LIVE尚哥的加密逻辑
@Square-Creator-5cb397447
宏观左右世界，逻辑推演未来。🐧👗：756339603
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At present, I personally think that: 5W8 is the bottom of this wave of big cakes, just like 7W2 fell down and 5W8 to 6W is the retracement limit!
Similarly, I personally think that the macro-level non-agricultural data tomorrow night will bring good news.
Just like before the decline, I subjectively thought that the European interest rate cut will strengthen the Fed's confrontational logic, bring about a surge in the US dollar index, and be bearish on risky assets.
No one can accurately predict the market trend, it's all about the effectiveness of the logic!
#非农就业数据即将公布
#比特币走势分析
Similarly, I personally think that the macro-level non-agricultural data tomorrow night will bring good news.
Just like before the decline, I subjectively thought that the European interest rate cut will strengthen the Fed's confrontational logic, bring about a surge in the US dollar index, and be bearish on risky assets.
No one can accurately predict the market trend, it's all about the effectiveness of the logic!
#非农就业数据即将公布
#比特币走势分析
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Crypto 100X Project Research (II): Institutional Betting
The direction in which the media guides market expectations often indicates the bets of investors behind the scenes;
The public calls made by institutions are either misleading or traps.
When they place a bet with real money and find a violent period of pricing, that is when investors charge!
1. CB’s cry: CB 2024 Outlook
The report highlights the following points:
- Crypto Market Overview
- BTC/ETH market analysis
- Promising future track
1. After experiencing a cold winter, the market began to recover. The total actual market value of the entire cryptocurrencies doubled. This can be seen as a clear signal that the market is gradually emerging from the long "cryptocurrency winter". With the rebound of the global M2 money supply, the entire cryptocurrencies are positively correlated with M2. Combined with the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 24 years and the QE brought about by the economic slowdown, the incremental funds in the market will benefit risky assets.
The public calls made by institutions are either misleading or traps.
When they place a bet with real money and find a violent period of pricing, that is when investors charge!
1. CB’s cry: CB 2024 Outlook
The report highlights the following points:
- Crypto Market Overview
- BTC/ETH market analysis
- Promising future track
1. After experiencing a cold winter, the market began to recover. The total actual market value of the entire cryptocurrencies doubled. This can be seen as a clear signal that the market is gradually emerging from the long "cryptocurrency winter". With the rebound of the global M2 money supply, the entire cryptocurrencies are positively correlated with M2. Combined with the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 24 years and the QE brought about by the economic slowdown, the incremental funds in the market will benefit risky assets.
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Today's market analysis:
Since the high point of 73777 on March 14, the big cake has been shaken for 3 and a half months, and the cake has fluctuated between 56500-73777. The cottage has been bleeding. How is the blood flowing? The daily line retraced to M120 or even M200, and the retracing to M60 is considered strong. This is the effect of Wall Street institutions entering the market, and the difficulty of making profits is comparable to hell. At this time, the allocation of core assets is particularly important. The experience of the short-sighted behavior of hot cottages in the past bull market is actually a way to seek stability, especially for investors who are halfway on the train. Of course, there are also some representative assets of some tracks that are stable with old bulls pulling the car.
Whether the main force will switch to the market-making style in the second half of the bull market is still unknown.
Today's closing is above 63500, you can continue to be bullish. If it is still a Tianma meteor hammer, remember to wear a helmet when trading. The pressure above is 66000. Except for those with pricing expectations.
If it goes down, it will inevitably test again, 60,000? 50,000? Or even lower?
When will it reverse? New bullish factors are priced in:
1. The approval of non-securities crypto asset ETFs is good news, and Ethereum is currently being priced;
Solara is clearly defined as a security by the SEC, and the application for a trust is used to pull the market up... This is capital protecting its own calf.
2. The positive effects of macro expectations:
The advance of interest rate cut expectations, whether it is the guidance of the Federal Reserve, the expectations of large institutions, or the bets on the interest rate window, as long as it is in advance, it is a positive.
