薛定谔的猫叔
@Maoshu_shuobi
一个区块链的从业者，一个Web3的学习者，一个在努力奔跑追逐梦想中年男人。一个擅长阴谋论的作者，自认为没有什么牛可以吹的，原创与不断的学习能力也许是我的些许的自豪。——猫叔
同时经营账号，微博，百家号，知乎，公众号，快手！ 认准猫叔，童叟无欺！
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One year ago, Binance Square successfully reached 16.2K fans.
One year later, the fans successfully increased from 16.2K to 16K.
After careful consideration, this account has been temporarily suspended and will not be updated in the future.
When to resume, we will see when the time is right!
Fans, take care and look forward to seeing you in the future!
One year later, the fans successfully increased from 16.2K to 16K.
After careful consideration, this account has been temporarily suspended and will not be updated in the future.
When to resume, we will see when the time is right!
Fans, take care and look forward to seeing you in the future!
See original
Good article, worth reading
星辰队长
--
dappOS intent layer reform is coming, can it perfectly solve the decentralized on-chain solution?
Crypto has grown to this day, and the early decentralized core has gradually been forgotten. With the approval of the BTC ETF and the gradual involvement of traditional financial capital in the Crypto market, the market is increasingly leaning towards centralization and compliance. However, decentralization has not been abandoned; it has temporarily been forgotten due to certain drawbacks.
In previous decentralized on-chain transactions, the biggest drawback traders encountered, apart from the basic high on-chain GAS fees, slower data transmission speed, and poor on-chain throughput, is actually another core issue caused by insufficient on-chain liquidity. When there is insufficient liquidity for on-chain transactions, it can prevent traders from quickly completing transactions in the short term, especially during rapid trading. Due to the lack of liquidity, it often misses the best buy and sell points, particularly for large capital high-net-worth users. Insufficient liquidity can lead to significant price fluctuations in asset trading, even resulting in unnecessary losses.
In previous decentralized on-chain transactions, the biggest drawback traders encountered, apart from the basic high on-chain GAS fees, slower data transmission speed, and poor on-chain throughput, is actually another core issue caused by insufficient on-chain liquidity. When there is insufficient liquidity for on-chain transactions, it can prevent traders from quickly completing transactions in the short term, especially during rapid trading. Due to the lack of liquidity, it often misses the best buy and sell points, particularly for large capital high-net-worth users. Insufficient liquidity can lead to significant price fluctuations in asset trading, even resulting in unnecessary losses.
See original
Switching to SOL SG, my computer and mobile phone are basically out of battery.
Let me briefly talk about the current market sentiment. The current market sentiment is still continuing the excitement brought by the 50 basis point interest rate cut in the early morning. However, whether this will start the main upward trend or just because of emotional rebound,
The market is naturally emotionally guided, and we still have to wait until next Monday to see the natural trend. We can be optimistic about the future market, but we still don’t blindly go all in.
#BTC☀ $BTC
Let me briefly talk about the current market sentiment. The current market sentiment is still continuing the excitement brought by the 50 basis point interest rate cut in the early morning. However, whether this will start the main upward trend or just because of emotional rebound,
The market is naturally emotionally guided, and we still have to wait until next Monday to see the natural trend. We can be optimistic about the future market, but we still don’t blindly go all in.
#BTC☀ $BTC
See original
Adjust the interpretation of the dot plot in the early morning. The spirit is indeed poor in the early morning, and the expression is somewhat inaccurate.
In the dot plot in the early morning, many FOMC votes believe that there is still an expectation of a 50-point rate cut in the rest of 2024.
According to the current plan, there is a possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December.
The current market situation is basically in line with the expectations written last night. The rate cut is 50 basis points, there is a decline, and then it stabilizes. However, I think the current market reaction is not over yet. The market is still in an optimistic attitude at the beginning of a 50 basis point rate cut.
But how to go after that depends on the situation next Monday.
The start of the rate cut cycle brings more positive emotional attitudes, but in fact, the liquidity that many people are concerned about has increased significantly. It is still not optimistic enough at present and needs to wait.
#BTC☀ $BTC
In the dot plot in the early morning, many FOMC votes believe that there is still an expectation of a 50-point rate cut in the rest of 2024.
According to the current plan, there is a possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December.
