Yesterday, Saturday, ETF stopped trading. Let’s take a look at the on-chain data first. Stablecoins rebounded a little bit, which is a small positive. The inflow of BTC into the exchange began to slow down, but it is still at a high level.
Several important macro data:
Powell to speak next Tuesday
Wednesday 20:15, release of US June ADP employment data
At 20:30 on Friday, the US June non-farm payrolls will be released
The last data released was 275,000, which was much higher than the expected 200,000, causing BTC to plummet. This time it should return to normal and not be so exaggerated.
In fact, the Fed’s policy is not very important in the near future for the cryptocurrency market. The most urgent issue is the Mentougou incident. BTC worth $9 billion is no joke. Even if only 1/3 flows into the market, it will still be $3 billion, which is enough for ETF net buying funds to inflow for more than a month to offset. Mentougou must come out with results before July 10.
Don’t buy the dip these days, wait a few more days, unless you are short, we need to prevent BTC from falling.
The market is quietly completing a new round of market reorganization. The figure below shows the proportion of Bitcoin market value to altcoins. The monthly line is now near the suppression line. After the last bull market reached this line, altcoins all experienced big market trends, so the probability of a market trend occurring in July-November is very high. The current price of high-quality altcoins is at the bottom range in the future. Ethereum ETF funds have not entered the market, and confidence is still there.
Has the market hit bottom? If you want to buy at the bottom, what references should you use?
This week, the price of Bitcoin fell to around 58,500 and then rebounded. From common experience, after a long period of downward trend, it is often impossible to reverse like a flash crash in a bull market, but it takes two or even three times of effective bottoming to confirm. The current rebound strength is not good, whether it is the left bottom needs to be observed, and the probability is not high. .
Governments and institutions are constantly selling. Recently, the German government transferred about 5,000 BTC and the US government transferred about 4,000 BTC. It is highly likely that they are selling. Mt. Gox has started paying compensation, and about 140,000 BTC will be sold. These countries and institutions may not dump all the cryptocurrencies they hold directly in the market, but will sell them in batches through OTC. However, in any case, it will cause a certain degree of selling pressure on the market. When the market is good, the market will fall due to these behaviors. Now that market sentiment is low, it is more like a sword that continues to hang over the market.
I won’t analyze the macroeconomics here any more. The expectation of interest rate cuts is still the main theme, and the others are all side stories. The spring has almost reached the bottom, so either the interest rate cuts are done in a step-by-step manner, or they are cut quickly after the economic recession.
Although various concepts are emerging in the cryptocurrency circle, they are all promoted by the interest groups, and there is no money-making effect in the actual market. Both institutions and retail investors are complaining. Institutions are profitable but locked up, and retail investors are trapped as soon as they take over. Almost all new projects launched on BN and OK are going down all the way, and Ethereum GAS has dropped to a new low, which is enough to prove the cold market.
There is almost no good news in the market at present, and the sentiment is close to freezing point. Subjectively speaking, I think the market has not bottomed out yet and it is garbage time.
If you want to buy at the bottom, what should you refer to?
1. BTC is still the first choice. The ETH market still has faith in BTC. Large investors and institutions have been increasing their positions. ETFs are also continuing to flow in. At present, market participants are increasingly inclined to buy top assets. Therefore, although BTC has limited growth, it is still the first choice for configuration. If you can't afford BTC, you can change BTC's reference to ETH. If the ETF arrives as scheduled next month, ETH's growth will hopefully exceed BTC!
2. Meme concept. In this round of bull market, MEME has performed really well. Retail investors do not like to take over VC coins but prefer to buy MEME. In addition, institutions are no longer biased towards MEME, which has boosted the popularity of MEME. In every rebound, the increase in MEME coins has also led the market.
Current MEME concept references: PEPE, FLOKI.
3. Buy tracks and projects with deterministic narratives. Although these tracks may have seen a large increase in the previous market, they are relatively reliable because they are protected by trends. For example, AI track, RWA track, and SOL track!
Try to stay away from projects with high valuations and low circulation. The valuations of such projects are too high and the secondary market space is limited, but institutions and project parties are looking forward to unlocking shipments, and the selling pressure is huge. This does not mean that such projects will not rise, and short-term speculation and quick entry and exit are acceptable.
Don't participate in staking and locking positions. There are some differences between the current staking and the DeFi in the last bull market. If the previous DeFi market was not right, you could withdraw your funds at any time to stop losses. The current staking of points-based projects is either delayed in redemption or takes dozens of days to unlock after being locked. In the current market environment where the trend is unclear, try to make your positions more flexible, don't have too much faith in the project, and don't fall in love with the project.
Try to split your positions to buy at the bottom and stay away from contract leverage.
Bitcoin will pull back in June every year, followed by a sharp rise.
You can check the K-line chart yourself. I don’t know whether this rule is still valid in this bull market. Today, when I was looking for information, I saw this point of view, so I went to check it out myself and found that it was true. It’s amazing.
Therefore, everyone should have firm confidence in the future market conditions, as we are indeed on the eve of a bull market.
A bull market often starts suddenly and silently. If you are short, you are very likely to miss this bull market.
In a bull market, you should be greedy. If you are too fearful, you can only wait for the next bull market.
In a bear market, we should be more fearful, because the lower limit of the market will definitely exceed your psychological cognition.
In the short term, Bitcoin usually moves sideways over the weekend and then falls on Monday, so let’s take a break this weekend and see how things go on Monday.