3. Regulatory relaxation of ETF allocation by traditional financial institutions:
Don’t rush to question it. Bitcoin will definitely usher in an allocation demand similar to that of gold, with buyers coming from traditional financial institutions and even sovereign funds;
At present, the increase in ETFs still depends on the performance of the US stock market, or the performance of the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations
4. New highs in US stocks, especially related crypto stocks:
For example, CB, mining company stocks, Open ai, Nvidia, etc.;
New highs in US stocks can bring about capital spillover
New highs in related stocks will be related to pricing in crypto
How can we clearly confirm the short-term pull-up in this wave?
Whales’ oil borrowing and oil rushing!
#BTC走势预测
#美股超话
Since the high point of 73777 on March 14, the big cake has been shaken for 3 and a half months, and the cake has fluctuated between 56500-73777. The cottage has been bleeding. How is the blood flowing? The daily line retraced to M120 or even M200, and the retracing to M60 is considered strong. This is the effect of Wall Street institutions entering the market, and the difficulty of making profits is comparable to hell. At this time, the allocation of core assets is particularly important. The experience of the short-sighted behavior of hot cottages in the past bull market is actually a way to seek stability, especially for investors who are halfway on the train. Of course, there are also some representative assets of some tracks that are stable with old bulls pulling the car.
Whether the main force will switch to the market-making style in the second half of the bull market is still unknown.
Today's closing is above 63500, you can continue to be bullish. If it is still a Tianma meteor hammer, remember to wear a helmet when trading. The pressure above is 66000. Except for those with pricing expectations.
If it goes down, it will inevitably test again, 60,000? 50,000? Or even lower?
When will it reverse? New bullish factors are priced in:
1. The approval of non-securities crypto asset ETFs is good news, and Ethereum is currently being priced;
Solara is clearly defined as a security by the SEC, and the application for a trust is used to pull the market up... This is capital protecting its own calf.
2. The positive effects of macro expectations:
The advance of interest rate cut expectations, whether it is the guidance of the Federal Reserve, the expectations of large institutions, or the bets on the interest rate window, as long as it is in advance, it is a positive.
3. Regulatory relaxation of ETF allocation by traditional financial institutions:
Don’t rush to question it. Bitcoin will definitely usher in an allocation demand similar to that of gold, with buyers coming from traditional financial institutions and even sovereign funds;
At present, the increase in ETFs still depends on the performance of the US stock market, or the performance of the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations
4. New highs in US stocks, especially related crypto stocks:
For example, CB, mining company stocks, Open ai, Nvidia, etc.;
New highs in US stocks can bring about capital spillover
New highs in related stocks will be related to pricing in crypto
How can we clearly confirm the short-term pull-up in this wave?
Whales’ oil borrowing and oil rushing!
#BTC走势预测
#美股超话
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Crypto 100X Project Research (I)
1. Summary of the patterns of 100X cryptocurrencies in the last bull market
1. Just like the iteration of leading technology stocks in the US stock market, each round of crypto 100X projects will rush from obscurity to the top 100 in market value, and the replacement rate of the top 100 in market value is about 70%. It is precisely because of this high-speed iteration that the crypto industry is booming.
2. From the perspective of market capitalization ranking, in March 2020, 61 100X coins were born among the top 600 currencies by market capitalization. There are 11 100X coins born among the top 100 currencies by market capitalization, accounting for 18%; old coins have new narratives, which is also a new growth outbreak point. For example, BNB and BSC have broken away from the single exchange token attribute; among the top 100-300 currencies by market capitalization, 21 100X coins were born, accounting for 34.4%. Among the top 300-600 currencies by market capitalization, 22 were born, accounting for 36%. Overall, among the top 300 by market capitalization, a total of 32 100X coins were born, accounting for 10.6% of the total, one in ten.
1. Just like the iteration of leading technology stocks in the US stock market, each round of crypto 100X projects will rush from obscurity to the top 100 in market value, and the replacement rate of the top 100 in market value is about 70%. It is precisely because of this high-speed iteration that the crypto industry is booming.
