The BTC rate is declining today, breaking through the volume level of $61,231 and two important trend supports. A downward trend since June 7 and an upward trend since June 24.
The daily RSI and MACD are no longer looking so good for the bulls and hint at the risk of continued decline or, at best, a range. The range of which, according to the shadows of the daily candles, has been in the range of $60,163-$62,987 since June 24.
BUT in the next 6 hours we are waiting for the establishment of a layover and then an attempt to grow. The success of which will determine the ability of the bulls to recover above at least the volume level of $61,231 by the end of the day.
That's it in short. Detailed review of #BTC👇
Of yesterday's set of arguments for growth and decline, the latter outweighed. At the same time, an important short argument, the gap on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), has almost completely worked itself out. The remainder of the unclosed gap on the CME now is already $60,420-60,520. Only $100 out of almost $2000. But it will most likely be closed. Despite the fact that the current two-hour candle still has a bullish shadow below.
During the current decline, the price reached $60,336, almost testing the 0.236 Fibonacci level (rate $60,163). The next immediate support is the upward trend from mid-October 2023, drawn along the bodies of the candles (currently at $59,582).
If today's daily candle closes below the volume level of $61,231, we will wait for the continuation of the downward movement with targets for the volume level of $59,335 and EMA 200 of the daily TF (currently $58,292). In the first case, we will be talking about removing liquidity behind the level on June 28, in the second - after the level on June 24.
For now, there is a serious risk of breaking the ascending structure of candles on the daily TF. To invalidate it, you need to close today's candle at least above $60,991. And tomorrow’s price will be above $62,775, which still looks like a difficult task for the bulls.
If growth begins after the fall on July 2-3, then there is a good chance for a rebound to begin in the next 6 hours. The four-hour timeframe shows a “Cheap” signal on the DeMark trend reversal indicator.
An important nuance is that the signal is in the process of formation and another 6 hours (the remainder of the current candle and the entire next candle) is acceptable for the price to decrease. The last two four-hour candles on July 3rd will be very important. It will need to show bullish engulfing to have a chance of good growth.
If there is no return above $61,231 by the end of the day, breaking the signal on the four-hour time frame and continuing the decline will be a priority. By the way, such a signal was already broken on June 21, as can be seen on the graph. Then the strength of buyers was only enough to range before the next decline. If by the end of the day there is a recovery above the volume level of $61,231 (and therefore above the downward trend since June 7), the bulls will have a chance to continue growing.