Yesterday, Saturday, ETF stopped trading. Let’s take a look at the on-chain data first. Stablecoins rebounded a little bit, which is a small positive. The inflow of BTC into the exchange began to slow down, but it is still at a high level.
Several important macro data:
Powell to speak next Tuesday
Wednesday 20:15, release of US June ADP employment data
At 20:30 on Friday, the US non-farm payrolls for June will be released
The last data released was 275,000, which was much higher than the expected 200,000, causing BTC to plummet. This time it should return to normal and not be so exaggerated.
In fact, the Fed’s policy is not very important in the near future for the cryptocurrency market. The most urgent issue is the Mentougou incident. BTC worth $9 billion is no joke. Even if only 1/3 flows into the market, it will still be $3 billion, which is enough for ETF net buying funds to inflow for more than a month to offset. Mentougou must come out with results before July 10.
Don’t buy the dip these days, wait a few more days, unless you are short, we need to prevent BTC from falling.
The market is quietly completing a new round of market reorganization. The figure below shows the proportion of Bitcoin market value to altcoins. The monthly line is now near the suppression line. After the last bull market reached this line, altcoins all experienced big market trends, so the probability of a market trend occurring in July-November is very high. The current price of high-quality altcoins is at the bottom range in the future. Ethereum ETF funds have not entered the market, and confidence is still there.
Has the market hit bottom? If you want to buy at the bottom, what references should you use?
This week, the price of Bitcoin fell to around 58,500 and then rebounded. From common experience, after a long period of downward trend, it is often impossible to reverse like a flash crash in a bull market, but it takes two or even three times of effective bottoming to confirm. The current rebound strength is not good, whether it is the left bottom needs to be observed, and the probability is not high. .
Governments and institutions are constantly selling. Recently, the German government transferred about 5,000 BTC and the US government transferred about 4,000 BTC. It is highly likely that they are selling. Mt. Gox has started paying compensation, and about 140,000 BTC will be sold. These countries and institutions may not dump all the cryptocurrencies they hold directly in the market, but will sell them in batches through OTC. However, in any case, it will cause a certain degree of selling pressure on the market. When the market is good, the market will fall due to these behaviors. Now that market sentiment is low, it is more like a sword that continues to hang over the market.
I won’t analyze the macroeconomics here any more. The expectation of interest rate cuts is still the main theme, and the others are all side stories. The spring has almost reached the bottom, so either the interest rate cuts are done in a step-by-step manner, or they are cut quickly after the economic recession.
Although various concepts are emerging in the cryptocurrency circle, they are all promoted by the interest groups, and there is no money-making effect in the actual market. Both institutions and retail investors are complaining. Institutions are profitable but locked up, and retail investors are trapped as soon as they take over. Almost all new projects launched on BN and OK are going down all the way, and Ethereum GAS has dropped to a new low, which is enough to prove the cold market.
There is almost no good news in the market at present, and the sentiment is close to freezing point. Subjectively speaking, I think the market has not bottomed out yet and it is garbage time.
If you want to buy at the bottom, what should you refer to?
1. BTC is still the first choice. The ETH market still has faith in BTC. Large investors and institutions have been increasing their positions. ETFs are also continuing to flow in. At present, market participants are increasingly inclined to buy top assets. Therefore, although BTC has limited growth, it is still the first choice for configuration. If you can't afford BTC, you can change BTC's reference to ETH. If the ETF arrives as scheduled next month, ETH's growth will hopefully exceed BTC!
2. Meme concept. In this round of bull market, MEME has performed really well. Retail investors do not like to take over VC coins but prefer to buy MEME. In addition, institutions are no longer biased towards MEME, which has boosted the popularity of MEME. In every rebound, the increase in MEME coins has also led the market.
Current MEME concept references: PEPE, FLOKI.
3. Buy tracks and projects with deterministic narratives. Although these tracks may have seen a large increase in the previous market, they are relatively reliable because they are protected by trends. For example, AI track, RWA track, and SOL track!
Try to stay away from projects with high valuations and low circulation. The valuations of such projects are too high and the secondary market space is limited, but institutions and project parties are looking forward to unlocking shipments, and the selling pressure is huge. This does not mean that such projects will not rise, and short-term speculation and quick entry and exit are acceptable.
Don't participate in staking and locking positions. There are some differences between the current staking and the DeFi in the last bull market. If the previous DeFi market was not right, you could withdraw your funds at any time to stop losses. The current points-based project staking is either delayed in redemption or takes dozens of days to unlock after being locked. In the current market environment where the trend is unclear, try to make your positions more flexible, don't have too much faith in the project, and don't fall in love with the project.
Try to split your positions to buy at the bottom and stay away from contract leverage.
Bitcoin will pull back in June every year, followed by a sharp rise.
You can check the K-line chart yourself. I don’t know whether this rule is still valid in this bull market. Today, when I was looking for information, I saw this point of view, so I went to check it out myself and found that it was true. It’s amazing.
Therefore, everyone should have firm confidence in the future market conditions, as we are indeed on the eve of a bull market.
A bull market often starts suddenly and silently. If you are short, you are very likely to miss this bull market.
In a bull market, you should be greedy. If you are too fearful, you can only wait for the next bull market.
In a bear market, we should be more fearful, because the lower limit of the market will definitely exceed your psychological cognition.
In the short term, Bitcoin usually moves sideways over the weekend and then falls on Monday, so let’s take a break this weekend and see how things go on Monday.
