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2025 is an Opportunity for Young PeopleHappy New Year, friends! Recently, I found time to look at the major global investment banks' (2025 Investment Outlook) reports, and I wanted to discuss with you some economic trends in 2025 that are worth our attention in light of the global economic situation in 2024. The overall environment is entering a global easing policy cycle. In the second half of 2024, global economic policies will start to shift, and global #通胀 will begin to ease, with most economies starting to cut interest rates. This means that the global economy is gradually transitioning from a 'de-leveraging' phase to a 'leveraging' phase. Such a shift is beneficial for supporting economic growth and risk assets such as stocks and high-yield bonds.

2025 is an Opportunity for Young People

Happy New Year, friends! Recently, I found time to look at the major global investment banks' (2025 Investment Outlook) reports, and I wanted to discuss with you some economic trends in 2025 that are worth our attention in light of the global economic situation in 2024.

The overall environment is entering a global easing policy cycle.
In the second half of 2024, global economic policies will start to shift, and global #通胀 will begin to ease, with most economies starting to cut interest rates. This means that the global economy is gradually transitioning from a 'de-leveraging' phase to a 'leveraging' phase. Such a shift is beneficial for supporting economic growth and risk assets such as stocks and high-yield bonds.
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Some institutions say Moutai will be cut in halfMoutai, which has fallen for seven consecutive days, topped the list of hot stocks, with its share price hitting a 22-month low. In October 2022, it also fell below 1,400. At that time, the market had doubts about the third-quarter report. As a result, Moutai's performance shattered the doubts and the stock price rebounded quickly. In comparison, the situation this time is much more complicated. The overall consumer market is sluggish, and the price of Moutai in the secondary market has experienced a sharp drop. The price of a single bottle of Feitian in bulk has dropped to as low as 2,080. Although the price has been stabilized by reducing supply and other measures, market confidence is still somewhat shaky. Then yesterday, UBS's research report gave another push. The core idea is that the annual compound growth rate in 2024-2025 will drop from 19% to 8%. Due to the expansion of production capacity in the past few years, high-end liquor will face great retail pressure in the next one and a half years. It also pessimistically predicted that the wholesale prices of Moutai and Wuliangye may fall by 50% and 17% by the end of 2025, and stabilize until 2026.

