Attention to Binance assets of 5wu or more
Binance contract commissions of assets of 5wu or more will be fully refunded (40 in the first month and 30 in the second month. Those with high handling fees can also register once a month, and the backend can be reconciled to ensure the authenticity of the data)
I am brushing the volume to get Binance rewards, you are saving handling fees, if you are interested, come

Summary and outlook before the Fed's July meeting:

1. Rate cuts twice this year. But inflation will not be solved all at once, and the rate cut speed next year is questionable

2. Economic fundamentals are mild, with a soft landing

3. The issuance of long-term U.S. bonds is difficult to control, and long-term interest rates will ignore rate cuts and remain high for a long time

4. Asset differentiation: bearish for liquid assets, bullish for profitable companies

5. The profits of large companies in 24 years can continue to be amazing, but at some point in 25 years, they will not be able to match the increasingly high expectations

6. By then, the market needs to truly "reset" the mindless gains since last year

And this process will not be as fast as the two adjustments this year, it will take time. There will definitely be a tightening of U.S. dollar liquidity, and then it will be liquid assets and marginal assets that will fall more. Except for BTC, most coins should be 5-10% of the current price

7. Whether the Fed pays for the stock market depends on inflation: and there are too many inflation factors, such as immigration, Sino-US trade, etc., and the overall attitude of the two parties is that the Republicans have high inflation and the Democratic countries are in chaos.

BTC is the leader, ETH is the second and has a wide range of applications. However, BTC's market value is still more than 3 times that of ETH for a long time.
Ordi is the leader of the Bitcoin ecosystem, and SATs is considered the second and only a few companies are empowering it. The market value of Ordi should be more than 5 times that of SATs. In this way, if SATs can be stabilized at 35, then Ordi should be stabilized at around 175. In this way, Ordi is very cost-effective

The total market value of the global stock market is about $109 trillion.

As of July 2024, the total market value of the global cryptocurrency market is about $2.5 trillion. It still occupies a very small share. It is not even as much as an Nvidia.

The cryptocurrency market is the most liquid and open financial market in the world.
There will be more and more Web3 companies, and innovation will be late, but it will not stagnate.

In terms of revenue profit margin, many Web3 companies far exceed general listed companies, while the market value is only a fraction of the other party.

From the perspective of global investment, the cryptocurrency market has made more and more people aware of it, and BTC has become part of asset allocation.

So how can Web3 companies that generate cash flow or have innovative narratives not have anyone spend money to buy them as investment targets?

When these altcoins pull the market and the sectors rotate, the flywheel of money-making effect and traffic will rotate rapidly.

How can there be no altcoin season?
It's nothing more than a lack of liquidity now. Not pulling the market does not mean that there is no value.

The rise of local dogs is a manifestation of lack of liquidity and the contempt for some stupid VCs.

Speculators are in power and market sentiment is impetuous. This is a process, not the end.

#比特币大会

Everyone thought that ETH would follow the old path of BTC, falling and then pulling up. The actual situation is that ETH will fall first, then go sideways, and then fall again, and it will continue until October before it starts to improve, but more than 99% of the leeks will die in the meantime.
Those who borrowed to buy the bottom spot and those who do contracts will be killed first, and then those who unlocked the vc and smashed the market will kill another batch.
There will be a big bull market, but it will not break out until 2025. The ultimate goal of the banker is to keep the four-year bull-bear cycle unchanged.
#美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易

Regarding the iteration and evolution of the view on altcoins:
Old people who have experienced more than two cycles of the currency market probably miss the scene of thousands of coins soaring and everyone prospering in the past big cycle. Many people are actually broken in this cycle. Small coins rise slowly and fall quickly, and they are back to the pre-liberation period.

1. In March, it was believed that the altcoin season in this cycle might be very mild.
The mildness lies in the large amplitude of the trend. It is normal to advance three times and retreat one or advance three and retreat two. Unexpectedly, the prophecy came true. Since April, many altcoins have been cut in half, and it is common to fall by 60% or 70%. It is really a three-fold rise and a two-fold fall or even a larger amplitude.
The core reason is:
The funds from the big cake ETF only embrace the big cake;
The size is too large, and I should be the first to see the future trend from the perspective of market value. This cycle starts with billions of US dollars, and there are many tens of billions of US dollars. The larger the size, the more compressed the amplitude space is.

