Powell said at last night's meeting that he thought satisfactory progress had been made on inflation, but still refused to say whether he was preparing for a rate cut in September. He reiterated that a sudden deterioration in job growth could prompt a faster rate cut.
The Fed's cautious attitude is still the impression it gives to the world. The Fed needs to see more inflationary evidence pointing in the direction of rate cuts, but they are also aware of the risks of cutting rates too early or too late. The Fed's next FOMC meeting will be held on the 30th and 31st of this month, and it is expected to continue to maintain high interest rates. The important thing is whether the information on rate cuts will be released at that time, we can wait and see.
The most important set of data this week is the non-farm employment and unemployment rate data from Friday. The previous value of non-farm was 272,000, and the expected value was 190,000; the unemployment rate was expected to be 4%, and the previous value was 4%. The release of non-farm data last month was far beyond expectations, resulting in a sharp drop in expectations for rate cuts, and I think the data is too watery, and it is likely to be revised back this time. Therefore, Friday's data is likely to be favorable to the direction of rate cuts. Today is Wednesday, and Thursday is the Independence Day of the United States, and the U.S. stock market will be closed.
Before the expectation of interest rate cut in September, the expectation should be relatively lower. After September, the Fed will enter the "striking range" of interest rate cuts, liquidity will return, and the market will be more optimistic. Let's wait and see.
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