Some institutions say Moutai will be cut in half

Moutai, which has fallen for seven consecutive days, topped the list of hot stocks, with its share price hitting a 22-month low. In October 2022, it also fell below 1,400. At that time, the market had doubts about the third-quarter report. As a result, Moutai's performance shattered the doubts and the stock price rebounded quickly.
In comparison, the situation this time is much more complicated. The overall consumer market is sluggish, and the price of Moutai in the secondary market has experienced a sharp drop. The price of a single bottle of Feitian in bulk has dropped to as low as 2,080. Although the price has been stabilized by reducing supply and other measures, market confidence is still somewhat shaky.
Then yesterday, UBS's research report gave another push. The core idea is that the annual compound growth rate in 2024-2025 will drop from 19% to 8%. Due to the expansion of production capacity in the past few years, high-end liquor will face great retail pressure in the next one and a half years. It also pessimistically predicted that the wholesale prices of Moutai and Wuliangye may fall by 50% and 17% by the end of 2025, and stabilize until 2026.
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#通胀 challenged a small position of 10,000 on gate1000, and encountered a retracement at 6,500. I set a stop loss, but after the stop loss was set in batches, the position retreated to 2,500, and all the losses were on pyth. Half of the stop loss line, and the other half was just cut. Not strictly following the rules set by myself (three times, 1/3 stop loss line) will only cause greater losses. As long as there is a sudden surge, there is a risk of liquidation. Binance's pyth position felt that the funding fee was too abnormal on the 19th, and I made a small profit of 466U. Let's wait and see the market situation. The next opportunity will have to wait until the end of June. Before that, I was short and learned and felt life. I opened a position on April 8th, and it is currently predicted that the challenge will not be completed until the end of July. The following are my personal opinions 1. Bitcoin was originally designed as an inflation-resistant payment system, and its market value is mainly the product of fiat currency inflation. Every fiat currency-related policy will cause abnormal fluctuations in the crypto market, so bring a stop loss; 2. 99.9% of the copycats will return to zero, and do certain things - empty copycats, while the information on fiat currency or policy has a lag, and ordinary people cannot confirm it in the first time. After confirmation, the market has ended; 3. The information on the chain is equally accessible to everyone, depending on your on-chain analysis ability; 4. The way is simple, and the supply and demand relationship (this point also reflects 1) is the main factor affecting the price; 5. The difference between trading and gambling The main thing is whether there is a trading logic (personal logic is supply and demand. If the Fed QEs and the total amount of BTC is fixed, BTC will rise. If the altcoin is released and the buying is limited, the altcoin will fall); 6. Trading is a long-term thing. It is wrong to fantasize about getting rich overnight. Even if you have the opportunity to buy BOME, WIF, etc., you dare not go all in, or run away early (in 2019, 2 million hexes were sold for 8,000 RMB, and the highest value was 6 million. ILV invested in 3 US dollars was sold at 38 in the last wave, and ordi was sold at 4.6); The Fed has no other way except QE to quench thirst, and inflation has to be solved, so the world is going to be in chaos. I am waiting for a big guy who is good at analyzing the solana chain. If there is one, please seek some advice. #pyth #美联储何时降息? #链上
#通胀 challenged a small position of 10,000 on gate1000, and encountered a retracement at 6,500. I set a stop loss, but after the stop loss was set in batches, the position retreated to 2,500, and all the losses were on pyth. Half of the stop loss line, and the other half was just cut. Not strictly following the rules set by myself (three times, 1/3 stop loss line) will only cause greater losses. As long as there is a sudden surge, there is a risk of liquidation.
Binance's pyth position felt that the funding fee was too abnormal on the 19th, and I made a small profit of 466U. Let's wait and see the market situation. The next opportunity will have to wait until the end of June. Before that, I was short and learned and felt life. I opened a position on April 8th, and it is currently predicted that the challenge will not be completed until the end of July.
The following are my personal opinions
1. Bitcoin was originally designed as an inflation-resistant payment system, and its market value is mainly the product of fiat currency inflation. Every fiat currency-related policy will cause abnormal fluctuations in the crypto market, so bring a stop loss;
2. 99.9% of the copycats will return to zero, and do certain things - empty copycats, while the information on fiat currency or policy has a lag, and ordinary people cannot confirm it in the first time. After confirmation, the market has ended;
3. The information on the chain is equally accessible to everyone, depending on your on-chain analysis ability;
4. The way is simple, and the supply and demand relationship (this point also reflects 1) is the main factor affecting the price;
5. The difference between trading and gambling The main thing is whether there is a trading logic (personal logic is supply and demand. If the Fed QEs and the total amount of BTC is fixed, BTC will rise. If the altcoin is released and the buying is limited, the altcoin will fall);
6. Trading is a long-term thing. It is wrong to fantasize about getting rich overnight. Even if you have the opportunity to buy BOME, WIF, etc., you dare not go all in, or run away early (in 2019, 2 million hexes were sold for 8,000 RMB, and the highest value was 6 million. ILV invested in 3 US dollars was sold at 38 in the last wave, and ordi was sold at 4.6);

The Fed has no other way except QE to quench thirst, and inflation has to be solved, so the world is going to be in chaos.
I am waiting for a big guy who is good at analyzing the solana chain. If there is one, please seek some advice.

#pyth #美联储何时降息? #链上
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Bitcoin fell 15% in three weeks, will US data determine the market bottom? In the past three weeks, Bitcoin has experienced a correction of about 15%, with prices falling from a range of around $70,000 to around $60,000. In recent weeks, open interest has dropped by almost $3 billion. The financing rate for perpetual contracts has dropped to almost zero, which makes the power between buyers and sellers more balanced. For short-term holders, the current price exceeds their realization price. At present, the average profit of short-term holders is slightly negative, which has always supported local adjustments in the past. US GDP and unemployment data will be released on Thursday, and inflation data (PCE) will be released on Friday. However, judging from the current structure, there may be a local bottom. #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美国PCE数据将公布 #通胀 #失业率 #通胀数 $ORN $WIF $BONK
Bitcoin fell 15% in three weeks, will US data determine the market bottom?