The current market situation is basically in line with the expectations written last night. The rate cut is 50 basis points, there is a decline, and then it stabilizes. However, I think the current market reaction is not over yet. The market is still in an optimistic attitude at the beginning of a 50 basis point rate cut.
But how to go after that depends on the situation next Monday.
The start of the rate cut cycle brings more positive emotional attitudes, but in fact, the liquidity that many people are concerned about has increased significantly. It is still not optimistic enough at present and needs to wait.
#BTC☀ $BTC
See original
Another busy day has begun. I didn’t sleep well, so I have a pair of dark circles under my eyes!
See original
I can't stand it anymore, I'll update this dot plot and go to sleep.
According to the latest dot plot,
1. Most FOMC votes believe that in 2024, the interest rate will remain between 5% and 5.25%, which is the current interest rate. The dot plot predicts that there may be no subsequent interest rate cut plan in 2024.
2. The interest rate in 2025 will remain between 3.75% and 4.25%, and the interest rate cut plan for 25 years is about 100 basis points.
3. In 2026, the interest rate will further drop to the range of 2.75%-3.25, and the interest rate will be cut again by 100 basis points in 26 years.
4. In 2027, the interest rate will be maintained at around 2.75%-3%.
5. The long-term interest rate target is around 2.5%-3%.
To be honest, this period's dot plot is not too optimistic. If the current dot plot is expected, the first interest rate cut of 50 basis points in September will be the only interest rate cut in 2024, and the Fed's interest rate cut plan will be maintained until about 26 years, and the entire 25 years will still be in a high interest rate environment.
There was a 50 basis point interest rate cut before, and the dot plot did not have a subsequent interest rate cut plan in 2024. It really feels a bit deliberately hawkish.
In order to prevent the market from expecting a faster interest rate cut by the Fed, it directly relied on the dot plot to be hawkish and affect market expectations. At the same time, it is also in Xuancheng. Although I have entered the dollar cycle, I still have to continue to maintain high interest rates for a long time.
Judging from the current performance, I think it is a bit strong on the outside and weak on the inside, and it is deliberately hawkish.
As for the subsequent interest rate cut plan, this period's dot plot is not absolute. After all, there have been many reversals of dot plot expectations this year. Although the dot plot shows that there is no subsequent interest rate cut plan this year, the market will not so easily give up the expectation of a rate cut in November and December.
#BTC☀ $BTC
According to the latest dot plot,
1. Most FOMC votes believe that in 2024, the interest rate will remain between 5% and 5.25%, which is the current interest rate. The dot plot predicts that there may be no subsequent interest rate cut plan in 2024.
2. The interest rate in 2025 will remain between 3.75% and 4.25%, and the interest rate cut plan for 25 years is about 100 basis points.
3. In 2026, the interest rate will further drop to the range of 2.75%-3.25, and the interest rate will be cut again by 100 basis points in 26 years.
4. In 2027, the interest rate will be maintained at around 2.75%-3%.
5. The long-term interest rate target is around 2.5%-3%.
To be honest, this period's dot plot is not too optimistic. If the current dot plot is expected, the first interest rate cut of 50 basis points in September will be the only interest rate cut in 2024, and the Fed's interest rate cut plan will be maintained until about 26 years, and the entire 25 years will still be in a high interest rate environment.
There was a 50 basis point interest rate cut before, and the dot plot did not have a subsequent interest rate cut plan in 2024. It really feels a bit deliberately hawkish.
In order to prevent the market from expecting a faster interest rate cut by the Fed, it directly relied on the dot plot to be hawkish and affect market expectations. At the same time, it is also in Xuancheng. Although I have entered the dollar cycle, I still have to continue to maintain high interest rates for a long time.
Judging from the current performance, I think it is a bit strong on the outside and weak on the inside, and it is deliberately hawkish.
As for the subsequent interest rate cut plan, this period's dot plot is not absolute. After all, there have been many reversals of dot plot expectations this year. Although the dot plot shows that there is no subsequent interest rate cut plan this year, the market will not so easily give up the expectation of a rate cut in November and December.
#BTC☀ $BTC
See original
Bao is speaking, but I can't stand it anymore, so I won't interpret it at the same time.
So far, he has basically explained the first interest rate cut of 50 basis points in a relatively mild tone, which is to boost the strong momentum of the economy.
However, judging from the current future trend of inflation, there will be no QE before 2025, and the policy will still be loose and the action will be tightened.
