QCP: 3 Big Signs Pointing to a Bullish Bitcoin Market in July
At the beginning of July, Bitcoin rebounded from the trough and once rose to around $64,000. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index also turned from fear to neutral. Is the market getting better?
Singaporean crypto trading company QCP Capital issued an article yesterday stating that many signs show that the Bitcoin market is bullish in July. The following are 3 main signs:
Bitcoin spot ETF inflows resume: Net inflows of $73 million on Friday were the highest single-day inflows in two weeks.
Historical data: Bitcoin’s median return in July was 9.6%, and the trend has typically seen strong rallies, especially after negative returns in June.
Options Trading Desk: QCP Capital’s options trading desk data showed that flows from Friday to the end of the month were positioned for gains, likely in anticipation of the official launch of the Ethereum spot ETF.
QCP Capital also offers simple trading strategies:
“Because Bitcoin has a ‘false dip’ below $60,000 and has entered a typical bullish month. Therefore, even if Bitcoin has risen to $71,000, you can still expect to buy Bitcoin under $60,000.”
CoinGlass data shows that from 2013 to 2023, Bitcoin’s return rate in July every year was mostly positive. If the return rate in June was negative, then the return rate in July would end with a positive value. However, the median return rate calculated by CoingGlass in July was 8.9%, which is somewhat different from the figure calculated by QCP Capital.
Image source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin’s return performance in July each year
Coinbase is also bullish on July trends
In the latest report, the US-listed exchange Coinbase also mentioned the performance data of July over the years, believing that Bitcoin and Ethereum usually perform well.
Coinbase pointed out that when the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox announced that it would initiate compensation payments in July, a large number of excess open positions were liquidated, which was beneficial to improving the market pattern. Furthermore, liquidity may have improved as spot and futures trading volumes for Bitcoin and Ethereum on global exchanges fell from $90 billion to $75 billion between May and June.
However, Coinbase also reminded that the token unlocking plan of a large number of altcoins is still a hidden concern for investors. According to the Token Unlocking Platform, $58 billion worth of tokens are still expected to be unlocked this year, and with the current market cap of stablecoins at just $162 billion, there may not be enough new funding to help absorb the selling pressure.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. Analysts' opinions are for reference only. Users should refer to more diverse indicators to judge whether to invest, and consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