In the past three weeks, Bitcoin has experienced a correction of about 15%, with prices falling from a range of around $70,000 to around $60,000.

In recent weeks, open interest has dropped by almost $3 billion. The financing rate for perpetual contracts has dropped to almost zero, which makes the power between buyers and sellers more balanced.

For short-term holders, the current price exceeds their realization price. At present, the average profit of short-term holders is slightly negative, which has always supported local adjustments in the past.

US GDP and unemployment data will be released on Thursday, and inflation data (PCE) will be released on Friday. However, judging from the current structure, there may be a local bottom.

#Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美国PCE数据将公布 #通胀 #失业率 #通胀数
$ORN $WIF $BONK
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Bullish
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$BTC In the latest "60 Minutes" interview, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell actually threatened that he did not have to wait for inflation to return to 2% and was actively considering preparing for an early interest rate cut. The U.S. economy is currently so strong, with the core inflation rate as high as 3.9% and the nominal inflation rate still at 3.1%. The economic environment does not yet have the conditions for a shift in monetary policy. But with Powell’s impatient statement, doesn’t it give Biden the consideration to assist in next year’s election? Don’t forget who nominated him for three terms as Fed chairman. It is conceivable that maintaining economic prosperity at all costs is Powell's invisible political task. Before the election at the end of the year, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once, and may even stop shrinking its balance sheet. Go long $BTC $BNB! #内容挖矿 #美联储 #鲍威尔 #通胀 Interview link: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/full-transcript-fed-chair-jerome-powell-60-minutes-interview-economy/
$BTC

In the latest "60 Minutes" interview, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell actually threatened that he did not have to wait for inflation to return to 2% and was actively considering preparing for an early interest rate cut.

The U.S. economy is currently so strong, with the core inflation rate as high as 3.9% and the nominal inflation rate still at 3.1%. The economic environment does not yet have the conditions for a shift in monetary policy.

But with Powell’s impatient statement, doesn’t it give Biden the consideration to assist in next year’s election? Don’t forget who nominated him for three terms as Fed chairman.

It is conceivable that maintaining economic prosperity at all costs is Powell's invisible political task. Before the election at the end of the year, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once, and may even stop shrinking its balance sheet.

Go long $BTC $BNB !

#内容挖矿 #美联储 #鲍威尔 #通胀

Interview link:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/full-transcript-fed-chair-jerome-powell-60-minutes-interview-economy/
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During the financial crisis in 2007, a stimulus package of 4 trillion yuan was launched. The 4 trillion yuan was short-term debt, which had to be repaid within 5 years. After that, trillions of yuan were released every year. Now we are going to issue ultra-long-term government bonds, which can be considered as not having to be repaid. Will it become the new normal in a year? #通胀 is the biggest benefit of $BTC Bitcoin!
During the financial crisis in 2007, a stimulus package of 4 trillion yuan was launched. The 4 trillion yuan was short-term debt, which had to be repaid within 5 years.
After that, trillions of yuan were released every year.
Now we are going to issue ultra-long-term government bonds, which can be considered as not having to be repaid.
Will it become the new normal in a year?

#通胀 is the biggest benefit of $BTC Bitcoin!
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Correlation of Bitcoin with the US market and risk of declineOne. Macroeconomic risk factors 1. Inflation rebound pressure Core PCE inflation rate rebounds across the board, expected core CPI to return to 4% by early 2025 Three-month annualized core CPI close to 4%, indicating persistent inflation pressure Long-term inflation expectations rise above 3%, higher than historical average 2. Abnormalities in the bond market 10-year Treasury yield surges by 85 basis points Bond ETF (TLT) down 11% within three months 30-year mortgage rate rises from 6% to 7%, suppressing real estate market vitality Two. Deterioration of consumer financial conditions 1. Credit card debt issues Credit card debt surpasses $1 trillion, a historic high Credit card interest rates reach 21.76%, a historic high