I think it's better to ignore this automatically. This is Bao lowering the market's expectations for QE. Generally speaking, when the interest rate cut cycle starts, the market will actively wait for the Fed's QE action, which will lead to the overheating of the risk market. At this time, it is appropriate to use "expectation management" to reduce the confidence in short-term QE so as not to overheat the risk market.
So far, it is basically understood that the theme of Bao's speech this time is "maintaining stability". After all, the first interest rate cut is 50 basis points. He wants to come out to stabilize the market and not trigger bad expectations of interest rate cuts.
I guess there will not be many key points in the speech tonight, and it will be the same as the "old chef".
Although the interest rate cut of 50 basis points has been implemented, I still think that this drastic measure of the first interest rate cut of 50 basis points may not be as safe as it seems. (This is just my personal expectation, not bearish)
#BTC☀ $BTC
So far, he has basically explained the first interest rate cut of 50 basis points in a relatively mild tone, which is to boost the strong momentum of the economy.
However, judging from the current future trend of inflation, there will be no QE before 2025, and the policy will still be loose and the action will be tightened.
I think it's better to ignore this automatically. This is Bao lowering the market's expectations for QE. Generally speaking, when the interest rate cut cycle starts, the market will actively wait for the Fed's QE action, which will lead to the overheating of the risk market. At this time, it is appropriate to use "expectation management" to reduce the confidence in short-term QE so as not to overheat the risk market.
So far, it is basically understood that the theme of Bao's speech this time is "maintaining stability". After all, the first interest rate cut is 50 basis points. He wants to come out to stabilize the market and not trigger bad expectations of interest rate cuts.
I guess there will not be many key points in the speech tonight, and it will be the same as the "old chef".
Although the interest rate cut of 50 basis points has been implemented, I still think that this drastic measure of the first interest rate cut of 50 basis points may not be as safe as it seems. (This is just my personal expectation, not bearish)
#BTC☀ $BTC
See original
I took a detailed look at the announcement of the Fed's interest rate meeting:
The first interest rate cut was 50 basis points. If the previous dot plot is followed, the interest rate cut for the whole year of 2024 will be 100 basis points, that is to say, there may be two consecutive interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in November and December.
Of course, this is the expectation of the last dot plot. The dot plot has not been released yet, so we have to wait.
At the same time, the announcement mentioned that in order to continue to consolidate 2% inflation, although the Fed has started a rate cut cycle, it will continue to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds, agency bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities.
To put it bluntly, it is to cut interest rates but not to release water, and it is still shrinking the balance sheet. The Fed will continue to maintain a loose policy and tightening action strategy.
After the announcement of the interest rate resolution, the market volatility is still not large. It is currently waiting for the update of the dot plot and Powell's speech later.
In this speech, the market hopes to get more information about this year's interest rate cut plan, and also hopes to get an accurate balance sheet reduction plan.
#BTC☀ $BTC
The first interest rate cut was 50 basis points. If the previous dot plot is followed, the interest rate cut for the whole year of 2024 will be 100 basis points, that is to say, there may be two consecutive interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in November and December.
Of course, this is the expectation of the last dot plot. The dot plot has not been released yet, so we have to wait.
At the same time, the announcement mentioned that in order to continue to consolidate 2% inflation, although the Fed has started a rate cut cycle, it will continue to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds, agency bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities.
To put it bluntly, it is to cut interest rates but not to release water, and it is still shrinking the balance sheet. The Fed will continue to maintain a loose policy and tightening action strategy.
After the announcement of the interest rate resolution, the market volatility is still not large. It is currently waiting for the update of the dot plot and Powell's speech later.
In this speech, the market hopes to get more information about this year's interest rate cut plan, and also hopes to get an accurate balance sheet reduction plan.
#BTC☀ $BTC
See original
As expected, the first rate cut reached 50 basis points, and the Federal Reserve officially started the rate cut cycle!
#token2049 $BTC
#token2049 $BTC
薛定谔的猫叔
--
Personal expectations of market fluctuations brought about by tonight's interest rate meeting (only personal expectations, not for trading reference)
At present, the highest probability of the market is still a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
According to previous management, Nick's remarks during the Fed's silent period often guide market expectations on behalf of the Fed, so it can be said that the market expects the first 50 basis point interest rate cut.