2. If we use the US stock market as an analogy, the future structure of the currency market will be very clear.
The US stock market is now very stratified: the leading Big3 and Mag7, nearly 100 second-tier market value stocks in the middle, and then thousands of small and medium-sized market value stocks. If we have to make an analogy, the strong mainstream such as PIXIN, ETH, BNB, and SOL are more like the second-tier market value stocks in the US stock market. They have performed very well in the past year and have risen a lot. The retracement range is also acceptable. They can keep up with Big3 and Mag7 before.

The rest of the currency market cottage is actually more like the Russell 2000 Index (a representative index of small-cap stocks in the US stock market). It has risen from the bottom but quickly deflated, and it is still a long way from the previous high.

3. How did the current cottage dilemma happen?

The hotness of the last cycle greatly gave rise to the size of crypto vc. The larger the size of VC, the more difficult it is to invest in small projects. In addition, I also have a group of founders with very good backgrounds entering the market, and jointly pushing up the valuation of the primary market. This year, I found that the market liquidity is not overflowing and the secondary market cannot handle such a high market value.
Another thing is that the application is far from landing, and the market is tired of reinventing the wheel without value creation

4. How to invest in the new normal
In the past, the currency market investment focused on timing (the bottom of a big cycle or the start of a big market, small coins soared after the big cake led), and in the future, both timing and currency selection will be emphasized (the importance of target screening is far greater than before)

#美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易
#比特币大会

Why are A-shares still not rising?
Answer: Because investors redeemed 540 billion.

Question 2: When will A-shares regain their upward momentum?
Answer: It is necessary to wait for investors' buying and redemption to reach a new balance. It is expected that the total position of active funds will fall to about 2 trillion.

Question 3: Why are bank stocks rising?
Answer: Because the market's largest short-selling active funds basically have no allocation of the four major banks, and the largest long-selling national team has been passively increasing its positions through broad-based inflows.

Question 4: Why did active funds flow in 3 trillion from 2021 to 2023, foreign capital increased its positions by 500 billion, and A-shares fell back again?
Answer: IPOs of 2 trillion, and major shareholders reduced their holdings by 1 trillion.

#美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易
#比特币大会

Bitcoin is about to break through 70,000, and the acceleration market is coming. What should retail investors pay attention to?

Bitcoin once again stood on the 120-day moving average two days ago and resumed the bullish trend. This time, it did not choose a false breakthrough trend line, but chose to adjust in a narrow range around 67,000. As long as it does not fall below the current oscillation range, the trend is healthy.

The approval of the ETF this week, as well as the Bitcoin conference and Trump's speech at the weekend, have created the best external environment for Bitcoin to hit 7w. Since the high point on March 14, Bitcoin has been washed for 4 months. This time, it is finally going to break through the trend line. We are about to usher in the acceleration of this round of bull market, with a target of 10w~13w by the end of the year.

Teach you how to avoid pits, maximize profits, and avoid missing out in the acceleration market.

The first point to note: the cycle is very short.

Although I have always said that the second half of the year is the second half of this round of bull market, the actual acceleration market will not really give you half a year. The time window for real acceleration may be only 3 months. If you are a little confused for a while, the bull market will be over.

The second point of attention: Don't short.

In every round of bull market, there are a group of people who are firmly bearish. As long as the big cake reaches a new high, they will short. No one knows why they are so obsessed with shorting. The profit and loss ratio is extremely poor, and they all go bankrupt in the end. In the bull market, no matter how incredible the rise is, don't short, it is better to chase high, at least time will be on your side.

The third point of attention: Don't underestimate the cottage.

Especially in this round, the long-term wash of the cottage has been demonized by the outside world, but I can say that for retail investors, the only way to get rich is to look at the cottage. Especially the new coins issued in the bear market, which have not moved so far, should be paid more attention. Chase when it rises, and give up the left side.

The fourth point of attention: Give up the hair

Wait for the bear market to hair, hair under the accelerated market is a waste of time. Putting funds in the pledge agreement is a waste of opportunity cost. Don't look at many coins that have fallen by 80% or 90%. Pull up, and it will rise in a moment.
#比特币大会
#美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易

How to choose MEME label teaching: How to choose celebrity narratives

Take Musk's laser eye yesterday as an example. First, if you want to catch some celebrity narratives, you should be prepared to follow these celebrities who are more influential, such as: Musk. A series of related figures + PUMP some official personnel + many well-known foreign OGs. Opportunities with strong ability to bring goods are reserved for those who are prepared.

Like yesterday, after Musk changed his avatar, we should immediately check whether there are related plates on the chain, whether it is Ethereum or SOL, and then look at the purchasing power and price. Is it worth getting on board? Is there enough FOMO?