Correlation of Bitcoin with the US market and risk of decline

One. Macroeconomic risk factors
1. Inflation rebound pressure
Core PCE inflation rate rebounds across the board, expected core CPI to return to 4% by early 2025
Three-month annualized core CPI close to 4%, indicating persistent inflation pressure
Long-term inflation expectations rise above 3%, higher than historical average
2. Abnormalities in the bond market
10-year Treasury yield surges by 85 basis points
Bond ETF (TLT) down 11% within three months
30-year mortgage rate rises from 6% to 7%, suppressing real estate market vitality
Two. Deterioration of consumer financial conditions
1. Credit card debt issues
Credit card debt surpasses $1 trillion, a historic high
Credit card interest rates reach 21.76%, a historic high
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This week, the market may encounter three unfavorable situations: First, Iran may really take action and be unfriendly to Israel. You see, their missile forces started to conduct exercises in the west yesterday, and they will continue until Tuesday. Israel is also getting nervous, thinking that Iran may really do it this week Second, the old BTC in Mentougou has started to move again. They tried to transfer money before, and now everyone guesses that they may have to move to another place in the next one or two months. This move will definitely shake the market. The third is the issue of purse that everyone is concerned about, and the inflation data is about to come out. Everyone is afraid that the number will be higher than expected, and the wallet will be even more deflated. If these three bad things really happen, then the current price of 48,800 may not be the lowest point of this round of decline. But then again, if Iran is just scaring people, and the BTC in Mentougou has not really moved, and the inflation data is still good, then our wallets may be able to swell again, and the price can still soar to 60,000. This week, we have to keep an eye on two major events. At 8:30 pm on Tuesday, the US PPI for July will be announced. If it is higher than expected, the market will fall; if it is lower, then we can be happy. And at 8:30 pm on Wednesday, the CPI will also be released. Just like the PPI, it is not good if it is high, but it is good if it is low. However, before this data comes out, the market usually has to tremble first, and get used to it. Generally speaking, the larger the CPI, the greater the inflation rate, which is specifically manifested as follows: When the increase in CPI>3%, we call it inflation When the increase in CPI>5%, we call it severe inflation #通胀 #CPI数据
This week, the market may encounter three unfavorable situations:
First, Iran may really take action and be unfriendly to Israel. You see, their missile forces started to conduct exercises in the west yesterday, and they will continue until Tuesday. Israel is also getting nervous, thinking that Iran may really do it this week

Second, the old BTC in Mentougou has started to move again. They tried to transfer money before, and now everyone guesses that they may have to move to another place in the next one or two months. This move will definitely shake the market.

The third is the issue of purse that everyone is concerned about, and the inflation data is about to come out. Everyone is afraid that the number will be higher than expected, and the wallet will be even more deflated. If these three bad things really happen, then the current price of 48,800 may not be the lowest point of this round of decline.
But then again, if Iran is just scaring people, and the BTC in Mentougou has not really moved, and the inflation data is still good, then our wallets may be able to swell again, and the price can still soar to 60,000.
This week, we have to keep an eye on two major events. At 8:30 pm on Tuesday, the US PPI for July will be announced. If it is higher than expected, the market will fall; if it is lower, then we can be happy. And at 8:30 pm on Wednesday, the CPI will also be released. Just like the PPI, it is not good if it is high, but it is good if it is low. However, before this data comes out, the market usually has to tremble first, and get used to it.
Generally speaking, the larger the CPI, the greater the inflation rate, which is specifically manifested as follows:
When the increase in CPI>3%, we call it inflation
When the increase in CPI>5%, we call it severe inflation
#通胀
#CPI数据
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Experts say: US inflation can be broken down into three parts 1. The rent is lagging and will definitely fall 2. Commodities China continues to export deflation 3. Wages: Now it is falling due to immigration. Immigration policies will be tightened, but economic demand is also declining, which will offset part of it. There may be some inflation #通胀 #美联储 #降息
Experts say: US inflation can be broken down into three parts
1. The rent is lagging and will definitely fall
2. Commodities China continues to export deflation
3. Wages: Now it is falling due to immigration. Immigration policies will be tightened, but economic demand is also declining, which will offset part of it. There may be some inflation

#通胀 #美联储 #降息
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Bullish
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Two weeks ago, Powell actively stated in an interview on "60 Minutes" that he was preparing to cut interest rates. Data last week and yesterday showed that U.S. CPI and PPI in January exceeded expectations. Hopefully the Fed will not make the same mistakes of the 1970s, which is the biggest risk to the market. $BTC $WLD $LPT #宏观 #美联储 #通胀 #CPI #降息
Two weeks ago, Powell actively stated in an interview on "60 Minutes" that he was preparing to cut interest rates.