Impact:
A 50 basis point interest rate cut is in line with expectations. In the short term, the US stock market #BTC☀ sentiment rises, and then triggers a Sell the news decline. The decline may be large, but the short-term correction of the risk market is inevitable. Then it will rebound again, and the rebound time is currently difficult to predict.
A 25 basis point interest rate cut is not in line with expectations. In the short term, the US stock market BTC directly fell, which is not in line with expectations. Combined with the market decline, the market may have greater doubts about the subsequent US economy. The market needs to adjust its sentiment and the Fed will start to digest the rebound after sorting out expectations.
Note:
This is a preliminary expectation of the interest rate meeting results, but there are still many important factors affecting this interest rate meeting.
Powell's speech after the interest rate meeting, the release of the Fed's third dot plot. How Powell explains the interest rate results, and the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut plan brought about by the dot plot will have a great impact on the short-term market trend.
After the first interest rate cut, the main topic of macro market sentiment is the overall magnitude, speed and frequency of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year.
At the same time, more economic data of all sizes after the interest rate cut may trigger the market's unexpected associations, and see how the Fed balances market expectations.
$BTC
At present, the highest probability of the market is still a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
According to previous management, Nick's remarks during the Fed's silent period often guide market expectations on behalf of the Fed, so it can be said that the market expects the first 50 basis point interest rate cut.
Impact:
A 50 basis point interest rate cut is in line with expectations. In the short term, the US stock market #BTC☀ sentiment rises, and then triggers a Sell the news decline. The decline may be large, but the short-term correction of the risk market is inevitable. Then it will rebound again, and the rebound time is currently difficult to predict.
A 25 basis point interest rate cut is not in line with expectations. In the short term, the US stock market BTC directly fell, which is not in line with expectations. Combined with the market decline, the market may have greater doubts about the subsequent US economy. The market needs to adjust its sentiment and the Fed will start to digest the rebound after sorting out expectations.
Note:
This is a preliminary expectation of the interest rate meeting results, but there are still many important factors affecting this interest rate meeting.
Powell's speech after the interest rate meeting, the release of the Fed's third dot plot. How Powell explains the interest rate results, and the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut plan brought about by the dot plot will have a great impact on the short-term market trend.
After the first interest rate cut, the main topic of macro market sentiment is the overall magnitude, speed and frequency of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year.
At the same time, more economic data of all sizes after the interest rate cut may trigger the market's unexpected associations, and see how the Fed balances market expectations.
$BTC
See original
Record the data before the interest rate meeting: #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 The altcoins are more nervous, and Asian funds continue to flow in. Is it a bottom-fishing or a high-chasing?
Before the interest rate meeting, record the data quickly. Because I don’t have yesterday’s market data, I won’t compare it.
However, from the simple data, the interest rate meeting of the altcoins and ETH is more tense, the market value has fallen, the trading volume has dropped, and the status of #BTC☀ is still good.
Focus on the funds again:
The stable currency in the market increased by 300 million during the day, and the current total amount is 172.6 billion.
USDT: The official website data is 118.841 billion, an increase of 140 million compared with yesterday. Asian and European funds continue to flow in, and the mood is good.
USDC: The data website shows that the market value has decreased by 23 million and the transaction has decreased by 4%. According to the current situation, it should be involved in the transaction.
Summary:
Asian and European funds have been flowing into the sedimentation market for several weeks, and they must be waiting for the opportunity to bottom-fish. So if there is no appropriate opportunity after the interest rate meeting, will they continue to wait? Or just chase the highs and become a "leek"? It's a bit interesting.
$BTC
Before the interest rate meeting, record the data quickly. Because I don’t have yesterday’s market data, I won’t compare it.
However, from the simple data, the interest rate meeting of the altcoins and ETH is more tense, the market value has fallen, the trading volume has dropped, and the status of #BTC☀ is still good.
Focus on the funds again:
The stable currency in the market increased by 300 million during the day, and the current total amount is 172.6 billion.
USDT: The official website data is 118.841 billion, an increase of 140 million compared with yesterday. Asian and European funds continue to flow in, and the mood is good.
USDC: The data website shows that the market value has decreased by 23 million and the transaction has decreased by 4%. According to the current situation, it should be involved in the transaction.
