What is "historical garbage time"? In short, it is when a certain period of history violates the laws of economics, it is difficult for individuals to reverse the situation, and the overall trend seems doomed to fail.
for example:
Japan's economy has stagnated for three decades since the bursting of the bubble in the 1990s. Young people have no opportunities and the country's and individuals' development has hit a ceiling.
During the Great Stagnation period from 1970 to 1982 in the United States, high inflation, high unemployment and low economic growth coexisted.
The Soviet Union lasted from 1979 to 1989, and even continues to the present Russia.
A speck of dust from the times, when it falls on an individual's head, is like a mountain. In the face of the general trend, individuals are always insignificant. Buffett became the "God of Stocks" because he was born in the United States and invested in U.S. stocks; the rise of China's wealthy class is riding on the east wind of China's reform and opening up over the past 40 years; some people get dozens of times or even higher returns by investing in altcoins/MEME coins because the rise of Bitcoin has driven market sentiment and brought in incremental funds...
But if the entire market or country is facing headwinds, no matter how hard an individual tries, it will be useless. In the investment market, "junk time" is particularly vivid. Take Bitcoin as an example. Most of the gains are concentrated in a few months, and the gains in those months are concentrated in a few days. Most of Bitcoin's annual gains occur within 10 days each year. "If you exclude the best 10 days of the year, Bitcoin actually has a negative return." All the waiting is just for the most critical ten days.
So, how should individuals deal with the "junk time" in the investment market? In this regard, A-share investors may have considerable experience.
The first method: lying down
This is the way most Japanese people chose after the economic bubble burst. Under the great mountain of the times, personal efforts are insignificant. Since you can't resist, just lie down and enjoy. If you can't change the reality, change yourself. In the words of the friends in the currency circle, it means going out in the rain, returning to the original life, no longer being kidnapped by the K-line, going out for a walk, dating beautiful women and handsome men, and meeting friends... At this time, it is a blessing in life to stay away from frequent transactions, invest in core assets such as Bitcoin, and hold cash such as USDT for continuous financial management.
The second method: moisturizing
For example, in the 1990s, a large number of Japanese companies chose to go overseas and created a second Japan overseas. Many people also chose to go to China to seek gold and look for new opportunities in markets that are not "garbage time". The same is true for investment. When A-shares are in "garbage time", many A-share investors turn to the US stock market and the crypto market. In 2024, when the crypto market is also in "garbage time", investors will turn their attention and liquidity to the US stock market. This is not speculation, but the real situation. The US stock market has siphoned a lot of liquidity from the crypto market this year. Many crypto tycoons worth billions of dollars have invested heavily in Nvidia, Tesla, etc., and have reaped a lot of rewards. This also reflects another situation: the overall wealth effect of the currency circle this year is far less than that of the US stock market.
The third method: volume
If the cake doesn't get bigger, you can only grab the cake from others if you want to get more cake. This is called "volume". Be ruthless to others, and be ruthless to yourself. The typical "volume" in the crypto market is on-chain PVP and rubbing. For small retail investors, there are greater opportunities on the chain. After all, in an exchange, your counterparties may be market makers, exchanges, and project parties, but on a chain with a relatively clear chip structure, everyone may rely on early participation to become the main force, and then rely on fooling group friends to complete liquidity exit. It's just that as the chain becomes more and more "volume", the life cycle of each dog is getting shorter and shorter, from 1 week to 1 day, or even to 1 hour. This is a more brutal fight, not to mention the various MEV robots and professional Rug issuance teams on the chain.
Finally, I still want to say that history has "junk time", but individuals do not. According to the data in the "Millennium History of the World Economy", the per capita GDP of Western Europe in the first millennium AD basically did not grow; it did not pick up until 1000 to 1500, and after the 18th century, it was like pulling onions from dry land. China's per capita GDP in the first millennium was slightly higher than that of Western Europe, but it also stagnated for a thousand years; the same was true in the first 900 years of the second millennium, and it has only caught up in the past hundred years. Looking back at history from a higher dimension, humans have been in "historical garbage time" for thousands of years, with no improvement in productivity, no appreciation of assets, and the efforts of everyone and every generation seem to be "wasted", just like experiencing a long winter. Historical opportunities are often only in the hands of one or two generations, but everyone still has to live and live well. Perhaps we have missed the best time to invest in Bitcoin. In the present that cannot be changed, perhaps it is still not so bad and the most cost-effective choice.
Finally, a poem by Zhang Yuangan of the Southern Song Dynasty is appropriate:
The white dog turns into floating clouds,
Eternal fame and honor will soon turn into dust.
It is good to drink with a sad song.
Let’s write a poem together to cherish the remaining spring.
The scenery is just like the Central Plains sun.
The stench is caused by people of our generation.
After the rain, the flying flowers know the bottom number,
Get drunk and win your freedom.
Live in the present, let us encourage each other.
$BTC $ETH
The current market continues to weaken, and some copycat stocks have been breaking new lows, and there is no sign of stopping the decline.
There's nothing much to say about this market. Empty, empty, empty.
If you don't know how to grasp the contract, the strategy layout, follow up, you lie
Just flat
