Brothers, let me remind you,

I don’t object to everyone asking questions about various tokens in the comment area, and I will also actively express my opinions.
But please make it clear in the future.

Most people ask, Uncle Cat: How about XXX tokens, how about that one,

But I really want to tell you that many tokens are good in themselves, but if you buy them in the wrong place, no matter how good the tokens are, they will be scolded.

Well, Bitcoin, if your current position cost is around 73,000, I guess you are also flustered.

So what this article wants to express is that I hope you will ask questions in the future and tell me your thoughts, for example, how is this token, how much does it cost me, should I continue to take it, and where should I stop the loss and cover my position. Or Uncle Cat: How about XXX tokens? Can a position be opened at this position?

If you let me know your situation clearly, I can answer it. Just like the current Bitcoin, if the profit cycle is a bull market, you can buy it casually. If you want to make a profit within half a year, then I advise you to wait. wait. Right, different operating methods in different situations.

I hope you can understand and comment in more detail later. This also facilitates communication.
#BTC

Comparison of weekend data: Before the interest rate meeting, funds flowed in at an accelerated pace, and the situation was optimistic. After the interest rate meeting, did funds enter the market directly? Or wait for a decline?

Let's compare Saturday's data with Friday's. The market value increased, the trading volume increased, and the proportion of #BTC☀ increased again.

Although the proportion of copycats did not increase, the activity was high on weekends, and the increase in trading volume completely accounted for today's increase.

Focus on funds, US funds data updated today:

The market value of stablecoins on the market increased by 600 million during the day, and currently remains at 172.1 billion.

#USDT: Official website data is 118.581 billion, an increase of 255 million compared to yesterday, and the trading volume increased by 54%. Funds were extremely active on weekends. The single-day inflow is the largest value this week.

#USDC: Official website data, as of September 12 (this Thursday), the single-week fund increase reached 500 million, which is basically the largest single-week increase since late August.

At the same time, the data website shows that today's market value increased by 357 million and the transaction volume increased by 1.216 billion. Referring to the data as of Thursday, we can see that the funds in the US are still flowing in, and the inflow rate is increasing.

Summary:

Before the interest rate meeting, we noticed that funds flowed into the market in large quantities over the weekend. This is a good thing. At least they think that the interest rate cut is an opportunity for funds.

However, what I am more puzzled about is that if the interest rate will not fall after the interest rate cut, will these large amounts of deposited funds choose to buy directly? Or continue to wait for deposits? Or go to the derivatives market?

What answer will the funds give us next week? I think this will be very interesting.
#BTC☀ $BTC

The dishes have been upgraded today, you guys eat first!

Take a look at the #BTC☀ market over the weekend, and share my thoughts on this "entertainment" short order.

Current BTC trend:

Currently, BTC has completely stood firm on the upper track of the daily line and maintained a small fluctuation. At the same time, it has also broken through the daily MA50 resistance level near 60,100.

Of course, it is currently in the low liquidity stage of the weekend, and the fluctuation range at this time may not be stable enough.

My thoughts:

In the afternoon, a friend asked me where to put the stop loss. In fact, I didn't think about it at the time.

In fact, the views of last week were basically to stand firm on the upper track of the daily line, and then continue to see 63,000 upwards. This 60,100 short order is also entertainment. There was no breakthrough before going to bed last night, so I posted a message saying that it would be a fuel. Sure enough, I saw it successfully connected in the morning, and 60,000 was successfully broken through.

At present, this order does not plan to stop profit for the time being. The position itself is not large, and the profit and loss are not much. At present, I will temporarily stop loss at the position of the small previous high of the daily line, near 61,650.

If the price continues to rebound to this position, it means that there is still momentum for the price to rise. I will see 62,800 or even 63,000 above.

Will I continue to open short positions in the future?

The key is to look at the performance on Monday. The current bullish sentiment in the market is still betting on the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the interest rate meeting next week. We have to wait and see whether there are other comments or data to support a 50 basis point interest rate cut from the weekend to next week.

Also pay attention to the sentiment from the early morning of the weekend to Monday. If the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut for the first time is not greatly increased, then I may place a short order again at a high level for testing.

Note: Currently around 63,000-64,000, the upper resistance level of the daily and weekly lines, MA120 MA200 are all at this position, so it is very critical for the price to break through this position.

I also need to remind you that I am not a die-hard bull or die-short. The main reason for the high position is that I find that the recent market momentum is not sufficient. At the same time, I see that the funds deposited in the market are accumulating, but there is indeed no large-scale buying transaction, so I try to test it by shorting.