Summary:
Asian and European funds have been flowing into the sedimentation market for several weeks, and they must be waiting for the opportunity to bottom-fish. So if there is no appropriate opportunity after the interest rate meeting, will they continue to wait? Or just chase the highs and become a "leek"? It's a bit interesting.
$BTC
See original
Let's take a look at the situation of several key financial markets before the interest rate meeting:
U.S. stocks, four major indexes fell collectively, the amplitude was not large, most of the technology stocks fell,
Gold fell slightly, the current price remains at $2569,
10-year U.S. Treasury bond prices fell, and the yield rose to 3.688%,
The U.S. dollar index is 100.9,
In fact, no matter how much risk the rate cut brings or how much the market falls, the rate cut is a good thing for the United States. The beginning of the rate cut cycle will stimulate funds to flow into the U.S. stock market and drive up stock prices.
The current performance of the U.S. stock market can be regarded as a hedge or wait-and-see before the interest rate meeting, and gold and U.S. Treasury bonds are basically the same.
Many people look forward to the beautiful vision of the future brought by the start of the U.S. dollar rate cut cycle. In fact, I prefer to be able to stabilize the Q4 of this year. The initial stability can lay a foundation for a better benign and stable economy.
Of course, there are also many people waiting for a sharp drop in the thunder. Although there is an opportunity to buy at the bottom, the chain reaction triggered may not be so optimistic. It's better to be safe.
#BTC☀ $BTC
U.S. stocks, four major indexes fell collectively, the amplitude was not large, most of the technology stocks fell,
Gold fell slightly, the current price remains at $2569,
10-year U.S. Treasury bond prices fell, and the yield rose to 3.688%,
The U.S. dollar index is 100.9,
In fact, no matter how much risk the rate cut brings or how much the market falls, the rate cut is a good thing for the United States. The beginning of the rate cut cycle will stimulate funds to flow into the U.S. stock market and drive up stock prices.
The current performance of the U.S. stock market can be regarded as a hedge or wait-and-see before the interest rate meeting, and gold and U.S. Treasury bonds are basically the same.
Many people look forward to the beautiful vision of the future brought by the start of the U.S. dollar rate cut cycle. In fact, I prefer to be able to stabilize the Q4 of this year. The initial stability can lay a foundation for a better benign and stable economy.
Of course, there are also many people waiting for a sharp drop in the thunder. Although there is an opportunity to buy at the bottom, the chain reaction triggered may not be so optimistic. It's better to be safe.
#BTC☀ $BTC
See original
Personal expectations of market fluctuations brought about by tonight's interest rate meeting (only personal expectations, not for trading reference)
At present, the highest probability of the market is still a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
According to previous management, Nick's remarks during the Fed's silent period often guide market expectations on behalf of the Fed, so it can be said that the market expects the first 50 basis point interest rate cut.
Impact:
A 50 basis point interest rate cut is in line with expectations. In the short term, the US stock market #BTC☀ sentiment rises, and then triggers a Sell the news decline. The decline may be large, but the short-term correction of the risk market is inevitable. Then it will rebound again, and the rebound time is currently difficult to predict.
A 25 basis point interest rate cut is not in line with expectations. In the short term, the US stock market BTC directly fell, which is not in line with expectations. Combined with the market decline, the market may have greater doubts about the subsequent US economy. The market needs to adjust its sentiment and the Fed will start to digest the rebound after sorting out expectations.
Note:
This is a preliminary expectation of the interest rate meeting results, but there are still many important factors affecting this interest rate meeting.
Powell's speech after the interest rate meeting, the release of the Fed's third dot plot. How Powell explains the interest rate results, and the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut plan brought about by the dot plot will have a great impact on the short-term market trend.
After the first interest rate cut, the main topic of macro market sentiment is the overall magnitude, speed and frequency of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year.
At the same time, more economic data of all sizes after the interest rate cut may trigger the market's unexpected associations, and see how the Fed balances market expectations.
$BTC
At present, the highest probability of the market is still a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
According to previous management, Nick's remarks during the Fed's silent period often guide market expectations on behalf of the Fed, so it can be said that the market expects the first 50 basis point interest rate cut.
Impact:
A 50 basis point interest rate cut is in line with expectations. In the short term, the US stock market #BTC☀ sentiment rises, and then triggers a Sell the news decline. The decline may be large, but the short-term correction of the risk market is inevitable. Then it will rebound again, and the rebound time is currently difficult to predict.
