I can't stand it anymore, I'll update this dot plot and go to sleep.
According to the latest dot plot,
1. Most FOMC votes believe that in 2024, the interest rate will remain between 5% and 5.25%, which is the current interest rate. The dot plot predicts that there may be no subsequent interest rate cut plan in 2024.
2. The interest rate in 2025 will remain between 3.75% and 4.25%, and the interest rate cut plan for 25 years is about 100 basis points.
3. In 2026, the interest rate will further drop to the range of 2.75%-3.25, and the interest rate will be cut again by 100 basis points in 26 years.
4. In 2027, the interest rate will be maintained at around 2.75%-3%.
5. The long-term interest rate target is around 2.5%-3%.
To be honest, this period's dot plot is not too optimistic. If the current dot plot is expected, the first interest rate cut of 50 basis points in September will be the only interest rate cut in 2024, and the Fed's interest rate cut plan will be maintained until about 26 years, and the entire 25 years will still be in a high interest rate environment.
There was a 50 basis point interest rate cut before, and the dot plot did not have a subsequent interest rate cut plan in 2024. It really feels a bit deliberately hawkish.
In order to prevent the market from expecting a faster interest rate cut by the Fed, it directly relied on the dot plot to be hawkish and affect market expectations. At the same time, it is also in Xuancheng. Although I have entered the dollar cycle, I still have to continue to maintain high interest rates for a long time.
Judging from the current performance, I think it is a bit strong on the outside and weak on the inside, and it is deliberately hawkish.
As for the subsequent interest rate cut plan, this period's dot plot is not absolute. After all, there have been many reversals of dot plot expectations this year. Although the dot plot shows that there is no subsequent interest rate cut plan this year, the market will not so easily give up the expectation of a rate cut in November and December.
