This title might sound like clickbait, it is really not, all things considered.
The labour market data tomorrow has the potential to skyrocket volatility.
Any shock readings will have a huge impact on crypto price, that could be a Bullish or bearish impact, the market is looking for confirmation of a soft landing in this data, the numbers will need to be good to turn the current crypto sentiment bullish.
If the numbers come out as forecast it could still be bearish for ârisk onâ crypto.
The Crypto market needs a big win in the jobs data to increase the appetite for higher risk assets like crypto.
So far this week the data has been mostly bad, the pesky manufacturing and jobs data is not conforming to the FEDs soft loft landing narrative.
Since Tuesday the markets have sold off, there are a variety of factors that have contributed to this, mostly it leads back to economic concerns.
Earlier the decent Services PMI slowed the sell pressure, also the weekly unemployment claims didnât shock, they remained bad, just not fire sale bad.
If the labour data is bad tomorrow (not over inflated), the fire sale could begin.
The employment data coming out tomorrow is from the BLS (Bureau labour statistics)
The BLS are the same government agency who revised jobs down by 818,000 a couple weeks ago.(April 2023-May 2024)
How accurate tomorrowâs data will be is anyoneâs guess.
Something worth noting,đ
The commissioner for labour statistics at the BLS (Government agency) is Dr.Erika McEntarfer.
She was nominated for the role by Joe Biden in July 2023, she was confirmed for the role this year, January 2024.
Being nominated by a president is normal, what is not normal is how the jobs data has been consistently inflated and then later revised down whilst Erika McEntarfer has been commissioner.
In her time as acting/official commissioner the combined monthly job reports from April 2023-May 2024 was later revised down by 818,000 (The lowest revision downwards in 15 years)
These previously unrevised (inflated) jobs numbers have been consistently cited by Biden and Powell in the past year to show the US economy is strong.
The revised numbers are swept under the rug.
Every jobs report over the last year has later been revised down (never upđ€), somehow the market still takes the initial jobs reports at face value as if they are accurate, recent history has shown they are far from accurate.
I am sure tomorrow will be no different, the market will take the numbers at face value.
As mentioned before, all readings tomorrow are reported by the BLS, I highlight this because they are the source, if they can manipulate one set of data it is likely they can manipulate all data they report.
Who knows if tomorrowâs numbers will accurately reflect what is really going on in the US labour market.
The BLS, like the FED or the SEC are all supposed to be non-partisan and not swayed by politics.
Letâs not even pretend that is even remotely true.
At this point nothing would shock me, tomorrowâs jobs numbers are critical for the Fed, the economy and the elections.
Trying to predict the outcome is basically trying to predict how corrupt the system is, we all know these jobs numbers are not accurate, also the inaccuracy is always higher.
The elections are near, people in power will want to keep their jobs after the elections, I am sure a lot of political allegiances are being made.
Joe Biden has been ousted by the Dems, who knows if the people he put in power (like the BLS commissioner) were allied to him or the democrats, who knows if they have switched allegiances.
All of the key figures at government agencies are backing a horse in this race, whether that be on the side-line or through manipulating data is just speculation.
Basically for the election campaign,
Harris needs the jobs data to be good tomorrow, much higher non-farm, lower unemployment rate.
Trump needs the data to be accurate and not be manipulated.
From the research I have done, it is predicted the numbers will be mostly as forecast,
Average Earning 0.3%
Non-Farm 155k-160k
Unemployment rate 4.2%
It would not shock me to see a Non-farm number that is way off, around 100k-120k (more accurate) or even inflated as high as 200k-250k (there could be some lipstick left for this pig)
Trying to predict any continued price action before or around this data is near impossible.
We might have volatility before the NYSE closes, later the Asia markets will try front run (anticipate) what they think the London/NY sessions will do tomorrow based on the jobs data.
Tomorrow is Friday, this will increase the volatility throughout the day as large funds react to the data and balance their positions before the market closes.
It is not worth trying to predict the outcome of tomorrow with high leverage or margin.
I am 100% sure we will see large whipsaw price action in the lead up and following the jobs report.
There is a lot of liquidity within 2k of the current Bitcoin price, it is primed for large traders to manipulate.
Volume and open interest is low, any whale manipulation could have a large effect on short term price.
Trade Safely
Peace âïž
P.S If you like my posts then please give them a like, it helps me know if my posts are helpful and worth the time I put into them.đ€
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