A 25 basis point interest rate cut is not in line with expectations. In the short term, the US stock market BTC directly fell, which is not in line with expectations. Combined with the market decline, the market may have greater doubts about the subsequent US economy. The market needs to adjust its sentiment and the Fed will start to digest the rebound after sorting out expectations.
Note:
This is a preliminary expectation of the interest rate meeting results, but there are still many important factors affecting this interest rate meeting.
Powell's speech after the interest rate meeting, the release of the Fed's third dot plot. How Powell explains the interest rate results, and the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut plan brought about by the dot plot will have a great impact on the short-term market trend.
After the first interest rate cut, the main topic of macro market sentiment is the overall magnitude, speed and frequency of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year.
At the same time, more economic data of all sizes after the interest rate cut may trigger the market's unexpected associations, and see how the Fed balances market expectations.
$BTC
薛定谔的猫叔
--
#BTC☀ Interpretation of the market: Before the interest rate meeting, enlarge the volatility range!
At 2 a.m. tonight, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will begin. If everything goes well, the US dollar will start a rate cut cycle. During this sensitive and important period, we adjust the overall volatility range to directly compare the daily range.
Support and resistance:
Support, 57,800 daily line middle line, lower line support 54,000,
Resistance, 61,800 daily line resistance, 63,000 daily line MA120 64,000 daily line 64,000,
Tonight's large range points are only for reference, there is no operational idea, and contract trading is not recommended. Although the profit is large, the risk is also greater.
Although the probability of winning is one in two, you have to consider whether you can afford the loss?
The next article will be my personal expectations of the impact of interest rate cuts on market fluctuations.
$BTC
At 2 a.m. tonight, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will begin. If everything goes well, the US dollar will start a rate cut cycle. During this sensitive and important period, we adjust the overall volatility range to directly compare the daily range.
Support and resistance:
Support, 57,800 daily line middle line, lower line support 54,000,
Resistance, 61,800 daily line resistance, 63,000 daily line MA120 64,000 daily line 64,000,
Tonight's large range points are only for reference, there is no operational idea, and contract trading is not recommended. Although the profit is large, the risk is also greater.
Although the probability of winning is one in two, you have to consider whether you can afford the loss?
The next article will be my personal expectations of the impact of interest rate cuts on market fluctuations.
$BTC
See original
#BTC☀ Interpretation of the market: Before the interest rate meeting, enlarge the volatility range!
At 2 a.m. tonight, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will begin. If everything goes well, the US dollar will start a rate cut cycle. During this sensitive and important period, we adjust the overall volatility range to directly compare the daily range.
Support and resistance:
Support, 57,800 daily line middle line, lower line support 54,000,
Resistance, 61,800 daily line resistance, 63,000 daily line MA120 64,000 daily line 64,000,
Tonight's large range points are only for reference, there is no operational idea, and contract trading is not recommended. Although the profit is large, the risk is also greater.
Although the probability of winning is one in two, you have to consider whether you can afford the loss?
The next article will be my personal expectations of the impact of interest rate cuts on market fluctuations.
$BTC
At 2 a.m. tonight, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will begin. If everything goes well, the US dollar will start a rate cut cycle. During this sensitive and important period, we adjust the overall volatility range to directly compare the daily range.
Support and resistance:
Support, 57,800 daily line middle line, lower line support 54,000,
Resistance, 61,800 daily line resistance, 63,000 daily line MA120 64,000 daily line 64,000,
Tonight's large range points are only for reference, there is no operational idea, and contract trading is not recommended. Although the profit is large, the risk is also greater.
Although the probability of winning is one in two, you have to consider whether you can afford the loss?
The next article will be my personal expectations of the impact of interest rate cuts on market fluctuations.
$BTC
See original
Eat and wait for the interest rate cut!
Try not to eat beef today, so as not to say that I ate the cow!
Try not to eat beef today, so as not to say that I ate the cow!
See original
Market data: simply compare the changes in funds.
The market rose tonight, and time is limited. Let's take a simple look at the changes in market funds.
At present, the overall assessment shows that the market rose tonight, and the main force is still the US area. Asian funds are not active for the time being. Pay attention to the trend of the Asian and European sessions tomorrow morning to see if the rise can continue.
