Important for tomorrow
I am sorry I didn’t mention this in my previous posts, I was not aware of it.
I was researching why stocks and crypto saw a sudden drop earlier, I think it was based on revised employment data that will come out tomorrow.
Tomorrow (21/08) the Bureau of labour statistics will release the revised employment data from March 2023-April 2024.
Many expect this data will be revised down a lot(360k-1M), some are predicting it could be revised to show as many as 1 million fewer jobs were created in the 12 month timeframe
The market is already on edge due to the current unemployment numbers triggering the sahm rule.
If the revised number comes out much lower tomorrow then this will show that the labour market was deteriorating well before the current data showed, it could fuel recession fears and fears the FED are behind the curve.
BLS is a government agency and this is an election year, I don’t know how manipulated these revised numbers could be, it would look terrible for the democrats if 1 million less jobs were actually created.
If this revised number is much lower then the markets could see a sell off, especially crypto.
Im not predicting anything, the revised number could be good for the markets fears, I just want to point out this volatility risk.
I have no clue how the wider market will react to differences in the revised number, if it’s as bad as 1 million less then it could be bearish, I imagine any decrease of 500k or more could be bearish, this would be the largest revision downwards in 15 years.
The market wants interest rate cut but not recession readings, it’s a fine balance, it’s not worth trying to predict for trading purposes, especially not in crypto.
Based on this uncertainty and the FOMC minutes being released tomorrow I would advise caution around short term trading.
I don’t know what time these revised figures will be released, I could not find the time and it’s not shown on the economic calendar sites I use.
Trade safely
✌️