Data last week and yesterday showed that U.S. CPI and PPI in January exceeded expectations.

Hopefully the Fed will not make the same mistakes of the 1970s, which is the biggest risk to the market.

$BTC $WLD $LPT

#宏观 #美联储 #通胀 #CPI #降息
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📈Market forecasts show that the U.S. Department of Commerce will announce a third-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 3% on Wednesday, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of expansion for the U.S. economy!💪 Meanwhile, the core PCE price index is expected to significantly slow down to 2.1%, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.📉 This data is crucial for Federal Reserve policy, as they use PCE as the primary inflation indicator. Although Citigroup predicts that GDP growth may be lower than expected at only 2.6%, meeting the inflation target is likely to reinforce the Federal Reserve's decision to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.💼 Keep a close eye on the next few days!📊 #经济 #美联储 #通胀 #GDP
📈Market forecasts show that the U.S. Department of Commerce will announce a third-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 3% on Wednesday, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of expansion for the U.S. economy!💪

Meanwhile, the core PCE price index is expected to significantly slow down to 2.1%, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.📉 This data is crucial for Federal Reserve policy, as they use PCE as the primary inflation indicator.

Although Citigroup predicts that GDP growth may be lower than expected at only 2.6%, meeting the inflation target is likely to reinforce the Federal Reserve's decision to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.💼

Keep a close eye on the next few days!📊

#经济 #美联储 #通胀 #GDP
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📊 The Federal Reserve has not yet declared victory in the fight against inflation, but it has shifted some focus to its dual mandate's "maximum employment" goal. Citi economist Veronica Clark points out that the non-farm payroll data for October will be crucial in validating the strong performance of the September employment figures. However, this data may not be sufficient to shift the market's concern back to the risks of an economic recession. 💼 It is worth noting that the October data will reflect the impact of certain special factors, including the Boeing strike and hurricanes, which may reduce employment by 70,000 to 80,000 jobs. Citi's expectations for this non-farm data are more moderate than the market's general expectations, forecasting an increase of 90,000 jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.23%. 📉 Additionally, Citi emphasizes that any downward revision of the September employment data may be more significant than in the past, as it will provide a clearer perspective for the Federal Reserve's policy assessment. These factors collectively influence the market's expectations for the economy's direction and bring uncertainty to future policy directions. #美联储 #非农数据 #就业 #通胀 #经济
📊 The Federal Reserve has not yet declared victory in the fight against inflation, but it has shifted some focus to its dual mandate's "maximum employment" goal.

Citi economist Veronica Clark points out that the non-farm payroll data for October will be crucial in validating the strong performance of the September employment figures. However, this data may not be sufficient to shift the market's concern back to the risks of an economic recession.

💼 It is worth noting that the October data will reflect the impact of certain special factors, including the Boeing strike and hurricanes, which may reduce employment by 70,000 to 80,000 jobs.

Citi's expectations for this non-farm data are more moderate than the market's general expectations, forecasting an increase of 90,000 jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.23%.

📉 Additionally, Citi emphasizes that any downward revision of the September employment data may be more significant than in the past, as it will provide a clearer perspective for the Federal Reserve's policy assessment.

These factors collectively influence the market's expectations for the economy's direction and bring uncertainty to future policy directions.