USDT: The official website data is 118.701 billion, which is 84 million less than yesterday, and the trading volume has decreased by 16%. As of now, the flow of funds is less active.
USDC: The data website shows that the market value has decreased by 28 million and the trading volume has increased by 10%. The decrease in market value should be due to the intervention in market transactions, and at the same time it has led to an increase in trading volume.
Tonight, the US funds in the crypto market performed well and brought a certain increase, but the overall market liquidity is not high, so a small amount of funds may bring large fluctuations. The increase still depends on whether the subsequent Asian and European sessions will follow the rise.
At the interest rate meeting tomorrow, derivatives should focus on the game in the derivatives market. It is very likely that the market will be smoothly exited after the fund game is completed.
#BTC☀ $BTC
The market rose tonight, and time is limited. Let's take a simple look at the changes in market funds.
At present, the overall assessment shows that the market rose tonight, and the main force is still the US area. Asian funds are not active for the time being. Pay attention to the trend of the Asian and European sessions tomorrow morning to see if the rise can continue.
USDT: The official website data is 118.701 billion, which is 84 million less than yesterday, and the trading volume has decreased by 16%. As of now, the flow of funds is less active.
USDC: The data website shows that the market value has decreased by 28 million and the trading volume has increased by 10%. The decrease in market value should be due to the intervention in market transactions, and at the same time it has led to an increase in trading volume.
Tonight, the US funds in the crypto market performed well and brought a certain increase, but the overall market liquidity is not high, so a small amount of funds may bring large fluctuations. The increase still depends on whether the subsequent Asian and European sessions will follow the rise.
At the interest rate meeting tomorrow, derivatives should focus on the game in the derivatives market. It is very likely that the market will be smoothly exited after the fund game is completed.
#BTC☀ $BTC
See original
#BTC☀ Market Interpretation: Is the rebound before the interest rate meeting really good?
I am in Po County. Today I met with several friends whom I have admired for a long time. We had a good chat. Maybe the update will not be too timely.
Tonight's retail data went from being significantly lower than the previous value to being interpreted as better than expected, and then the Fed's mouthpiece Nick once again guided the market to expect the first 50 basis point rate cut, and the risk market rose as a result.
The sentiment of the US stock market began to fall in the second half. After all, it is about to face the implementation of the expectation of interest rate cut. BTC also fell slightly after hitting the daily resistance.
At present, the market's expected bets for a 50 basis point rate cut are still high, with a probability of 65%. This is the main factor for the bulls in the market tonight. But will it be good to rise like this before the interest rate meeting?
BTC currently hits the daily resistance and falls back. Continue to break through. There are still key daily MA120 63,000 and MA200 64,000 nearby that need to be broken through in the future, and there are heavy pressures.
Moreover, before the interest rate meeting, the market rose due to the expectation of 50. Once the interest rate is announced tomorrow and it is really cut by 50, will the market sell the news?
Tomorrow is another magical day. Alas,
In fact, according to convention, once Nick's expectations are released, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut is basically very small.
I was busy today and didn't have time to look at the market. The previous short position of 60,100 has triggered the stop loss.
$BTC
I am in Po County. Today I met with several friends whom I have admired for a long time. We had a good chat. Maybe the update will not be too timely.
Tonight's retail data went from being significantly lower than the previous value to being interpreted as better than expected, and then the Fed's mouthpiece Nick once again guided the market to expect the first 50 basis point rate cut, and the risk market rose as a result.
The sentiment of the US stock market began to fall in the second half. After all, it is about to face the implementation of the expectation of interest rate cut. BTC also fell slightly after hitting the daily resistance.
At present, the market's expected bets for a 50 basis point rate cut are still high, with a probability of 65%. This is the main factor for the bulls in the market tonight. But will it be good to rise like this before the interest rate meeting?
BTC currently hits the daily resistance and falls back. Continue to break through. There are still key daily MA120 63,000 and MA200 64,000 nearby that need to be broken through in the future, and there are heavy pressures.
Moreover, before the interest rate meeting, the market rose due to the expectation of 50. Once the interest rate is announced tomorrow and it is really cut by 50, will the market sell the news?
Tomorrow is another magical day. Alas,
In fact, according to convention, once Nick's expectations are released, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut is basically very small.
I was busy today and didn't have time to look at the market. The previous short position of 60,100 has triggered the stop loss.
$BTC