Bitcoin computing power has rarely dropped to its lowest level since December 2022, when the collapse of FTX caused the market to plummet, marking the beginning of a new round of bear market. Judging from the Bitcoin inventory data of exchanges and miners' reserves, Bitcoin has undoubtedly reached the bottom of a range at this stage, and the long-short divergence in the bull market cycle often reaches its maximum at this stage.
Does that mean that the market can go up with the short-term bottom signal? Obviously not! In history, at the bottom of every major cycle, after a continuous downturn, there will be a round of short-selling inducing market. When the short-selling sentiment reaches a short-term extreme, a big positive line will pierce the short-selling fantasy, and it will take off with enough fuel. Going up directly at the moment does not conform to the actual market volume.
Yesterday, I also gave a general view on the market. The market in the second half of the year will start from this month, and the bottom of the second half of the year will also be determined this month. On the macro level, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 129 million US dollars yesterday, which was the fifth consecutive net inflow trading day in the short term. The sentiment of OTC funds has gradually eased, and the net inflow has become an expanding trend.
This Thursday is the Independence Day in the United States. The U.S. stock market will be closed for a day and a half starting from the second half of Wednesday night. The unemployment rate and non-farm data for June will be released at 8:30 pm on Friday. Before that, the market is expected to remain in a small range of fluctuations. In terms of data, Sanshu believes that combined with the unexpectedly negative data last month, this month is bound to make a certain degree of data repair, which is expected to bring short-term benefits.
There have been repeated voices in the market recently about whether inflation will ease or not, which has led to unnecessary negative fluctuations in the market. In terms of cycles, Sanshu believes that no matter how the short-term sentiment fluctuates, as time goes by and the severity of the economic environment increases, interest rate cuts are a certainty, which can be confirmed by the increase in the one-year unemployment rate data and the cyclical benefits of PCE data. The darkness before dawn is very tiring and the days are like years.
TON is approaching its historical high again. It is expected that after a short-term breakthrough, it will make a long-term breakthrough with the previous high as the low. At present, TON's market value has surpassed doge and ranked eighth. There is basically no suspense about surpassing Ripple in the short term. Compared with other VC coins, TON's market value is relatively large, and its circulation volume is less than 50%. It can reach this height in this environment at this stage. The construction of the ecosystem is closely related to the project's long-term concept of user traffic. Uncle San said before that the token price of a project is not closely related to its own market value. The market value of Ethereum in the last bull market, Sol and Ton in this bull market are all good examples.
Let go of anxiety, a good life is not in a hurry. Speculate in cryptocurrencies! Take your time, time may not be the antidote, but the antidote must be in time. Give space to trends, and give time time.
BTC: Bitcoin has little intraday volatility. Although the short-term macro funds have eased, the technical repair caused by the previous oversold situation still needs to go through a process. Although the daily level market is still below the zero axis, the appropriate rebound of the trend can no longer be stopped, so just continue to wait and see.
Operationally, before Bitcoin can stabilize at 66,000 points, the first short-term focus is on the stabilization of 63,500 points. The second target is the breakthrough of 66,000 points. The bottom strong support point is 60,000 points.
ETH: Ethereum's trend is linked to Bitcoin, but the market sentiment is relatively high. Ethereum, which has a relatively high cost-effectiveness, is one of the top currencies. The listing of ETFs is one of the main reasons why Ethereum can maintain its strength in the future. It is expected that Ethereum will conservatively increase by at least double in the quarter after the listing of ETFs, which will be equivalent to the high point after Bitcoin is approved. Continue to buy low and pay attention to recent news and the listing time of Grayscale!
SOL: Vaneck became the first institution to apply for Solana spot ETF, triggering a surge in the related ecosystem in the evening. Just keep holding the chips below 140 points. It will try to break through 150 points during the day. It is expected to fluctuate repeatedly and continue to rise.
WLD: A huge amount of unlocking will start on the 24th of this month, and those with chips will be shipped for safe haven. If there is a logic of long-term large-scale unlocking of related VC coins, just sell them directly. The strong ecosystems for swapping positions are Ethereum, SOL and TON ecosystems.
Shanzhai: In the first week of July, observe the capital flow of the entire market. The final adjustment phase of the market will not last too long. It will be relatively safe to cover positions on the right side or chase the rise. In June, the focus of community accumulation was on ETH, SSV and ORDI. The short-term trend is about to emerge. Other covering positions are more to pull the average price. The market is too lagging.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #非农就业数据即将公布 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率增幅创2021年3月以来新低 $BTC #VanEck提交首个SolanaETF