Yesterday, Bitcoin opened the September market with a 2.83% negative line, and the bottom was close to 57,000 points. Under the linkage of the market, the rebound offensive of most strong coins in the short term returned to the starting point. According to known data, in the past ten years, only three annual cycles of Bitcoin closed with positive lines in September, and the highest was only 6.04% in 2016. Therefore, most opinions in public opinion tend to continue to be bearish this month.

Judging from the closing line in August, the adjustment status of the weekly line, and the current daily line amplitude range, it is highly likely that the bitcoin price will continue to go short. The only positive news this month is the Fed's interest rate decision at 2 a.m. on the 19th. Most of the news speculation before this will be around 25 basis points or 50 basis points. If the first interest rate cut is 50 basis points, the market will reverse in the short term, bringing a strong bullish impetus.

Of course, if the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it is not ruled out that after a brief reversal, the market will accelerate to a new low. The logic of the interest rate cut is that there is a problem with the macro-market economy. The larger the interest rate cut, the bigger the problem. After the release of a short period of positive news, the concern about economic recession is inevitably raised to a new emotional height.

The most appropriate scenario is still an orderly interest rate cut starting from 25 basis points or even an expansion of the balance sheet starting at the end of the year. Even if the orderly improvement of liquidity does not bring about a short-term violent pull-up, it can minimize the occurrence of macroeconomic market black swans caused by two or three interest rate cuts. A gentle and orderly release of liquidity is the biggest soft landing for the global economy.

In my opinion, if we have to set a tone for the market in September, it is to continue to increase the volatility from the current amplitude range, and it is this kind of irregularity. It briefly broke through 60,000 points upwards, and violently dropped below 54,000 points downwards. Before the interest rate cut, all the long and short fantasies in the leveraged market were extinguished, and a clean environment for the future bull market was created.

Therefore, in terms of operation, it is relatively cost-effective to sell high and buy low this month, especially for some strong sectors. However, leveraged players of contracts will be particularly uncomfortable. In a market that is not affected by technical and fundamental logic, using the highest risk method to gain profits is like trying to pull chestnuts from the fire, and ultimately nothing will be achieved.

On the last trading day of August, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 175 million US dollars, and there was no data update for Ethereum for the time being. This indirectly indicates that the wait-and-see sentiment before the short-term over-the-counter rate cut is increasing. Correspondingly, the relatively positive aspect is that Trump's current probability of winning the election has returned to above 50%. The crypto market is looking forward to his victory, and web3 needs a national strategy.

I took a look at the on-chain data during the day. The current bottleneck of liquidity has risen to a new height. The inflow and outflow of about 20 million US dollars can cause the volatility of Bitcoin to exceed 2%. It can be seen how many old people in the market are lying flat. Yesterday's Bitcoin decline had basically no volatility of chips a month ago. Most of it was a small-scale panic selling of bottom-fishing in the past two weeks. Since everyone is lying flat, let's wait.

BTC: After a day of volatility, Bitcoin returned to above 58,000 points in the evening. From the current situation, it has been unable to break through the upper trend pressure level of 59,000 points. The current small-level bulls are still in a weak state. The volatility has expanded from 58,000 points-59,000 points to around 57,000 points. There is no reference indicator on the current trend. The technical side continues to fluctuate widely, with a high of 59,000 points and a low of 57,000 points. The probability of further decline is greater.

ETH: Ethereum is weakly linked to Bitcoin, and the data situation is really worrying.

SOL: Solana is about to return to the starting point below 140 points in this round. 130 points have been received, and you can connect at any time if it reaches 120. When there is no opportunity, I am afraid that I can't connect. If there is an opportunity, then go for this strong public chain.

TON: The bottom stop loss is lowered to five US dollars, don’t worry about it.

SATS: The four-hour market broke through the pressure trend level yesterday, and the daily closing tomorrow morning was also okay, but it was brought down by Bitcoin. The current trend is returning to above 30, and it is currently linked to Bitcoin.

The Fear and Greed Index is 34 during the day, in a state of fear.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! ​​​#Telegram创始人获保释 #非农就业数据即将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #英伟达财报 $BTC