2. From the perspective of market capitalization ranking, in March 2020, 61 100X coins were born among the top 600 currencies by market capitalization. There are 11 100X coins born among the top 100 currencies by market capitalization, accounting for 18%; old coins have new narratives, which is also a new growth outbreak point. For example, BNB and BSC have broken away from the single exchange token attribute; among the top 100-300 currencies by market capitalization, 21 100X coins were born, accounting for 34.4%. Among the top 300-600 currencies by market capitalization, 22 were born, accounting for 36%. Overall, among the top 300 by market capitalization, a total of 32 100X coins were born, accounting for 10.6% of the total, one in ten.
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It is difficult to find a sector with a retracement of less than 50%.
The participation of institutions has raised the difficulty of Shanzhai’s profitability to an epic level.
It focuses on a pull-up rhythm and a retracement rhythm.
It does not follow the historical routine at all.
Old investors are all confused.
If you do not have a large position to configure core assets,
or if Shanzhai does not withdraw in time after a big rise,
it is very uncomfortable now.
Promise me,
play spot trading and keep the core asset standard.
If Shanzhai makes money, at least the floating profit can be used to buy big and small cakes.
Because they are slow,
but they can cross the cycle and will not bury investors so much.
The core assets pull two or three rounds, and Shanzhai’s high multiple is realized.
But the deterministic security is unmatched by Shanzhai.
That is, slow is fast!
#比特币走势分析 #山寨现货布局如何布局
The participation of institutions has raised the difficulty of Shanzhai’s profitability to an epic level.
It focuses on a pull-up rhythm and a retracement rhythm.
It does not follow the historical routine at all.
Old investors are all confused.
If you do not have a large position to configure core assets,
or if Shanzhai does not withdraw in time after a big rise,
it is very uncomfortable now.
Promise me,
play spot trading and keep the core asset standard.
If Shanzhai makes money, at least the floating profit can be used to buy big and small cakes.
Because they are slow,
but they can cross the cycle and will not bury investors so much.
The core assets pull two or three rounds, and Shanzhai’s high multiple is realized.
But the deterministic security is unmatched by Shanzhai.
That is, slow is fast!
#比特币走势分析 #山寨现货布局如何布局
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Only 20% of the time in the market is one-sided (effective time), and the rest can be called garbage time!
If there is no trading opportunity, we can rest:
Drink tea, grow flowers, read books, look at beautiful women/handsome men, drink with friends, spend time with family...
Don't embarrass yourself when there is no opportunity in the market.
Wait for new pricing factors to generate trading opportunities before doing it!
Come, tell me in the comment area, which copycat has trapped you?
If there is no trading opportunity, we can rest:
Drink tea, grow flowers, read books, look at beautiful women/handsome men, drink with friends, spend time with family...
Don't embarrass yourself when there is no opportunity in the market.
Wait for new pricing factors to generate trading opportunities before doing it!
Come, tell me in the comment area, which copycat has trapped you?
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How do ordinary people achieve financial freedom?
Rely on [fate]!
There are too many realistic thresholds to cross for financial freedom
Simply put, the process of transition:
[Advanced cognition] also requires [endowment] to leverage ["leverage"], otherwise the [plate] that can be [played by the banker] is very limited.
In the process of constantly expanding the plate, there will be many factors other than cognition and endowment, which are completely unpredictable, and some are even completely uncontrollable.
This is [destiny]!
Those legendary lives, in addition to their own outstanding qualities, also need God's favor.
Even if you are born as a mountain, you still need to work hard to surpass the sky in order to seek strategic advantages in the same level!
At what age do most ordinary people awaken their cognition?
#VanEck提交首个SolanaETF
Rely on [fate]!
There are too many realistic thresholds to cross for financial freedom
Simply put, the process of transition:
[Advanced cognition] also requires [endowment] to leverage ["leverage"], otherwise the [plate] that can be [played by the banker] is very limited.
In the process of constantly expanding the plate, there will be many factors other than cognition and endowment, which are completely unpredictable, and some are even completely uncontrollable.
This is [destiny]!
Those legendary lives, in addition to their own outstanding qualities, also need God's favor.
Even if you are born as a mountain, you still need to work hard to surpass the sky in order to seek strategic advantages in the same level!
At what age do most ordinary people awaken their cognition?