If the market wasn't so cold, I wouldn't be so bored as to open a contract
😅

Look, isn't the "teacher" who always makes money here! (Although it was still a floating loss just now) 😂😂

The key point is still to look at the fuel. Sure enough, it successfully broke through 60,000. Please call me "Fuel Master" next time

Entertainment order, don't take it seriously.

Currently facing the interest rate meeting next week, the market is quite controversial about the interest rate cut of 25 or 50. I opened a small position for entertainment, everyone can have fun.
#BTC☀ $BTC

#BTC☀ Why did it fall back when it encountered no resistance? Why not try harder to reach 60,000?
Don't worry, I'll place a short order at 60,000 as fuel to let the market rush again.
The next focus is the closing and after-hours of the US stock market. Wait for the results!
$BTC

MicroStrategy purchased 18,300 #BTC☀ again, worth $1.11 billion. Many people regard it as an increase in institutional holdings and full confidence in the market.

The result may not be as optimistic as everyone thinks.

1. BTC worth $111 million, the average price is $60,655 per coin, and this price last appeared on August 29. If the purchase time is calculated according to the moving average, MicroStrategy’s purchase is not actually the current time. It may be that the previous increase in holdings is only revealed now. According to this logic, this news has nothing to do with the current attitude towards the market.

2. MicroStrategy’s basic large-scale holding of BTC is already a routine, and the company’s holding method may be different from that of most traders. The holding period is longer, the allocation ability is better, and the perspective is longer. Therefore, if the perspective is extended to 10 years, 60,000 or 70,000 may be a lower price. However, this does not mean that 60,000 or 70,000 is the best price for us ordinary traders. It depends on the individual holding period.

3. MicroStrategy is increasingly tied to BTC. It can be said that most of the valuation of MicroStrategy's stock price comes from BTC, so MicroStrategy has no reason to short its main support. Therefore, continuously increasing holdings is the most correct choice, and there is no second choice.

In general, we should look at the news that MicroStrategy has increased its holdings again rationally and objectively. Don't just follow the trend of others shouting retail investors panic and institutions actively buying.
Before buying, you should consider whether your holding period, fund allocation ability and perspective can be long-term. If it is long enough, you can follow the pace of the institution, but if you just want to hold a short-term position for 3-5 years, or even some people gamble on shorter fluctuations, you should be more cautious.

I never think that selling at the highest and buying at the lowest can be 100% judged. Only what suits you is the best.

The latest CME swap rate shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September remains above 50%, but it should be noted that a 50 basis point rate cut has soared to 41% again.

Although a 25 basis point rate cut is currently the main expectation, the market has not given up the game of a 50 basis point rate cut.

At present, the expectation for this rate cut is still controversial. Last week's employment data caused great controversy among US traders and economists on the extent of the rate cut.

Although the subjective expectation of 25 has been maintained for a long time this week, today Friday, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has soared again, which has once again cast a veil of mystery over next week's interest rate meeting.

This weekend, until the time of the interest rate meeting next week, economic data, as well as the speeches of many economists and traders, may cause the market to have a chaotic mode of expectations.

Will the Fed keep the market expecting a rate cut in the mixed round? Or adjust expectations in advance before making interest rate decisions?

As a "master of expectation management", I don't think he should make the market so chaotic, right?
#BTC☀ $BTC

Gold and long-term U.S. bonds continue to rise, constantly eroding the limited liquidity before the rate cut.
It seems that it will be more difficult for U.S. stocks to maintain their gains tonight. The pre-market performance of stock index futures is still optimistic. It depends on whether the optimism can continue after the opening.
#BTC☀ $BTC

Interestingly, a #CKB actually appeared in the same currency with different prices in major exchanges.

What is going on? Is there a large price difference due to insufficient spot liquidity?

I saw that the funding rate of BN contract CKB is minus 3, which is already the highest rate. This is really interesting.

A lot of people are shorting CKB. If this explodes, it will be fun!
$CKB

Dry rice, dry rice, this is the only meal today, I have to eat enough!
It’s raining in Shenzhen, making me want to eat fish [doge][doge]

Interpretation of today's market data: Alas, the data is not as optimistic as the market. After reading the data, I have even less confidence in the breakthrough!

As the title says, I looked at today's market data and I am a little less confident.

Although the market value has maintained an increase, the trading volume has obviously decreased, and the market heat and liquidity have deteriorated. Although the decline is not much, as a normal trading day on Friday, this decline has almost dropped to the level of Saturday.