#美联储 #非农数据 #就业 #通胀 #经济
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In the upcoming Ethereum ETF approval process, we will focus on the latest developments of Ethereum ETF. SEC Chairman Gary Ganser recently made a positive comment on the listing process of Ethereum spot ETF. He believes that the process will be very smooth and will not encounter any problems. However, the only obstacle at present is that the brokerage has not yet submitted the final version, which has caused the exact listing date of Ethereum ETF to remain undecided. Although it has been predicted that the Ethereum ETF may be listed before July 4 (that is, the US Independence Day), as of June 27, the market has not received any official news. This makes the listing time of Ethereum ETF an unknown number, which has triggered widespread speculation and expectations in the market. Some people believe that once the Ethereum ETF is listed, it may have a positive impact on the trend of Ethereum and even the entire altcoin market. Given that the Bitcoin spot ETF was listed only half a year ago, and the unexpected approval and upcoming listing of the Ethereum ETF, the market is full of expectations and speculation. As for the Ethereum spot ETF after its listing, what will its market demand be like? It is something that is worth everyone's attention. $ETH {spot}(ETHUSDT) Another thing to note is that there is also a problem with the supply of Ethereum. Over the past 73 days, the inflow of Ethereum has been greater than the outflow, which is in stark contrast to the situation in the past few years when the newly generated Ethereum tokens were less than the burned tokens. This change means that the number of Ethereum circulating in the market is gradually increasing, that is, Ethereum has experienced inflation. The main reason for this phenomenon is that the transaction volume of Ethereum has dropped significantly in recent times, thereby reducing the amount of Ethereum burned. As a result, Ethereum has actually become an inflationary asset under the condition of low transaction demand and transaction volume. At the same time, although this situation has lasted for 73 days, there has been relatively little discussion about it in the market, which is in contrast to the previous hype when Ethereum was inflated. In theory, this should be big news. It does feel a bit wrong that this situation has lasted for so long without causing enough discussion. #以太坊 #通胀 #SEC #ETHETF If you know the reason, please leave your opinion in the comment section!
In the upcoming Ethereum ETF approval process, we will focus on the latest developments of Ethereum ETF.

SEC Chairman Gary Ganser recently made a positive comment on the listing process of Ethereum spot ETF. He believes that the process will be very smooth and will not encounter any problems. However, the only obstacle at present is that the brokerage has not yet submitted the final version, which has caused the exact listing date of Ethereum ETF to remain undecided.

Although it has been predicted that the Ethereum ETF may be listed before July 4 (that is, the US Independence Day), as of June 27, the market has not received any official news. This makes the listing time of Ethereum ETF an unknown number, which has triggered widespread speculation and expectations in the market.

Some people believe that once the Ethereum ETF is listed, it may have a positive impact on the trend of Ethereum and even the entire altcoin market. Given that the Bitcoin spot ETF was listed only half a year ago, and the unexpected approval and upcoming listing of the Ethereum ETF, the market is full of expectations and speculation. As for the Ethereum spot ETF after its listing, what will its market demand be like? It is something that is worth everyone's attention. $ETH

Another thing to note is that there is also a problem with the supply of Ethereum. Over the past 73 days, the inflow of Ethereum has been greater than the outflow, which is in stark contrast to the situation in the past few years when the newly generated Ethereum tokens were less than the burned tokens. This change means that the number of Ethereum circulating in the market is gradually increasing, that is, Ethereum has experienced inflation.

The main reason for this phenomenon is that the transaction volume of Ethereum has dropped significantly in recent times, thereby reducing the amount of Ethereum burned. As a result, Ethereum has actually become an inflationary asset under the condition of low transaction demand and transaction volume.

