$VELODROME

Analysis of bull trap potential and trading scenarios:

1. Probability of Bull Trap (~70%):

Arguments:

- Money is being withdrawn strongly (-13.46M/24h) while the price is rising

- RSI > 60 indicates an overbought area, high risk of correction

- Order book is imbalanced with selling pressure (-24.20M)

- Price increase volatility lacks volume support

- Large investors are opening short positions

2. Trading Scenarios:

Main Scenario (70%):

- Price may test the range 0.23-0.24 and then drop sharply

- Target drop: 0.20 -> 0.185 (previous bottom)

- Stop loss: If it breaks 0.24 with high volume

Strategy:

- Short at the range 0.22-0.23

- Set a tight stop loss at 0.24

- Take profit in parts at: 0.20 and 0.185

- Avoid opening excessively large positions due to strong market volatility

Alternative Scenario (30%):

- Price breaks 0.24 with a spike in volume

- Positive money flow reversal

- RSI creates a bullish divergence

3. Important Price Levels:

Resistance:

- R1: 0.23 (most recent high)

- R2: 0.24 (psychological zone)

Support:

- S1: 0.20 (previous accumulation zone)

- S2: 0.185 (previous bottom)

4. Risk Management Recommendations:

- Do not FOMO buy at the current price level

- Only short when a trend reversal confirmation is present

- Keep position size small (2-3% of account)

- Set a tight stop loss

- Be ready to cut losses if the market reverses strongly

5. Signals to Watch:

- Spike in volume

- Changes in money flow

- Order book balance

- Movement of smart money

- Technical indicators: RSI, MACD, BB

Note: This is for reference only; investors need to have their own risk management strategy and should not copy trade mechanically.