto market is rising. It is still possible that we will have to wait for the U.S. stock market to react.
Monthly rate:
The monthly rate weight is lower than the annual rate weight, unless the published value is significantly different from expectations. At present, the monthly rate is close to 0, and the probability of a negative value is extremely small. The possibility of a significant change in data is a sudden increase in the monthly rate. If the monthly rate rebounds sharply, it will have a negative effect on the risk market.
If the monthly rate is announced as 0, it means that inflation continues to weaken, which is good for the market, but the impact of the published annual rate should be considered.
If the monthly rate is announced as 0.1, it means a short-term rebound in inflation, which is bearish for the market, provided that the annual rate is used as a reference.
Personal expectations:
The monthly CPI rate may be announced at 0.1%, which is in line with expectations. Short-term inflation has rebounded slightly.
The annual CPI rate is likely to be announced as 3.2% with a small probability of 3.1%. Short-term inflation may rebound, higher than originally expected.
The reason is that the rise in domestic and international crude oil prices in June may lead to a short-term rebound in CPI. At the same time, the employment data in June is still good. Although wages have decreased, they are still not enough, and wages are still one of the biggest obstacles to inflation.
Summarize:
As for the current CPI data, it actually has not had much effect on the adjustment of interest rate cut expectations for the time being. In other words, the small positive impact of CPI may not bring much help to the crypto market.
Powell mentioned the issues of inflation and employment many times in his speeches last week and this week. The possibility that a single data can drive a rate cut has been continuously reduced, unless it is "unexpected" data.
In other words, unless CPI is significantly lower than expectations and previous values in the short term and inflation accelerates its decline, it will bring more possibilities to the market. Otherwise, the probability of a rate cut in September is still around 70%, and this probability of a rate cut currently helps little for the market's bullish sentiment.
Wait for the data to be released later!
#BTC走勢分析 #CPI数据将于今晚8点半公布 $BTC