The only optimistic thing is that the copycat is still relatively active, but how long can it last? It depends on the face of #BTC

Record funds:

The market value of stablecoins on the market has increased by 100 million, currently 171.5 billion,

USDT: The official website data is 118.326 billion, which is 51 million less than yesterday, and the trading volume has decreased by 40%. Asian and European funds have net outflows for the first time this week.

USDC: The data website shows that the market value has increased by 45 million and the trading volume has decreased by 18%. Let's be optimistic about the net inflow of funds. The official website will update the data tomorrow.

Summary:

Although I am still optimistic about the market, I think there will be a breakthrough to drive the market, but looking at the market data, it is indeed a bit sluggish.

Looking at the data alone, it seems that before the interest rate meeting next week, it will not be too optimistic. The market's attention has obviously decreased on normal trading days.

Let's look at the performance of US stocks tonight. At present, US stocks are still rising slightly before the market opens, but the focus is still on the situation in the second half.

#BTC☀ $BTC

#BTC☀ The hourly level tested the daily resistance level 6 times from last night to early morning, but failed to break through and then fell back slightly to stabilize.

This is the second attempt to break through this week at the daily level. I look forward to the third one tonight.

If the breakthrough cannot be completed tonight, it can only fluctuate and wear people out until the interest rate meeting next week. During this period, the bulls will gradually exhaust and cause the market to fluctuate and fall.

# US stocks closed up in the early morning, which is still very good, but BTC is slightly insufficient. Short-term funds are more likely to rush into gold, US stocks, and US bonds. Indeed, there is still very little funds that BTC can eat now.

The problem facing BTC now is still that if it does not break through, the attention will decrease. After the breakthrough, whether the attention supports the funds to continue to push up the price.

If you want to be optimistic, the continuous attempts to break through have also consumed a lot of resistance selling pressure, which will lay a certain foundation for the third breakthrough.

The sentiment in the Asian market is still not very good and remains sluggish.

Let's continue to wait for tonight. I won't say more. I'm going to climb the stairs and come back to update today's market content.
$BTC

XAU hits a new all-time high, 10-year US Treasury yields rise slightly, prices fall,
Market sentiment gradually returns to normal rate cut expectations - the dollar is worried about depreciation and flows into gold, while the recent decline in US Treasury yields has reduced demand for US Treasury bonds, resulting in a slight increase in short-term US Treasury yields.
Five days before the interest rate meeting, the market seems to have temporarily returned to its normal trend before the rate cut, but the short-term return to normal sentiment is not friendly to the risk market. Although it cannot be said that short-term funds are hedging, subconsciously, traders still begin to pay attention to the market and reduce their current enthusiasm for buying.
Recently, the mutual flow of funds between XAU and US Treasury bonds is relatively obvious, and today's trading has also entered the second half.
The most important thing in the early morning is that US stocks can close higher, and #BTC☀ can test resistance again, otherwise this shock and decline sentiment may continue until the 18th of next week.
Currently, the CME Bitcoin futures price maintains a negative premium of 270 points to the spot price. The long position in the futures market has obviously declined. Taking advantage of the poor market liquidity, will the game in the derivatives market try to push up the BTC spot price in the short term?
$BTC

To be honest, #BTC☀ In the first half, the hourly line was moving like this, which was really ugly.

It made me a little worried that the breakthrough power was insufficient.

There is not much time left for BTC to break through!
$BTC

Since the current market rhythm is basically locked - a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week, everyone seems to be no longer interested in economic data in the short term, and so am I.

The data ignored tonight are the number of initial unemployment claims and PPI data for the week.

The number of initial unemployment claims for the week was 230,000, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value. It was the first data increase in the past three weeks, and the labor market was cooling down. This data is more in line with the gradual slowdown of the US economy.

The PPI producer price index recorded an annual rate of 1.7%, lower than expected and the previous value. At the same time, the data for July was revised down, with a monthly rate of 0.2%, higher than expected by 0.1% and higher than the previous value of 0%.

The data shows that the year-on-year growth of the producer price index slowed down, and the month-on-month growth increased slightly. The data basically confirmed yesterday's CPI data.

Originally, CPI data was closely related to PPI data and was also an important data released in the same week.

However, since the focus of both the Federal Reserve and the market has shifted from inflation to employment, and the expectation of the first interest rate cut is currently locked at 25 basis points, the market's attention to this data has dropped significantly.

Looking at the performance of CPI last night, the attention was also very low. Favorable data could not attract market attention, while unfavorable data would cause concerns.

It seems that before the interest rate cut, only if there is a possibility that the first interest rate cut will be increased to 50 basis points without causing an economic recession can it attract market attention.

#BTC☀ $BTC