In the same way, we see that the influencers in our follow-up list have published something about MEME or CA, and we can seek opportunities from them

How to avoid being harvested by fake celebrities

Celebrity stories are not so popular now, but let's give you some popular science

First, let's look at the person's follow list and see his fan base. If many fans don't have any tweets or their names are relatively uniform, they are probably fake

Another way is that there is no warm-up before the coin is issued, and most of the tweets are reposts with little interaction, which is probably fake

Also, the tweet data is good in all aspects, so we need to check his likes and reposts. If it is the same as the first type, most of them have only one post, and the tweet data is probably fake

The above are some of my own skills. Now many tools have detection and monitoring functions, and everyone can try to use them
#美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易
#美国大选如何影响加密产业？
#拜登退选

How to select MEME targets

1: How to screen the CTO (community takeover after the dealer runs away) narrative

I usually use GMGN as a line-viewing tool to determine whether the following targets have the potential for gold MEME or have the opportunity to make profits

Home page We need to determine whether it is a real CTO or a fake CTO

Specifically how to judge:

1: First, we look at the RUG time of the DEV. If this DEV chooses RUG when it is just launched and the coin holding address is in the case of several people, and then launches later, then we can roughly judge that this is a fake CTO. Imagine that if this DEV is more optimistic about his narrative and has three sets of RUG when it is not profitable when it is launched, then he probably has a rat warehouse. The purpose is to use the illusion of CTO to attract us to get on board and then ship out on the outside market. Of course, it is not 100%. This kind of plate has no profit or gold MEME potential when it is launched. Of course, it is probably a mess.

2: How to judge the real CTO
Home page:
The coin holding of this plate is first of all at least 50-80 holdings, and then the internal plate reaches about 30k DEV has already made a profit and exited the market. There are relatively more people leaving comments in the comment area of ​​PUMP. Then we start filtering.

Second:

First, look at the front-row holdings. Second, look at the CTO group. Is there anyone in VC? Including the number of VCs. Has this CTO team participated in any projects before?

Third:

We check the number of people on Twitter. Search the symbol $ and attach the project's coin name. Check whether there are well-known or influential people promoting on Twitter. See if they are promoting it in the external market or in the early stage. If it is very early, we have to observe.

Fourth: We look at whether there is a correlation between the front-row holdings and then judge whether it is appropriate.

Fifth:
We choose where to get on the bus. Take the following plate as an example. The highest is ATH200K, then it callbacks to 50K. Then the community is still active in this situation. Look at the front-row holdings and shipments. Look at the trading volume on the plate. K-line trend. If the above are relatively healthy, then we can consider getting on the bus at this position or at 30k. There will probably be profits. The following is a bundled launch of DEV with mice. Also, try not to touch the bundled launcher

Summary: These are some personal experiences, and there are inevitably some shortcomings or inaccuracies. You still need to observe more.

There are still many short positions still holding orders to 41,000. The market really needs fuel to rise.

You must learn to follow the trend, rather than blindly looking at shorts and longs. You must follow the trend and switch between long and short positions. If the bullish trend is strong, you go short as soon as it rises. If you continue to increase your short position when it rises sharply, you must have a problem with your brain.

#拜登退选

Today, the US stock market peaked and pulled back before the market opened. It will consolidate at a high level. The US dollar peaked and began to fall. The expectation of interest rate cuts has been fully raised. Funds will flow into non-US and gold, silver and crypto. The new US dollar tide has begun.

The bonus of the cryptocurrency circle has disappeared! Now the difficulty of speculating in cryptocurrencies is approaching that of speculating in the Nasdaq index! Bitcoin has become a mature investment product, and everyone’s opponents have become various top hedge funds! Everyone’s opponents have changed from retail investors to Wall Street elites!

Some people are still waiting for the bull market in November and December. Unless the shooting incident makes a 180-degree turn. The market is pricing in Trump's election. The US stock market will soon show a concentrated early bull market with the hype of interest rate cuts and Trump concept sectors. Are you still thinking of waiting until the end of the year to rise again for the theme of the winning party in the election?

#美国大选如何影响加密产业？

The second half of this bull market

This wave of market is very split. Half of the people think that it is just a rebound after the impact of the Trump incident and insist on being bearish; the other half think that the bull market is back.

Especially the potential selling pressure of 138,900 bitcoins in Mentougou, the market fluctuations in the next period of time will be very large. In addition, this round of market is moving faster and has its own adjustment needs, which makes retail investors jump back and forth under extreme emotions and constantly question their own judgments.

