NOTE:
World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has invested in the following coins through Cow Protocol:
Ethereum (ETH): Buy 759.36 ETH for 2.5 million USDC. BeInCrypto
Ondo Finance (ONDO): Buy 134,216 ONDO for 250,000 USDC. Bitcoin Magazine
Chainlink (LINK): Buy 78,387 LINK for 2 million USD. Bitcoin Magazine
Aave (AAVE): Buy 5,886 AAVE for 1.91 million USD. Bitcoin Magazine
Ethena (ENA): Buy 741,687 ENA for a total value of 750,000 USD. Bitcoin Magazine
A. $COW
1. CURRENT ANALYSIS
Technical indicators:
- Current price: $0.802
- RSI: In the neutral zone
- MACD: Sideways trend, waiting for breakthrough signal
- Bollinger Bands: Price fluctuates near the middle band, average band width
Market pressure:
- Buy Pressure: 1.363 (positive)
- Buy/Sell Volume Ratio: 0.461 (selling pressure dominant)
- Order Book Imbalance: +0.154 (slight buy bias)
- Bid Wall: 1.596M USDT
- Ask Wall: 1.171M USDT
Volume & Liquidity:
- 24h volume: 38.57M USDT
- Volume Ratio is trending down (from 0.506 to 0.461)
- Liquidity concentrated around +/- 2% of current price
2. 24H FORECAST
A. Bullish scenario (40% probability):
- Targets: $0.85 (+6.0%), $0.88 (+9.7%), $0.92 (+14.7%)
- Confirmation conditions:
* Volume Ratio improves above 0.5
* Break MA20 with strong volume increase
* RSI breaks above 55
- Catalyst to watch:
* Fluctuations of BTC/ETH
* Project news and new partners
* Movements in important accumulation zones
B. Decline scenario (40% probability):
- Targets: $0.75 (-6.5%), $0.72 (-10.2%), $0.68 (-15.2%)
- Warning signs:
* Volume Ratio is below 0.5 and decreasing
* Selling pressure is dominant
* Need to monitor reactions at support zone $0.75
- Main risks:
* Overall market sentiment deteriorates
* Sell pressure continues to persist
C. Sideways scenario (20% probability):
- Fluctuation range: $0.78 - $0.82
- Characteristics:
* Order book is balanced
* Average volume, no spikes
* RSI fluctuates around 45-55
3. TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Strategy: FUTURES Trading
- Leverage: 2x (reduced due to strong selling pressure)
- Position Size: 2% portfolio
Entry Strategy:
- 30% @ $0.802 (current price)
- 40% @ $0.795 (pull back)
- 30% > $0.85 (breakout confirmation)
Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: $0.765 (-4.6%)
- Risk:Reward = 1:3
- Daily loss limit: 1% portfolio
Take Profit:
- TP1: 40% @ $0.85 (+6.0%)
- TP2: 40% @ $0.88 (+9.7%)
- TP3: 20% @ $0.92 (+14.7%)
Order opening conditions:
1. Volume Ratio improves above 0.5
2. RSI breaks above 55
3. Volume increases above MA20
Stop loss conditions:
1. Break below $0.765 with high volume
2. Volume Ratio drops below 0.4
3. Market structure broken
4. MONITOR AND ADJUST
Factors to monitor:
1. Volume Ratio fluctuations
2. Changes in order book imbalance
3. Price action at key S/R zones
4. RSI and MACD movements
5. Overall market sentiment
Conditions for strategy adjustment:
- Increase leverage if Volume Ratio > 0.6
- Reduce position size if volatility increases sharply
- Switch to spot trading if the market is too volatile
B. $ENA
1. CURRENT ANALYSIS
Basic parameters:
- Current price: $1.0578
- 24h volatility: -15.50%
- Volatility (72h): 20.43%
Technical indicators:
- MACD: 0.141 (Signal: 0.054) → Bullish trend
- MA20: $0.613 → Price is trading above MA20
- Positive MACD crossover (MACD > Signal)
Market pressure:
- Buy Pressure: 2.757 (very strong)
- Buy/Sell Volume Ratio: 0.475 (selling pressure dominant)
- Order Book Imbalance: +0.468 (tilting towards buying)
- Bid Wall: 3.80M USDT (strong)
- Ask Wall: 1.38M USDT (weaker)
Volume Analysis:
- Current volume: 275.59M USDT
- Average volume 72h: 1.04B USDT
- Volume is significantly below average
2. 24H FORECAST
A. Recovery scenario (50% probability):
- Price target:
* TP1: $1.15 (+8.7%)
* TP2: $1.25 (+18.2%)
* TP3: $1.35 (+27.6%)
- Confirmation conditions:
* Volume increases back to average levels
* Buy/Sell Volume Ratio improves above 0.5
* Stay above MA20
- Catalyst:
* Buy pressure is very strong (2.757)
* Large bid wall (3.80M USDT)
* Positive MACD crossover
B. Continuing decline scenario (30% probability):
- Price target:
* S1: $0.95 (-10.2%)
* S2: $0.85 (-19.6%)
- Warning signs:
* Low volume ratio (0.475)
* Current volume is significantly below average
* High volatility (20.43%)
C. Accumulation Scenario (20% probability):
- Range: $1.00 - $1.15
- Characteristics:
* Volume remains low
* Buy/Sell ratio fluctuating around 0.5
* Order book is gradually balancing
3. TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Strategy: FUTURES LONG
- Leverage: 3x (due to strong buy pressure)
- Position Size: 2% portfolio
Entry Strategy:
- 40% @ $1.058 (current price)
- 30% @ $1.02 (pullback)
- 30% @ $0.98 (deep pullback)
Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: $0.95 (-10.2%)
- Risk:Reward = 1:2.5
- Max daily loss: 1.5% portfolio
Take Profit Strategy:
- TP1: 30% @ $1.15 (+8.7%)
- TP2: 40% @ $1.25 (+18.2%)
- TP3: 30% @ $1.35 (+27.6%)
Activation conditions:
1. Volume increases above MA20
2. Buy/Sell Ratio improves > 0.5
3. Maintain the current bid wall
4. POSITION MANAGEMENT
Exit order conditions:
- Break below $0.95 with high volume
- Buy pressure drops below 2.0
- Volume ratio drops below 0.4
Adjust strategy:
- Increase leverage if buy pressure > 3.0
- Reduce size if volatility > 25%
- Cut loss if bid wall is lost
Monitor:
1. Volume and volume ratio trends
2. Strength of the bid wall
3. Buy pressure trend
4. Overall market sentiment
Special note:
- Volatility is high (20.43%)
- Low volume needs improvement
- Very good buy pressure is a positive point
- Need to be cautious with current selling pressure