#VanEck提交首个SolanaETF
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How can ordinary people achieve financial freedom?
It depends on fate, but it also depends on how much better the heavens are.
#VanEck提交首个SolanaETF
It depends on fate, but it also depends on how much better the heavens are.
#VanEck提交首个SolanaETF
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[Get the wealth code under the expected pricing of Ethereum ETF at zero cost]
SEC continues to strengthen the approval expectations of Ethereum ETF
Sun Ge continues to go all-in on Ethereum
The pledge rate on the Ethereum chain continues to rise
....
The Ethereum system is about to launch
Follow me here, and follow my namesake Weibo (after 48 hours), and take a screenshot of this tweet on Weibo to get the full version of Shangge's in-depth research and selection of the current Ethereum asset map worth going all-in!
My friend, please make sure you are on the Ethereum violent asset car when the Yitai ETF is launched!
#以太坊ETF批准预期 #以太坊ETF审批预期 #以太坊和美国证券交易SEC #BTC走势预测
SEC continues to strengthen the approval expectations of Ethereum ETF
Sun Ge continues to go all-in on Ethereum
The pledge rate on the Ethereum chain continues to rise
....
The Ethereum system is about to launch
Follow me here, and follow my namesake Weibo (after 48 hours), and take a screenshot of this tweet on Weibo to get the full version of Shangge's in-depth research and selection of the current Ethereum asset map worth going all-in!
My friend, please make sure you are on the Ethereum violent asset car when the Yitai ETF is launched!
#以太坊ETF批准预期 #以太坊ETF审批预期 #以太坊和美国证券交易SEC #BTC走势预测
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Binance has many coins that are only listed on contracts but not on spot. What is the expected logic?
1. These assets have already been listed on small exchanges and have been recognized by the market
2. Binance chooses not to list them temporarily to protect its users from being cut, but recognizes the value of the project
3. When the subsequent price is appropriate, choose to list them on spot
#币安上新
1. These assets have already been listed on small exchanges and have been recognized by the market
2. Binance chooses not to list them temporarily to protect its users from being cut, but recognizes the value of the project
3. When the subsequent price is appropriate, choose to list them on spot
#币安上新
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Why am I optimistic about LISTA?
LSDFI Ethereum already has BSC ecosystem to complete
L1 has a competitive ecosystem, so it should be completed
The difference is whether the development of the ecosystem is strong
The corresponding prospects of the subdivided track
Because similar items are generally in a competitive relationship
For example, Solara raises dogs every day to get gold coins, and Ethereum is scolded very badly
Now the pricing of Ethereum ETF expectations, everyone begins to doubt whether Solara is dead
In fact, from another perspective, it may be easier to understand the track value of the LISTA project
Three cakes continue to launch new projects. Although they eat and take, it is inevitable that the five fingers are not in the same order
The key point is that the price push of BNB is a pulse-like impact on supply and demand
LSDFI is using long-term returns to lock the circulation rate, especially many old L1s are already fully circulated
From the perspective of supply and demand, LSDFI locks the circulation rate, forming a mechanism expectation of low supply in a large cycle
With the resonance of expectations, the price push, the mechanism expectation of low circulation and low supply Funding has become a reality
A spacecraft has headed straight for the moon
#再质押生态
#bsc链
#币安优质项目
#币安HODLer空投
#百倍币计划
LSDFI Ethereum already has BSC ecosystem to complete
L1 has a competitive ecosystem, so it should be completed
The difference is whether the development of the ecosystem is strong
The corresponding prospects of the subdivided track
Because similar items are generally in a competitive relationship
For example, Solara raises dogs every day to get gold coins, and Ethereum is scolded very badly
Now the pricing of Ethereum ETF expectations, everyone begins to doubt whether Solara is dead
In fact, from another perspective, it may be easier to understand the track value of the LISTA project
Three cakes continue to launch new projects. Although they eat and take, it is inevitable that the five fingers are not in the same order
The key point is that the price push of BNB is a pulse-like impact on supply and demand
LSDFI is using long-term returns to lock the circulation rate, especially many old L1s are already fully circulated
From the perspective of supply and demand, LSDFI locks the circulation rate, forming a mechanism expectation of low supply in a large cycle
With the resonance of expectations, the price push, the mechanism expectation of low circulation and low supply Funding has become a reality
A spacecraft has headed straight for the moon
#再质押生态
#bsc链
#币安优质项目
#币安HODLer空投
#百倍币计划
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The current macro pricing logic of the big pie
A wave of retracement, the big cake stepped back to the M200 of the daily K, and the copycats were bleeding.