At the same time, although this situation has lasted for 73 days, there has been relatively little discussion about it in the market, which is in contrast to the previous hype when Ethereum was inflated. In theory, this should be big news. It does feel a bit wrong that this situation has lasted for so long without causing enough discussion. #以太坊 #通胀 #SEC #ETHETF
If you know the reason, please leave your opinion in the comment section!
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Why is the price of Bitcoin affected by US inflation? Yesterday evening, the US one-year inflation rate for May was announced as 3.5%, which was expected to be 3.2% and the previous value was 3.2%. As soon as the inflation data was announced, the price of Bitcoin immediately adjusted from 63,000 to 60,700. Now, for US stocks and Bitcoin, rising inflation is bad news and falling inflation is good news. Why is Bitcoin affected by the US inflation rate and various policies? I will explain it in plain language to avoid some newbies who have just entered the currency circle from not understanding. Now the volume of Bitcoin has made a qualitative leap from the past, and its market value has exceeded one trillion US dollars. As the market value continues to increase, it will be affected by the economic cycle more and more. 1. Let's first understand why the entire US stock market rises and why it falls from a long-term perspective? The most intuitive reason why the US stock market rises is the inflow and outflow of money in the market. If money flows in, it will rise and if it flows out, it will fall. 2. What mainly controls the money in the global market? The US dollar accounts for the largest proportion of global circulating money transactions, and the US dollar is mainly controlled by the Fed's interest rate hikes and cuts. 3. Why does the Fed raise and lower interest rates? The purpose of the US interest rate hike and rate cut is to control the healthy operation of the economic cycle. When the economy is prosperous and inflation is too high, interest rates need to be raised slowly. When the economy shrinks or deflation occurs, interest rates need to be lowered slowly to promote the economy. Therefore, the global economy will be affected by the Fed's interest rate hike and rate cut. Fed rate cut: bank loan interest rates are lowered, treasury bond interest rates are lowered, corporate loans increase, the number of employed people increases, and the amount of money circulating in the market increases... The final result is that the global economy is prosperous and there is more money in the market, and more money flows into the stock market, so the stock market will naturally rise and usher in a bull market. Fed rate hike: bank loan interest rates increase, treasury bond interest rates increase, corporate loans decrease, the number of unemployed people increases, and the amount of money circulating in the market decreases (when bank and treasury bond interest rates increase, everyone will take money to deposit in banks or buy treasury bonds)... The final result is that there is less money in the global market, and when money flows out of the market, prices will naturally fall or go sideways (there is a high probability that there will be no bull market). 4. At which stage of interest rate hikes and rate cuts are we in now, and what is the relationship between interest rate hikes and rate cuts and inflation? This economic cycle will start from July 27, 2023 when the Fed's interest rate is raised to a maximum of 5.Since 2015, the high interest rate of 5.5 has been maintained. The cycle of this interest rate hike is affected by the epidemic in 2021. The United States has printed too much money and inflation is serious, so it must be suppressed by raising interest rates. If inflation is well controlled, the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates soon, but now inflation is increasing instead of decreasing, so the interest rate cut is further postponed. Yesterday's inflation data exceeded expectations and caused Bitcoin to fall because: the inflation rate increased -> the Fed's interest rate cut expectations were postponed -> the bull market cycle was delayed -> the price of Bitcoin fell. In addition, Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive months before, and now it is the second month of the correction. It is very healthy to rise for seven months and then pull back for two or three months. No matter how Bitcoin fluctuates, hold your chips, and we will meet at the peak of the bull market. All opinions are personal opinions only and do not constitute any investment advice. Hold BTC, ETH, BNB, and let time accompany us to slowly become rich. #BTC #通胀 #美联储降息周期
Why is the price of Bitcoin affected by US inflation?

Yesterday evening, the US one-year inflation rate for May was announced as 3.5%, which was expected to be 3.2% and the previous value was 3.2%. As soon as the inflation data was announced, the price of Bitcoin immediately adjusted from 63,000 to 60,700. Now, for US stocks and Bitcoin, rising inflation is bad news and falling inflation is good news.

Why is Bitcoin affected by the US inflation rate and various policies? I will explain it in plain language to avoid some newbies who have just entered the currency circle from not understanding. Now the volume of Bitcoin has made a qualitative leap from the past, and its market value has exceeded one trillion US dollars. As the market value continues to increase, it will be affected by the economic cycle more and more.

1. Let's first understand why the entire US stock market rises and why it falls from a long-term perspective?

The most intuitive reason why the US stock market rises is the inflow and outflow of money in the market. If money flows in, it will rise and if it flows out, it will fall.

2. What mainly controls the money in the global market?
The US dollar accounts for the largest proportion of global circulating money transactions, and the US dollar is mainly controlled by the Fed's interest rate hikes and cuts.

