Once Trump takes office, US-led globalization will be forced to become "virtual", and "regional integration" may be the inevitable path in the future!
The reason why Trump failed last time was not only because his predecessor left many "pitfalls", but also because Trump's own policies were not friendly to some overseas expansion capital outside the United States.
In fact, if we carefully examine the policy system announced by Trump, it is obvious that he hopes that the United States can develop its real industry again and become a comprehensive financial and industrialized country, rather than relying entirely on finance as the economic pillar as it currently does.
At the same time, Trump's policy is more about retracting the United States' global tentacles. Whether it is giving back or shrinking, it is actually a better choice for "self-innovation" and development.
In fact, not only "foreigners", but even Americans themselves clearly understand that the United States is already facing an aging period. If left unchecked, it will sooner or later face the "end of life." If major reforms or policies emerge at this time, it can forcibly extend the life of the United States and even achieve the concept of "rejuvenation."
In Trump's view, this kind of reform is a semi-blockade or even a blockade of itself, because the North American continent can be completely self-sufficient, and due to its small population, it can even achieve a perfect internal circulation.
If Trump takes office and really does this, or guides the United States in this direction in the future, then the first thing the United States will do is to shrink its overseas tentacles. It may not be a one-time withdrawal, but a gradual withdrawal, whether it is overseas investment or deployment. Of course, the withdrawal will be accompanied by not only tentacles, but also the "flesh and blood" plundered.
This kind of contraction can be seen as being like the "vampires" in Western movies and TV dramas, who maintain their own strength and youthful vitality through the blood of "others". However, this same contraction will also break the globalization that the United States previously established. Similarly, the tentacles of contraction will be a loss or potential crisis for capital with a high proportion of overseas investment, so some "Americans" do not want Trump to come to power.
Back to global integration, everyone knows its original purpose, but once it is broken according to Trump's idea, it will inevitably need to form another alternative group, such as regional integration.
The United States, Canada, and Mexico have established the "US-Canada-Mexico" free trade zone, the predecessor of which is NAFTA. The time when NAFTA came out was exactly the same year that GATT was transformed into the WTO, which was also 1994, thus giving rise to the dollar-based free trade zone. And, across the ocean in Europe, the European Community was transformed into the European Union.
In fact, before the emergence of the ideology of globalization, the United States and Europe had already completed their own regional integration. Globalization is the re-union between regions to expand global dominance.
However, the epidemic over the past few years has caused serious disruptions to the global industrial chain and the industrial layout has become ineffective. At this time, people have understood that the idealized global layout will fail once faced with this "disaster" that affects all mankind.
Considering that the United States' current global dominance is gradually weakening, its allies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region have their own development problems and their hematopoietic function has deteriorated, making them unable to supply large amounts of blood to the United States. Forcible plundering of the United States also encounters resistance, both economically and by force. So at this time, Trump once again proposed a similar policy to that of four years ago, but fewer people opposed it. This is the change in capital and people's consciousness under a sense of crisis.
So when the top leaders, capital, and people in rights organizations no longer have high expectations for globalization, history may reverse, and regional integration will once again appear before everyone, followed by regional integration and continuous development. In the future, regional integration will encounter bottlenecks, and then a new round of globalization will emerge.
I just don’t know if the leader of global integration then is the same person as now! ?
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