Which macro-pricing factors will be bearish on the trend of Bitcoin in the future?
1. The earnings reports of the six US stock sisters are lower than expected or other equivalent negative events
On June 24, an equivalent negative event was priced in: OpenAI CTO GPT-5 is expected to be launched at the end of 2025 or early 2026; the delay of the version update accelerated the decline of Nvidia and TSMC, triggering a sharp drop in the Nasdaq. Related to the 7.7% drop in the Bitcoin ETF
2. The Fed’s expected rate cut is postponed again to the first quarter of next year. The market has already fully priced in a rate cut in December.
Which macro-pricing factors will be bearish on the trend of Bitcoin in the future?
1. The earnings reports of the six US stock sisters are lower than expected or other equivalent negative events
On June 24, an equivalent negative event was priced in: OpenAI CTO GPT-5 is expected to be launched at the end of 2025 or early 2026; the delay of the version update accelerated the decline of Nvidia and TSMC, triggering a sharp drop in the Nasdaq. Related to the 7.7% drop in the Bitcoin ETF
2. The Fed’s expected rate cut is postponed again to the first quarter of next year. The market has already fully priced in a rate cut in December.
See original
Federal Reserve: All 31 banks tested passed the annual stress test, and the US stock market is not afraid of a halving
Federal Reserve: All 31 banks tested passed the annual stress test, and the US stock market is not afraid of a halving
He has the final say on whether the banking industry passes or fails the stress test
Is he afraid of the U.S. stock market being cut in half? Does he want the votes of the beautiful voters?
The Fed said this to express that it can handle high interest rates.
also
Europe cuts interest rates to get cheap money for capital. One of the operations for those willing to go overseas for arbitrage is to short US stocks
Since the United States has decided to maintain a high interest rate policy
Then the opponent’s defense line is established: buyback!
It is also a way to indirectly convey the risks of US stocks
This is consistent with one of the possible negative factors mentioned in my article "Overnight, the price of pie fell sharply, what will happen next?"
He has the final say on whether the banking industry passes or fails the stress test
Is he afraid of the U.S. stock market being cut in half? Does he want the votes of the beautiful voters?
The Fed said this to express that it can handle high interest rates.
also
Europe cuts interest rates to get cheap money for capital. One of the operations for those willing to go overseas for arbitrage is to short US stocks
Since the United States has decided to maintain a high interest rate policy
Then the opponent’s defense line is established: buyback!
It is also a way to indirectly convey the risks of US stocks
This is consistent with one of the possible negative factors mentioned in my article "Overnight, the price of pie fell sharply, what will happen next?"
See original
Arbitrage opportunities and logic of the PolitiFi sector
A work that breaks virginity, just feed it directly.
Share a short-term sector opportunity and logic.
2024 is the year of the US presidential election. Historically, the performance of US stocks in US presidential election years has been relatively impressive. The competition between the two parties for votes will force the ruling party to be short-sighted (ignoring economic fundamentals) and use administrative means to push up US stocks in order to gain more votes.
From July to the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve will have four interest rate windows. The interest rate meeting on July 31 is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged. There will be interest rate meetings on September 18, November 6 and December 18, and the US election day is November 5.
Share a short-term sector opportunity and logic.
2024 is the year of the US presidential election. Historically, the performance of US stocks in US presidential election years has been relatively impressive. The competition between the two parties for votes will force the ruling party to be short-sighted (ignoring economic fundamentals) and use administrative means to push up US stocks in order to gain more votes.
From July to the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve will have four interest rate windows. The interest rate meeting on July 31 is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged. There will be interest rate meetings on September 18, November 6 and December 18, and the US election day is November 5.