3. Why does the Fed raise and lower interest rates?
The purpose of the US interest rate hike and rate cut is to control the healthy operation of the economic cycle. When the economy is prosperous and inflation is too high, interest rates need to be raised slowly. When the economy shrinks or deflation occurs, interest rates need to be lowered slowly to promote the economy. Therefore, the global economy will be affected by the Fed's interest rate hike and rate cut.

Fed rate cut: bank loan interest rates are lowered, treasury bond interest rates are lowered, corporate loans increase, the number of employed people increases, and the amount of money circulating in the market increases... The final result is that the global economy is prosperous and there is more money in the market, and more money flows into the stock market, so the stock market will naturally rise and usher in a bull market.
Fed rate hike: bank loan interest rates increase, treasury bond interest rates increase, corporate loans decrease, the number of unemployed people increases, and the amount of money circulating in the market decreases (when bank and treasury bond interest rates increase, everyone will take money to deposit in banks or buy treasury bonds)... The final result is that there is less money in the global market, and when money flows out of the market, prices will naturally fall or go sideways (there is a high probability that there will be no bull market).

4. At which stage of interest rate hikes and rate cuts are we in now, and what is the relationship between interest rate hikes and rate cuts and inflation?
This economic cycle will start from July 27, 2023 when the Fed's interest rate is raised to a maximum of 5.Since 2015, the high interest rate of 5.5 has been maintained. The cycle of this interest rate hike is affected by the epidemic in 2021. The United States has printed too much money and inflation is serious, so it must be suppressed by raising interest rates. If inflation is well controlled, the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates soon, but now inflation is increasing instead of decreasing, so the interest rate cut is further postponed.

Yesterday's inflation data exceeded expectations and caused Bitcoin to fall because: the inflation rate increased -> the Fed's interest rate cut expectations were postponed -> the bull market cycle was delayed -> the price of Bitcoin fell. In addition, Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive months before, and now it is the second month of the correction. It is very healthy to rise for seven months and then pull back for two or three months. No matter how Bitcoin fluctuates, hold your chips, and we will meet at the peak of the bull market. All opinions are personal opinions only and do not constitute any investment advice.

Hold BTC, ETH, BNB, and let time accompany us to slowly become rich.
#BTC #通胀 #美联储降息周期
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Cryptocurrency evening summary1. Israeli militants discovered a large Hezbollah weapons depot in southern Lebanon. According to Golani militants, when they entered southern Lebanon for the second time this week, they found a large weapons warehouse hidden by Hezbollah in a civilian building. In addition, Israel attacked Qana in southern Lebanon, killing one person and injuring 30 people. 2. Russia turns to North Korea to increase troops: Due to the heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia is facing a serious shortage of troops. It is reported that Russia is recruiting North Korean soldiers to join the war. How can North Korea explain this to its big brother, the United States? This question is left for friends to think about!

Cryptocurrency evening summary

1. Israeli militants discovered a large Hezbollah weapons depot in southern Lebanon. According to Golani militants, when they entered southern Lebanon for the second time this week, they found a large weapons warehouse hidden by Hezbollah in a civilian building. In addition, Israel attacked Qana in southern Lebanon, killing one person and injuring 30 people.
2. Russia turns to North Korea to increase troops: Due to the heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia is facing a serious shortage of troops. It is reported that Russia is recruiting North Korean soldiers to join the war. How can North Korea explain this to its big brother, the United States? This question is left for friends to think about!
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We should pay special attention to the inflation data in the next few months, because it determines the Fed's interest rate cut. Don't ignore these macro data. It may not have been important before, but now that we are approaching the Fed's interest rate cut, it has become extremely important. I have always reminded you before Ignoring it in the short term cannot be ignored now. Every inflation data needs to be interpreted with attention. #宏观经济 #通胀
We should pay special attention to the inflation data in the next few months, because it determines the Fed's interest rate cut. Don't ignore these macro data. It may not have been important before, but now that we are approaching the Fed's interest rate cut, it has become extremely important. I have always reminded you before Ignoring it in the short term cannot be ignored now. Every inflation data needs to be interpreted with attention. #宏观经济 #通胀
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