📊 The Federal Reserve has not yet declared victory in the fight against inflation, but it has shifted some focus to its dual mandate's "maximum employment" goal.
Citi economist Veronica Clark points out that the non-farm payroll data for October will be crucial in validating the strong performance of the September employment figures. However, this data may not be sufficient to shift the market's concern back to the risks of an economic recession.
💼 It is worth noting that the October data will reflect the impact of certain special factors, including the Boeing strike and hurricanes, which may reduce employment by 70,000 to 80,000 jobs.
Citi's expectations for this non-farm data are more moderate than the market's general expectations, forecasting an increase of 90,000 jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.23%.
📉 Additionally, Citi emphasizes that any downward revision of the September employment data may be more significant than in the past, as it will provide a clearer perspective for the Federal Reserve's policy assessment.
These factors collectively influence the market's expectations for the economy's direction and bring uncertainty to future policy directions.