The differences will be more serious in the foreseeable future:

ETH ETF will start trading on the 23rd

Trump attends the Bitcoin Conference

Mentougou starts transfer testing, huge selling pressure

Liquidity is seriously insufficient

To get rid of the influence of emotions, we need to think and judge from a longer-term perspective (the next year). I think we only need to hold on to two points:

- The most relaxed crypto regulatory environment in history
- Continuous capital inflow of ETFs

Supporting crypto is no longer just Trump's slogan. For Trump and the vice president, supporting crypto is financial innovation, their political label, and their political foothold. They cannot give up this position.

In such a political environment, crypto regulation will gradually become transparent, paving the way for the batch entry of institutions and retail investors, and more and more crypto-friendly banking businesses will emerge.

In addition, more and more ETFs will be approved. The batch approval of ETFs is inevitable and irreversible, which directly builds a bridge between traditional funds and the crypto circle.

Another point that I think is the most critical is that a good regulatory environment can allow traditional institutions such as BlackRock, Morgan, and Citi to enter this industry with confidence and boldness, and promote capital/financial innovation. These are all things that will happen in the next year.

The next six months will be the second half of this bull market, and it has just begun. Trump's shooting incident just happened to trigger the market in the second half. My judgment on the market in the second half is still firm and bullish so far. The current judgment is very important. If the judgment is wrong, it is likely to miss the entire second half.

Looking back at every round of bull market, there will be a group of people who are firmly bearish, and there will be repeated extreme emotions. From the perspective of the main force, they need the market to have such emotions. If everyone is unanimously bullish, the market will not be sustainable.

Token benefits, unlocking, and important events in June.

June 3: CEEK - CEEK 3.0
June 3: DUSK - 3.5M EUR bond issuance
June 4: MINA - Berkeley upgrade
June 4: MPL - SyrupFi launch webinar
June 5: ATOM - V17 upgrade
June 5: Coinbase Smart Wallet launch
June 6: FRONT - Selfchain mainnet
June 10: RNDR - Apple WWDC 2024
June 10: ZKJ - Polyhedra staking
June 11: FET - ASI merger
June 12: US - CPI
June 13: STX - Stacks showcase
June 13: Bithumb - ALEX delisting decision
June 13: AR - AO token launch
June 14: CHZ - EUR 2024 starts
June 14: CYBER - Mainnet staking
June 18: Bithumb - Delisting decision GALA
June 18: XLM - Mainnet upgrade voting
June 19: FLOW - Testnet network upgrade
June 20: BNB - Tycho hard fork
June 24: MTL - snapshot
June 25: BTT - BTFS storage reward halving
June 25: SD - Super burn
June 26: THETA - Edge node client release
June 26: FLUX - Fluxedge Alpha Public
June 27: First Trump/Biden debate
June 28: VET - VeBetterDAO

Token unlock

APT - $100 million June 12
STRK - $80M June 15
ARB - $100M June 16
UNI - $90M June 16
OP - $80M June 30

Major Announcements

Ethereum Spot ETF Launch
FTM - S Rebranding
UNI - Fee Switch Approval
GAL - G Rebranding
APE - Apechain Mainnet
GHST - Gotchichain Mainnet
RDNT - Radiant V3
ACE - Fusionist Game Release
AIOZ - AIOZ W3AI

Meme coins provide everyone with a gamble with a bigger odds, not a winning rate (the winning rate of betting on memes is actually not high), and they are launched fairly and fully circulated. Playing with Nima value coins, I don’t know where the value is. The key is that the time cycle is also very long and the capital efficiency is too low.

For most friends in the circle, whether it is value investment or technical analysis, the final result is also a high probability of losing money. Without long-term training, it is also difficult to have relevant money-making skills.

Since coming to the currency circle is gambling, why not play a fairer and larger odds? And you can see the results immediately, either getting rich or going to zero. I can understand this approach, and I don’t think the choice is necessarily wrong. (Because you have to gamble with a small amount of money)

For friends who invest in value, it is essentially gambling. But it is nothing more than gambling with more skills. Whether it is the four-year halving rule, the capital rotation rule, the fundamental rule, or the macro narrative, decisions can be made according to some long-term rules.

It cannot be said that it will definitely win, it can only be said that gambling is more skillful and can live longer. Generally, the funds used for value investing are larger, and the butt determines the head, so they tend to adopt a more stable approach. Without ensuring the final victory, they will bet on some targets that are obviously more stable and more in line with long-term value.

#meme板块关注热点