I will analyze in detail about $USUAL /USDT:
1. Current status analysis:
- Current price: 1.0823 USDT (-3.35%)
- Adjusted from peak 1.6521, down about 34%
- EMA (7,25,99) is currently showing a short-term downtrend
- RSI(6) = 56.65 in the neutral zone
- MACD is giving weak signals
- Volume is decreasing, indicating selling pressure is weakening
- OBV is moving sideways, with no clear accumulation signs yet
2. Cash flow analysis:
- Long/Short ratio is quite balanced
- Large position cash flow in the last 5 days is negative (-46.34M)
- 24h cash flow shows strong selling pressure
- Buy/Sell orders have discrepancies, with total Sell value (239.69M) > Buy (225.96M)
3. Possible scenarios:
Scenario 1 - Positive (25% probability):
- Price recovers to the range of 1.20-1.30
- Condition: Strong volume increase along with resistance breakout
- Target: 1.20 -> 1.30 -> 1.40
- Stop loss: 1.00
Scenario 2 - Neutral (50% probability):
- Price fluctuates sideways in the range of 1.00-1.15
- Accumulates and balances out
- Support zone: 1.00-1.02
- Resistance zone: 1.12-1.15
Scenario 3 - Negative (25% probability):
- Price continues to adjust to the range of 0.90-0.95
- Test the old bottom 0.94
- Stop loss: 0.85
4. Recommendations:
Short term:
- Be cautious with new buy positions
- Can trade within a range with small positions
- Set tight stop loss to protect capital
- Wait for clear breakout signals from volume and price
Medium term:
- Monitor changes in cash flow and trading volume
- Wait for clear accumulation signals
- Manage risk with a minimum R:R ratio of 1:2
Note:
- The token is in a correction phase after a strong pump
- Investors need to be especially cautious with strong fluctuations
- Prioritize capital preservation and only participate with a small proportion